Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Low-topped convection will continue across parts of the West tonight, in association with a deep mid/upper-level trough that continues to move inland from the eastern Pacific. Cool surface temperatures will generally limit instability and the severe threat, though a stronger storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will remain possible through the evening. Clusters of generally weak convection are ongoing across parts of the Southeast this evening, where modest instability is in place ahead of a weakening midlevel shortwave trough that is traversing the region. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL Panhandle, where somewhat richer low-level moisture is in place, but a general displacement between stronger large-scale ascent and more favorable instability is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Low-topped convection will continue across parts of the West tonight, in association with a deep mid/upper-level trough that continues to move inland from the eastern Pacific. Cool surface temperatures will generally limit instability and the severe threat, though a stronger storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will remain possible through the evening. Clusters of generally weak convection are ongoing across parts of the Southeast this evening, where modest instability is in place ahead of a weakening midlevel shortwave trough that is traversing the region. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL Panhandle, where somewhat richer low-level moisture is in place, but a general displacement between stronger large-scale ascent and more favorable instability is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Low-topped convection will continue across parts of the West tonight, in association with a deep mid/upper-level trough that continues to move inland from the eastern Pacific. Cool surface temperatures will generally limit instability and the severe threat, though a stronger storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will remain possible through the evening. Clusters of generally weak convection are ongoing across parts of the Southeast this evening, where modest instability is in place ahead of a weakening midlevel shortwave trough that is traversing the region. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL Panhandle, where somewhat richer low-level moisture is in place, but a general displacement between stronger large-scale ascent and more favorable instability is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Low-topped convection will continue across parts of the West tonight, in association with a deep mid/upper-level trough that continues to move inland from the eastern Pacific. Cool surface temperatures will generally limit instability and the severe threat, though a stronger storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will remain possible through the evening. Clusters of generally weak convection are ongoing across parts of the Southeast this evening, where modest instability is in place ahead of a weakening midlevel shortwave trough that is traversing the region. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL Panhandle, where somewhat richer low-level moisture is in place, but a general displacement between stronger large-scale ascent and more favorable instability is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 03/02/2024 Read more

MD 0181 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE SIERRA IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of the higher terrain over the Sierra in central California Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 011846Z - 020045Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to gradually increase through the afternoon and early evening hours at higher elevations along portions of the Sierra Nevada. Blizzard conditions should also become more widespread as snowfall and winds increase. DISCUSSION...Persistent precipitation continues across the northern half of CA as the primary trough axis associated with an upstream upper wave approaches the West Coast. VWP observations from southern OR to central CA have shown an uptick in mid-level winds over the past couple of hours - particularly within a belt of enhanced mid-level moisture notable in recent IR/water-vapor imagery. This mid-level flow is forecast to continue to increase through the afternoon and early evening hours as the trough approaches, which will bolster orographic ascent along the portions of the Sierra Nevada range. Latest surface observations and web cams continue to show areas of moderate to heavy snowfall ongoing roughly above 5 kft. Further intensification of snowfall rates - as high as 2-3 in/hour by late afternoon/early evening - is anticipated as ascent increases. Although ridge line winds in excess of 100 mph have already been reported at a few locations, wind gusts between 60-75 mph should become more common between 5-8 kft as stronger 800-700 mb winds approach the region. This should promote an increase in coverage of blizzard conditions heading into the late afternoon and evening hours. ..Moore.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 38221929 37951905 37801899 37661897 37541905 37471914 37521936 37751962 38432028 39062067 39572091 39802086 39862059 39752039 39202011 38972004 38531963 38221929 Read more