Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A trough will amplify across the western CONUS on D3/Tue and D4/Wed with lee cyclogenesis in the central Plains and strengthening mid-level flow across the Southwest. This will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D3/Tue- Southern High Plains... Lee cyclogenesis and a deeply mixed atmosphere will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains on Tuesday. The worst conditions are expected across portions of Far West Texas where mid-level flow will be somewhat stronger and mixing is expected to be deeper. ...D4/Wed - Southern High Plains... On Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains. This is a result of strengthening mid-level flow (50-60 mph at 500mb) and a deepening surface cyclone in the vicinity of western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Much of this region has been dry over the past week and significant drying will continue leading up to Wednesday. Therefore, a broad region is likely to have significant fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential has diminished over New England and Florida, and general thunderstorm probabilities have been removed. A few lightning flashes remain possible over the Pacific Northwest region, though severe storms are not expected. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential has diminished over New England and Florida, and general thunderstorm probabilities have been removed. A few lightning flashes remain possible over the Pacific Northwest region, though severe storms are not expected. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential has diminished over New England and Florida, and general thunderstorm probabilities have been removed. A few lightning flashes remain possible over the Pacific Northwest region, though severe storms are not expected. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential has diminished over New England and Florida, and general thunderstorm probabilities have been removed. A few lightning flashes remain possible over the Pacific Northwest region, though severe storms are not expected. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential has diminished over New England and Florida, and general thunderstorm probabilities have been removed. A few lightning flashes remain possible over the Pacific Northwest region, though severe storms are not expected. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential has diminished over New England and Florida, and general thunderstorm probabilities have been removed. A few lightning flashes remain possible over the Pacific Northwest region, though severe storms are not expected. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential has diminished over New England and Florida, and general thunderstorm probabilities have been removed. A few lightning flashes remain possible over the Pacific Northwest region, though severe storms are not expected. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. Read more

MD 0215 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST OHIO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania and western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 101613Z - 102015Z SUMMARY...Snow squall potential will persist into the early afternoon hours across northeast Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania, and western New York. DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, a combination of broken cloud cover and low/mid-level cold air advection over the upper OH river valley and lower Great Lakes region has allowed for low-level lapse rates to steepen to 7-8 C/km. These steep lapse rates are supporting shallow convection across central to western PA with a history of producing snow squall conditions (reduced visibility to 0.25 mile at times with moderate snowfall rates and wind gusts upwards of 25-30 mph). The expectation is for this thermodynamic regime to largely remain in place through at least early afternoon before cold air advection in the 925-850 mb layer wanes later in the day. As low/mid-level destabilization continues for the next few hours, SBCAPE values should approach 250 J/kg, resulting in an intensification of precipitation/snowfall rates within convective snow showers. Recent high-res guidance suggests additional snow bands will propagate off of Lake Erie through early afternoon into northeast OH, PA, and western NY. One such band is evident in regional reflectivity across far western NY, lending confidence in this overall scenario. Consequently, the potential for snow squalls should continue for the next several hours. ..Moore.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41328191 41648123 42557910 42757886 43057888 43307869 43187713 42927671 42457659 41767653 41117684 40297758 39927815 39757875 39727937 39747984 40028047 40508133 40828171 41328191 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore, despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses remain dormant/freeze-cured. Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow afternoon. Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to carry fire. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore, despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses remain dormant/freeze-cured. Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow afternoon. Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to carry fire. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore, despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses remain dormant/freeze-cured. Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow afternoon. Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to carry fire. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore, despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses remain dormant/freeze-cured. Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow afternoon. Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to carry fire. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore, despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses remain dormant/freeze-cured. Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow afternoon. Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to carry fire. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore, despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses remain dormant/freeze-cured. Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow afternoon. Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to carry fire. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more