Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/15/2024 Read more

MD 0258 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA...SOUTHERN MS/AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...portions of central/southern LA...southern MS/AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151445Z - 151645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing across parts of Louisiana into southern Mississippi late this morning. Large hail and damaging gusts, along with a tornado or two will be possible across the MCD area through the afternoon. A watch will likely be needed within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Occasionally strong storms have been ongoing this morning across central Alabama across WW 51. This activity will persist and local watch extensions may be needed across the Birmingham forecast area in the short term to address locally damaging gust and hail concerns. To the south/southwest across LA into southern MS, stronger heating is noted with temperatures approaching the mid 70s amid 70-73 F dewpoints. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer are already supporting moderate to strong destabilization. Visible satellite imagery depicts agitated cumulus along/ahead of the southeast-sagging outflow. Furthermore, water vapor imagery indicates a compact shortwave trough over east TX. This is expected to overspread LA/MS this afternoon, providing large-scale ascent across the very moist and unstable boundary-layer. Morning CAMs depict increasing storm coverage by midday and this seems reasonable given short term trends in observational data this morning. Vertical shear will be somewhat marginal initially, but increasing through the day. Supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts will be the main concern. However, enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs are noted in forecast soundings, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A new watch will likely be needed for portions of LA into parts of southern MS/AL within the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Goss.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31668589 31308641 30858710 30508774 29719017 29639148 29859300 30179343 30699363 31239360 31729329 31909270 32508605 32418578 32148567 31858582 31668589 Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE JCT TO 40 SW BWD. ..LEITMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC307-319-411-151640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCULLOCH MASON SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE JCT TO 40 SW BWD. ..LEITMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC307-319-411-151640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCULLOCH MASON SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE JCT TO 40 SW BWD. ..LEITMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC307-319-411-151640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCULLOCH MASON SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE JCT TO 40 SW BWD. ..LEITMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC307-319-411-151640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCULLOCH MASON SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE JCT TO 40 SW BWD. ..LEITMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC307-319-411-151640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCULLOCH MASON SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE JCT TO 40 SW BWD. ..LEITMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC307-319-411-151640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCULLOCH MASON SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0257 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 52... FOR CENTRAL TEXAS/EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...central Texas/Edwards Plateau vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 52... Valid 151409Z - 151615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 52 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for large hail will continue into early afternoon across central Texas and the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Additional storm development is expected by midday. DISCUSSION...A couple of supercells over southeastern portions of the San Angelo forecast area have likely produced large hail this morning, with MRMS MESH signatures as high as 1.75 inches. This activity is likely elevated, spreading north of a southward sagging cold front across the region. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates noted in 12z RAOBS, combined with MUCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg and strong vertical shear will support a continued hail risk as these cells track east/northeast. Some gradual weakening is expected with any cells that develop further northeast into the deeper cool air across Fort Worth forecast area. Additional storms are expected to develop with south and east extent across WW 52 by midday. Heating has already allowed temperatures to warm into the low/mid 70s ahead of the sagging cold front. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will aid in strong destabilization by early afternoon. Very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) will be possible, along with isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado. With a 17z watch expiration time, it is possible a small local extension in space/time may be needed. Additional watch issuance is also possible later this afternoon toward the I-35 corridor across eastern portions of WFO Austin/San Antonio into parts of WFO Houston. This area will be addressed in a separate MCD. ..Leitman/Goss.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29570143 30130151 31719977 31799962 31929887 31809841 31149803 30659799 29919859 28939960 28500054 29100098 29570143 Read more

WW 52 SEVERE TSTM TX 151130Z - 151700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 52 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 630 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Edwards Plateau of Texas * Effective this Friday morning from 630 AM until NOON CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercells may persist for a few hours this morning near a slow-moving cold front. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and an isolated tornado may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of Junction TX to 80 miles southwest of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 51... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more