Severe Storms

WW 0139 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 139 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 139 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC089-262240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCURTAIN TXC001-027-035-037-063-067-073-085-099-113-119-139-145-147-159- 161-183-193-203-213-217-223-231-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-315- 331-333-343-349-365-379-387-395-397-401-423-425-439-449-459-467- 499-262240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE BOWIE CAMP CASS CHEROKEE COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS DELTA ELLIS FALLS FANNIN FRANKLIN FREESTONE GREGG HAMILTON HARRISON HENDERSON HILL HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN Read more

WW 139 TORNADO OK TX 261510Z - 262300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 139 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Oklahoma Central and Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1010 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected increase in coverage and intensity through the late morning and afternoon, with a few severe thunderstorms possible. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Temple TX to 65 miles north northeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 138... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0140 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 140 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MHK TO 25 SE BIE TO 10 NNE LNK TO 20 WSW OLU TO 40 N GRI TO 40 NNE ONL. ..WENDT..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD...TOP...EAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 140 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-129-133-137-145-155-165-193-262240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY WOODBURY NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-043-051-053-055-097-107-119- 127-131-133-139-141-147-153-155-167-173-177-179-262240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BURT BUTLER CASS CEDAR COLFAX CUMING DAKOTA DIXON DODGE DOUGLAS JOHNSON KNOX MADISON NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE PIERCE PLATTE RICHARDSON SARPY SAUNDERS STANTON THURSTON WASHINGTON WAYNE Read more

MD 0532 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 140... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0532 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 140... Valid 262014Z - 262115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 140 continues. SUMMARY...Well-developed supercells are moving into an environment very favorable for tornadoes. A corridor of heightened risk for significant tornadoes is emerging across eastern/southeastern NE. DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms across southeastern NE have rapidly evolved into well-organized supercells over the past few hours. The environment ahead of these storms is becoming increasingly favorable for significant tornadoes near the modifying warm front over the NE/IA border. ESRH of 300 m2/s2 and STP values of 2-3 from SPC mesoanalysis indicate the environment could support strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes with these organized supercells. Current radar data shows storm motions of 215-225 deg at 30-35 kt. This would place these storms near or just west of the Omaha metro in the next 60-90 minutes. ..Lyons.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 41789633 41669599 41499580 41339570 41099567 40889567 40739566 40549576 40429602 40369619 40289642 40369661 40529661 40749666 40859690 41039710 41199721 41559719 41569714 41719676 41789633 Read more

MD 0530 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 140... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...FAR NORTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN IOWA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0530 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Nebraska...far northern Kansas and western Iowa. Concerning...Tornado Watch 140... Valid 261931Z - 262100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 140 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for large to very large hail and tornadoes continues across WW140. The severe risk should gradually expand northeastward toward the NE/IA border this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed and matured east of the dryline across central and eastern NE. Several tornadoes have been reported thus far with the northern most cell over Greeley county, NE. While the storm remains in a favorable environment, destabilization is slowly waning as it moves into a more stable air mass farther north. Destabilization ahead of the storms to the south is expected to continue with the greater threat potentially shifting toward the more southern storms as the warm sector continues to narrow to the north. Strong low-level shear (ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2) near the warm front and large buoyancy will continue to support a risk for tornadoes (some significant) and large to very large hail. Additional storm development remains possible across southeastern NE and far northern KS, though residual capping may limit coverage somewhat. The severe threat should slowly expand eastward into parts of western IA later this afternoon or evening across the remainder of WW140. ..Lyons.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 39559565 39469602 39499632 39639674 39889695 40239708 40709735 41039774 41329840 41449882 41869906 42349895 42679878 42839774 42649674 42249604 41699559 41289537 40859524 40519524 40119536 39559565 Read more

MD 0529 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 139... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...parts of northern into northeastern Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 139... Valid 261856Z - 262100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 139 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of tornadic supercells persist along a corridor roughly from the Waco area into northeast Texas. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells, some tornadic, is ongoing just north and northeast of Waco TX. These cells are on the north side of a weak surface theta-e gradient, with southwest winds just off the surface aiding advection/inflow into the storm region. VWPs also show 0-1 SRH over 200 m2/s2 which, along with the moist unstable air mass, will continue to favor tornadoes within the supercells. The threat may persist downstream through late afternoon given increased heating from eastern TX into LA, with persistent southerly winds aiding warm advection. Additional cells may reform anywhere ahead of the dryline as well, currently west of the ongoing tornadic supercells. Though low-level winds are more veered in that area, shear will continue to favor supercells. ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 31679660 31379772 31499790 31689782 32269717 32869595 32999566 33039518 32859491 32539477 32369479 32139521 31679660 Read more

WW 0142 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0142 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0140 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 140 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532 ..WENDT..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD...TOP...EAX...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 140 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-129-133-137-145-155-165-193-262140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY WOODBURY KSC013-117-131-201-262140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN MARSHALL NEMAHA WASHINGTON MOC005-087-147-262140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0139 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 139 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 139 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC089-262140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCCURTAIN TXC001-027-035-037-063-067-073-085-099-113-119-139-145-147-159- 161-183-193-203-213-217-223-231-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-315- 331-333-343-349-365-379-387-395-397-401-423-425-439-449-459-467- 499-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE BOWIE CAMP CASS CHEROKEE COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS DELTA ELLIS FALLS FANNIN FRANKLIN FREESTONE GREGG HAMILTON HARRISON HENDERSON HILL HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN Read more

WW 0141 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 141 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 141 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-262140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-041-061-063-069-077-079- 081-085-091-095-097-099-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-123- 125-127-131-133-135-143-145-147-262140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531. A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information. Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential. ..Gleason.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. Read more