Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

MD 0527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0527 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...parts of east-central Oklahoma into far northern Texas and western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261753Z - 262000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms capable of tornadoes and very large hail may develop this afternoon over parts of eastern Oklahoma southward into the Red River Valley and toward far western Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible satellite clearly show the dryline progressing across central OK and into western North Texas, with gradually increasing CU fields to the east. Cool outflow remains over much of northeast OK into northwest AR, but dewpoints continue to rise just south and west of the existing outflow boundary. The 18Z OUN sounding shows an uncapped air mass and strong instability just ahead of the dryline. Even greater surface theta-e values exist south and east of the area, contributing to over 3000 MUCAPE. Shear is also strong across the area, with around 60 kt effective deep layer shear, and 0-1 SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 for most of the region. As heating continues ahead of the dryline, and clouds erode, a narrow zone of supercell potential will develop and at least isolated cells are expected later this afternoon. The environment will favor tornadic supercells, with potential for strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. The aggregated threat area may be relatively small in time and space, however, any supercells that endure may produce significant severe weather. ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35209394 34799383 34269480 33879590 33419723 33369764 33659761 34869718 35479698 36269679 36939663 37089663 37249636 37129582 36919547 36449532 35879514 35539488 35369464 35209394 Read more

WW 0139 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 139 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529 ..WENDT..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 139 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC089-262040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCURTAIN TXC001-027-035-037-063-067-073-085-099-113-119-139-145-147-159- 161-183-193-203-213-217-223-231-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-315- 331-333-343-349-365-379-387-395-397-401-423-425-439-449-459-467- 499-262040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE BOWIE CAMP CASS CHEROKEE COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS DELTA ELLIS FALLS FANNIN FRANKLIN FREESTONE GREGG HAMILTON HARRISON HENDERSON HILL HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON Read more

WW 0141 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 141 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 141 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-262040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-041-061-063-069-077-079- 081-085-091-095-097-099-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-131-133-135-143-145-147-262040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY Read more

WW 0140 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 140 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD...TOP...EAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 140 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-129-133-137-145-155-165-193-262040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY WOODBURY KSC013-117-131-201-262040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN MARSHALL NEMAHA WASHINGTON MOC005-087-147-262040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON HOLT NODAWAY Read more

MD 0528 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern and central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261804Z - 261930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Elevated convection north of the advancing warm front may pose a risk for isolated hail through the early afternoon. DISCUSSION...As of 1800 UTC, regional radar analysis showed developing thunderstorms north of a warm front across pats of northern and central IA. Strong low-level warm advection is occurring ahead of the front as an upper trough begins to lift northeastward out of the central Plains. As broad scale ascent and warm advection continue, elevated buoyancy will likely support scattered thunderstorms. Steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km and around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support occasional strong elevated updrafts. Wind profiles are expected to continue to strengthen during the day supporting a mixed supercell/cluster mode. Large hail will be possible with the more robust cores above the cooler surface temperatures. A greater severe risk may develop later this afternoon as the surface layer gradually destabilizes. Given the elevated nature of the convection limiting coverage of stronger storms a WW is unlikely. ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41649426 41919535 42169565 42479576 42839600 43219611 43399605 43479553 43459452 43279410 43059383 42749365 42449351 42099338 41739342 41499354 41429386 41649426 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more