Severe Storms

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0253 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...Northeast TX...Southern AR...Northern LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 150753Z - 151000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong gusts possible overnight. DISCUSSION...A strong storm with some supercell characteristics has recently developed in Union County, AR, along the eastern fringe of extensive elevated convection ongoing near the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions. While this particular cell will soon be undercut by southward-sagging outflow, an additional strong storm or two could evolve from near the LA/AR border to northeast TX, within a low-level warm advection regime. For storms that can become rooted near the surface, MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization, with a threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. The KSHV VWP depicts rather strong low-level shear/SRH, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any cell that can become surface-based. However, in general, the longevity of any organized storms is expected to be relatively limited, and any severe threat likely to be remain mostly isolated overnight. ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32929492 33279395 33519312 33519243 33439175 33319144 32959132 32529142 32359180 32279260 32219341 32239388 32339506 32929492 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week. Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western North American blocking regime breaks down. The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle and latter portions of the work week. This may provide support for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, it appears that low-level moisture return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization. With shear also tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears generally low, though it may not be completely negligible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week. Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western North American blocking regime breaks down. The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle and latter portions of the work week. This may provide support for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, it appears that low-level moisture return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization. With shear also tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears generally low, though it may not be completely negligible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week. Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western North American blocking regime breaks down. The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle and latter portions of the work week. This may provide support for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, it appears that low-level moisture return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization. With shear also tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears generally low, though it may not be completely negligible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week. Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western North American blocking regime breaks down. The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle and latter portions of the work week. This may provide support for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, it appears that low-level moisture return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization. With shear also tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears generally low, though it may not be completely negligible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week. Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western North American blocking regime breaks down. The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle and latter portions of the work week. This may provide support for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, it appears that low-level moisture return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization. With shear also tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears generally low, though it may not be completely negligible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week. Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western North American blocking regime breaks down. The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle and latter portions of the work week. This may provide support for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, it appears that low-level moisture return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization. With shear also tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears generally low, though it may not be completely negligible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week. Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western North American blocking regime breaks down. The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle and latter portions of the work week. This may provide support for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, it appears that low-level moisture return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization. With shear also tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears generally low, though it may not be completely negligible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week. Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western North American blocking regime breaks down. The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle and latter portions of the work week. This may provide support for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, it appears that low-level moisture return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization. With shear also tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears generally low, though it may not be completely negligible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week. Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western North American blocking regime breaks down. The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle and latter portions of the work week. This may provide support for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, it appears that low-level moisture return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization. With shear also tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears generally low, though it may not be completely negligible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range model output indicates that large-scale mid/upper trough amplification may proceed east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic into early next week. Thereafter, it appears that the initial significant digging short wave perturbation will bottom out offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, before returning northeastward, as the upstream western North American blocking regime breaks down. The remnants of a weakening mid/upper low may then emerge from the Southwest as a modest wave progressing east of the southern Rockies through the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard during the middle and latter portions of the work week. This may provide support for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, and across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast into southern Mid Atlantic vicinity. However, it appears that low-level moisture return will be limited in the wake of a preceding intrusion of cold and/or dry air through much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin. This will probably tend to inhibit destabilization. With shear also tending to remain marginal, the risk for severe weather appears generally low, though it may not be completely negligible. Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 15 08:50:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more