Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0630 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0630 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...northern and western Illinois. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041856Z - 042030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...There is an increased threat for damaging wind gusts from thunderstorms for several hours this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...RAP mesoanalysis shows a mostly uncapped airmass ahead of a cold front moving across the Midwest. Expect destabilization to increase through the afternoon as mid-60s dewpoints continue to advect into the region and temperatures warm into the low 80s. Substantial instability (~1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear (25-30 knots per DVN VWP) will lead to some loosely organized multicell thunderstorms along the front later this afternoon. Near peak heating (~21Z), there may be a few hour window with strong to severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. However, this threat is expected to be mainly driven by daytime heating and therefore, the threat should wane by dusk. Convective trends will be monitored, and if decent storm coverage and intensity appears imminent, a severe thunderstorm watch will be considered. ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39139043 39429084 39919124 40479132 41029104 41959038 42318962 42348840 40638832 39188944 39139043 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...20Z Update... ...Far West Texas into TX Hill Country/Central TX... Outflow-augmented cold front continues to surge southward across the Permian Basin. Development along the front has been relatively short-lived thus far, primarily due to the undercutting of the updrafts. Even so, buoyancy is building north of the front, so more storm maturation and increasing severe potential appears possible north of the front. A more thermodynamically favorable environment exists south of the surging cold front, where there is a greater potential for surface-based storms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. This initially more discrete activity will likely increase in coverage later this evening as the shortwave trough currently moving through northern Mexico reaches Far West Texas. Some potential for upscale growth exists as forcing increasing, with the resulting MCS then pushing eastward through the Hill Country. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards with this convective line. However, ample low-level moisture and veering low-level flow could support a few line-embedded QLCS tornadoes. ...Western Illinois... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #630, the airmass ahead of the southeastward-progressing cold front will continue to destabilize as dewpoints climb into the mid-60s and temperatures warm into the low 80s. Substantial instability (~1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear will lead to some loosely organized multicell thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts along and ahead of the front later this afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...TX/southern OK/extreme southeastern NM... Not much change for this outlook update other than a minor southward shift of severe probabilities across far southeast NM and West TX to account for the projected cold front position by mid afternoon. Still expecting widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to form this afternoon along and behind the cold front over west TX and southeastern NM, as well as ahead of the cold front, near the dryline and over strongly heated, relatively high elevations west of the Pecos Valley. The stronger updrafts will attain supercell characteristics and pose a large-hail threat on both sides of the front, with severe-wind and tornado potential more prevalent to its south. Forecast soundings south of the front indicate veering and increasing flow with height which will become very favorable for supercells. It still appears one or two dominant, prefrontal, mid/late-afternoon supercells may evolve and remain south of the front. The potential for a strong tornado in addition to giant hail will be the primary hazards with these warm sector supercells. Additional storm development is expected by early evening with an amassing of cold pools eventually expected, as southeasterly 850mb flow strengthens. A severe MCS will likely evolve during the evening and probably persist into the overnight as it moves east across portions of the Edwards Plateau and central TX. Have expanded wind probabilities farther east to account for a lingering threat for severe gusts and perhaps a localized risk for a tornado late as this activity moves east of I-35. ...North/northeast TX to mid Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes vicinity... A diurnal intensification of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected this afternoon within this general corridor from the Red River Valley northeastward into the IL/WI vicinity. With much of this region located in between larger-scale mid-level waves, modest kinematic fields will tend to limit overall storm organization and severe potential. Nonetheless, heating of a moist boundary layer will facilitate the development of moderate instability by early to mid afternoon. Mainly semi-organized bands of multicells and clusters thereof will occasionally result in sporadic potential for wind damage and large hail. It appears perhaps a corridor for greater wind damage potential may occur immediately ahead/downstream of an MCV moving east across the mid MS Valley. Model guidance indicates slightly greater organized line segments and wind potential later this afternoon from central into northern portions of IL. Have also expanded the MRGL northward into portions of WI where sufficient destabilization will occur ahead of a front and associated mid-level disturbance over the Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...20Z Update... ...Far West Texas into TX Hill Country/Central TX... Outflow-augmented cold front continues to surge southward across the Permian Basin. Development along the front has been relatively short-lived thus far, primarily due to the undercutting of the updrafts. Even so, buoyancy is building north of the front, so more storm maturation and increasing severe potential appears possible north of the front. A more thermodynamically favorable environment exists south of the surging cold front, where there is a greater potential for surface-based storms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. This initially more discrete activity will likely increase in coverage later this evening as the shortwave trough currently moving through northern Mexico reaches Far West Texas. Some potential for upscale growth exists as forcing increasing, with the resulting MCS then pushing eastward through the Hill Country. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards with this convective line. However, ample low-level moisture and veering low-level flow could support a few line-embedded QLCS tornadoes. ...Western Illinois... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #630, the airmass ahead of the southeastward-progressing cold front will continue to destabilize as dewpoints climb into the mid-60s and temperatures warm into the low 80s. Substantial instability (~1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear will lead to some loosely organized multicell thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts along and ahead of the front later this afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...TX/southern OK/extreme southeastern NM... Not much change for this outlook update other than a minor southward shift of severe probabilities across far southeast NM and West TX to account for the projected cold front position by mid afternoon. Still expecting widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to form this afternoon along and behind the cold front over west TX and southeastern NM, as well as ahead of the cold front, near the dryline and over strongly heated, relatively high elevations west of the Pecos Valley. The stronger updrafts will attain supercell characteristics and pose a large-hail threat on both sides of the front, with severe-wind and tornado potential more prevalent to its south. Forecast soundings south of the front indicate veering and increasing flow with height which will become very favorable for supercells. It still appears one or two dominant, prefrontal, mid/late-afternoon supercells may evolve and remain south of the front. The potential for a strong tornado in addition to giant hail will be the primary hazards with these warm sector supercells. Additional storm development is expected by early evening with an amassing of cold pools eventually expected, as southeasterly 850mb flow strengthens. A severe MCS will likely evolve during the evening and probably persist into the overnight as it moves east across portions of the Edwards Plateau and central TX. Have expanded wind probabilities farther east to account for a lingering threat for severe gusts and perhaps a localized risk for a tornado late as this activity moves east of I-35. ...North/northeast TX to mid Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes vicinity... A diurnal intensification of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected this afternoon within this general corridor from the Red River Valley northeastward into the IL/WI vicinity. With much of this region located in between larger-scale mid-level waves, modest kinematic fields will tend to limit overall storm organization and severe potential. Nonetheless, heating of a moist boundary layer will facilitate the development of moderate instability by early to mid afternoon. Mainly semi-organized bands of multicells and clusters thereof will occasionally result in sporadic potential for wind damage and large hail. It appears perhaps a corridor for greater wind damage potential may occur immediately ahead/downstream of an MCV moving east across the mid MS Valley. Model guidance indicates slightly greater organized line segments and wind potential later this afternoon from central into northern portions of IL. Have also expanded the MRGL northward into portions of WI where sufficient destabilization will occur ahead of a front and associated mid-level disturbance over the Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...20Z Update... ...Far West Texas into TX Hill Country/Central TX... Outflow-augmented cold front continues to surge southward across the Permian Basin. Development along the front has been relatively short-lived thus far, primarily due to the undercutting of the updrafts. Even so, buoyancy is building north of the front, so more storm maturation and increasing severe potential appears possible north of the front. A more thermodynamically favorable environment exists south of the surging cold front, where there is a greater potential for surface-based storms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. This initially more discrete activity will likely increase in coverage later this evening as the shortwave trough currently moving through northern Mexico reaches Far West Texas. Some potential for upscale growth exists as forcing increasing, with the resulting MCS then pushing eastward through the Hill Country. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards with this convective line. However, ample low-level moisture and veering low-level flow could support a few line-embedded QLCS tornadoes. ...Western Illinois... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #630, the airmass ahead of the southeastward-progressing cold front will continue to destabilize as dewpoints climb into the mid-60s and temperatures warm into the low 80s. Substantial instability (~1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear will lead to some loosely organized multicell thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts along and ahead of the front later this afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...TX/southern OK/extreme southeastern NM... Not much change for this outlook update other than a minor southward shift of severe probabilities across far southeast NM and West TX to account for the projected cold front position by mid afternoon. Still expecting widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to form this afternoon along and behind the cold front over west TX and southeastern NM, as well as ahead of the cold front, near the dryline and over strongly heated, relatively high elevations west of the Pecos Valley. The stronger updrafts will attain supercell characteristics and pose a large-hail threat on both sides of the front, with severe-wind and tornado potential more prevalent to its south. Forecast soundings south of the front indicate veering and increasing flow with height which will become very favorable for supercells. It still appears one or two dominant, prefrontal, mid/late-afternoon supercells may evolve and remain south of the front. The potential for a strong tornado in addition to giant hail will be the primary hazards with these warm sector supercells. Additional storm development is expected by early evening with an amassing of cold pools eventually expected, as southeasterly 850mb flow strengthens. A severe MCS will likely evolve during the evening and probably persist into the overnight as it moves east across portions of the Edwards Plateau and central TX. Have expanded wind probabilities farther east to account for a lingering threat for severe gusts and perhaps a localized risk for a tornado late as this activity moves east of I-35. ...North/northeast TX to mid Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes vicinity... A diurnal intensification of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected this afternoon within this general corridor from the Red River Valley northeastward into the IL/WI vicinity. With much of this region located in between larger-scale mid-level waves, modest kinematic fields will tend to limit overall storm organization and severe potential. Nonetheless, heating of a moist boundary layer will facilitate the development of moderate instability by early to mid afternoon. Mainly semi-organized bands of multicells and clusters thereof will occasionally result in sporadic potential for wind damage and large hail. It appears perhaps a corridor for greater wind damage potential may occur immediately ahead/downstream of an MCV moving east across the mid MS Valley. Model guidance indicates slightly greater organized line segments and wind potential later this afternoon from central into northern portions of IL. Have also expanded the MRGL northward into portions of WI where sufficient destabilization will occur ahead of a front and associated mid-level disturbance over the Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...20Z Update... ...Far West Texas into TX Hill Country/Central TX... Outflow-augmented cold front continues to surge southward across the Permian Basin. Development along the front has been relatively short-lived thus far, primarily due to the undercutting of the updrafts. Even so, buoyancy is building north of the front, so more storm maturation and increasing severe potential appears possible north of the front. A more thermodynamically favorable environment exists south of the surging cold front, where there is a greater potential for surface-based storms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. This initially more discrete activity will likely increase in coverage later this evening as the shortwave trough currently moving through northern Mexico reaches Far West Texas. Some potential for upscale growth exists as forcing increasing, with the resulting MCS then pushing eastward through the Hill Country. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards with this convective line. However, ample low-level moisture and veering low-level flow could support a few line-embedded QLCS tornadoes. ...Western Illinois... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #630, the airmass ahead of the southeastward-progressing cold front will continue to destabilize as dewpoints climb into the mid-60s and temperatures warm into the low 80s. Substantial instability (~1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear will lead to some loosely organized multicell thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts along and ahead of the front later this afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...TX/southern OK/extreme southeastern NM... Not much change for this outlook update other than a minor southward shift of severe probabilities across far southeast NM and West TX to account for the projected cold front position by mid afternoon. Still expecting widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to form this afternoon along and behind the cold front over west TX and southeastern NM, as well as ahead of the cold front, near the dryline and over strongly heated, relatively high elevations west of the Pecos Valley. The stronger updrafts will attain supercell characteristics and pose a large-hail threat on both sides of the front, with severe-wind and tornado potential more prevalent to its south. Forecast soundings south of the front indicate veering and increasing flow with height which will become very favorable for supercells. It still appears one or two dominant, prefrontal, mid/late-afternoon supercells may evolve and remain south of the front. The potential for a strong tornado in addition to giant hail will be the primary hazards with these warm sector supercells. Additional storm development is expected by early evening with an amassing of cold pools eventually expected, as southeasterly 850mb flow strengthens. A severe MCS will likely evolve during the evening and probably persist into the overnight as it moves east across portions of the Edwards Plateau and central TX. Have expanded wind probabilities farther east to account for a lingering threat for severe gusts and perhaps a localized risk for a tornado late as this activity moves east of I-35. ...North/northeast TX to mid Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes vicinity... A diurnal intensification of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected this afternoon within this general corridor from the Red River Valley northeastward into the IL/WI vicinity. With much of this region located in between larger-scale mid-level waves, modest kinematic fields will tend to limit overall storm organization and severe potential. Nonetheless, heating of a moist boundary layer will facilitate the development of moderate instability by early to mid afternoon. Mainly semi-organized bands of multicells and clusters thereof will occasionally result in sporadic potential for wind damage and large hail. It appears perhaps a corridor for greater wind damage potential may occur immediately ahead/downstream of an MCV moving east across the mid MS Valley. Model guidance indicates slightly greater organized line segments and wind potential later this afternoon from central into northern portions of IL. Have also expanded the MRGL northward into portions of WI where sufficient destabilization will occur ahead of a front and associated mid-level disturbance over the Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...20Z Update... ...Far West Texas into TX Hill Country/Central TX... Outflow-augmented cold front continues to surge southward across the Permian Basin. Development along the front has been relatively short-lived thus far, primarily due to the undercutting of the updrafts. Even so, buoyancy is building north of the front, so more storm maturation and increasing severe potential appears possible north of the front. A more thermodynamically favorable environment exists south of the surging cold front, where there is a greater potential for surface-based storms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. This initially more discrete activity will likely increase in coverage later this evening as the shortwave trough currently moving through northern Mexico reaches Far West Texas. Some potential for upscale growth exists as forcing increasing, with the resulting MCS then pushing eastward through the Hill Country. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards with this convective line. However, ample low-level moisture and veering low-level flow could support a few line-embedded QLCS tornadoes. ...Western Illinois... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #630, the airmass ahead of the southeastward-progressing cold front will continue to destabilize as dewpoints climb into the mid-60s and temperatures warm into the low 80s. Substantial instability (~1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear will lead to some loosely organized multicell thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts along and ahead of the front later this afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/ ...TX/southern OK/extreme southeastern NM... Not much change for this outlook update other than a minor southward shift of severe probabilities across far southeast NM and West TX to account for the projected cold front position by mid afternoon. Still expecting widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to form this afternoon along and behind the cold front over west TX and southeastern NM, as well as ahead of the cold front, near the dryline and over strongly heated, relatively high elevations west of the Pecos Valley. The stronger updrafts will attain supercell characteristics and pose a large-hail threat on both sides of the front, with severe-wind and tornado potential more prevalent to its south. Forecast soundings south of the front indicate veering and increasing flow with height which will become very favorable for supercells. It still appears one or two dominant, prefrontal, mid/late-afternoon supercells may evolve and remain south of the front. The potential for a strong tornado in addition to giant hail will be the primary hazards with these warm sector supercells. Additional storm development is expected by early evening with an amassing of cold pools eventually expected, as southeasterly 850mb flow strengthens. A severe MCS will likely evolve during the evening and probably persist into the overnight as it moves east across portions of the Edwards Plateau and central TX. Have expanded wind probabilities farther east to account for a lingering threat for severe gusts and perhaps a localized risk for a tornado late as this activity moves east of I-35. ...North/northeast TX to mid Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes vicinity... A diurnal intensification of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected this afternoon within this general corridor from the Red River Valley northeastward into the IL/WI vicinity. With much of this region located in between larger-scale mid-level waves, modest kinematic fields will tend to limit overall storm organization and severe potential. Nonetheless, heating of a moist boundary layer will facilitate the development of moderate instability by early to mid afternoon. Mainly semi-organized bands of multicells and clusters thereof will occasionally result in sporadic potential for wind damage and large hail. It appears perhaps a corridor for greater wind damage potential may occur immediately ahead/downstream of an MCV moving east across the mid MS Valley. Model guidance indicates slightly greater organized line segments and wind potential later this afternoon from central into northern portions of IL. Have also expanded the MRGL northward into portions of WI where sufficient destabilization will occur ahead of a front and associated mid-level disturbance over the Upper Midwest. Read more