Severe Storms

MD 0635 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE ARKLATEX REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...the ArkLaTex region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050003Z - 050100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind gusts and small hail are possible through the evening hours in the ArkLaTex region. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have been observed during the last few hours across portions of the ArkLaTex region. Small hail and gusty winds have occurred with multiple cores in southeastern AR, as well as a rogue one in southeastern OK. This convection is associated with a modest mid-level speed max moving through the region -- as evidenced in short-term forecast guidance -- in conjunction with diurnal heating. Regional reconnaissance indicates that these storms are moving through an environment supportive of continued multi-cell/supercell structures, characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-1500+ J/kg and 0-6-km shear up to around 30 kts. The more mature cells appear to be moving generally to the ESE at around 20 kts, yielding some low-level storm-relative helicity in a generally straight shear profile. Rich boundary-layer moisture in conjunction with adequate cloud-layer shear should support a continued threat of small hail and gusty winds with the stronger updrafts. However, as the mid-level speed max propagates to the northeast, updrafts will likely find the lack of bulk shear disturbing, and convection and associated hazards are expected to gradually wane in the next few hours. ..Flournoy/Guyer.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 33099390 33559496 34129511 34559474 34859385 34879274 34449132 33829044 32879040 32689161 32889285 33099390 Read more

WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 184 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634 ..FLOURNOY..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-389-413-435-443-451-461- 465-475-050140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CONCHO CRANE CROCKETT IRION MCCULLOCH MENARD PECOS REAGAN REEVES SCHLEICHER SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..FLOURNOY..05/05/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-050140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-033-049-059-081-083-115-135-151-165-169-173-207-227-253- 263-301-305-317-329-335-353-399-415-417-431-433-441-445-447-495- 501-050140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD JONES KENT LOVING LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON WINKLER YOAKUM Read more

MD 0633 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern GA and the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042214Z - 050015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds are possible for the next couple of hours across portions of southern GA and the FL Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms have formed across southern GA and are moving slowly southward toward the FL Panhandle. Their persistence is likely influenced by a weak upper-level disturbance moving through the region and diurnally driven boundary-layer heating. The clusters of storms have been associated with some small hail and localized gusty winds. As diurnal heating wanes and the upper-level disturbance continues to propagate eastward toward the coast, the intensity of this convection is expected to gradually wane. However, gusty winds and small hail are possible for the next couple of hours as the storms continue to produce cooler outflow. The overall threat should remain marginal and local in nature, and watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Flournoy/Guyer.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30658580 31088548 31308467 31258354 31088273 30378247 29808295 29678354 29718474 30148557 30658580 Read more

WW 0185 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0185 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0634 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 184... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...parts of western and central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 184... Valid 042331Z - 050130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 184 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated supercells, posing all-hazards severe risk, are ongoing in/near Tornado Watch 184. Later, upscale growth/expansion of storms is expected, which is likely to eventually require new/downstream WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest KMAF radar loop shows a persistent supercell moving southeastward across Pecos county, which has produced previous tornadoes and currently appears likely to be producing very large hail. A second supercell which has developed more recently is moving along the Midland/Upton County border, and also poses an all-hazards risk in the short term. Meanwhile, convection is increasing in coverage farther east, including a longer-lived storm now over northern portions of Coleman and Brown counties. With time, CAMs suggest upscale growth emerging from within the broader area of storms, and shifting eastward as an at least semi-organized MCS. This seems plausible, given a fairly well-defined vort max aloft moving across southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas, and an associated increase in a southeasterly low-level jet expected to occur this evening. Resulting QG ascent, combined with the favorably moist/unstable environment downstream, should act to sustain convection and associated expansion of severe risk east of the existing WW. A new WW will likely need to be considered -- perhaps earlier than optimal due to the proximity of the convective increase in the Coleman/Brown county area and vicinity to the eastern edges of WW 183 and 184. ..Goss.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30230290 30750344 31760221 32129930 32159803 31209732 29859737 29519841 29310085 30230290 Read more

MD 0633 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern GA and the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042214Z - 050015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds are possible for the next couple of hours across portions of southern GA and the FL Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms have formed across southern GA and are moving slowly southward toward the FL Panhandle. Their persistence is likely influenced by a weak upper-level disturbance moving through the region and diurnally driven boundary-layer heating. The clusters of storms have been associated with some small hail and localized gusty winds. As diurnal heating wanes and the upper-level disturbance continues to propagate eastward toward the coast, the intensity of this convection is expected to gradually wane. However, gusty winds and small hail are possible for the next couple of hours as the storms continue to produce cooler outflow. The overall threat should remain marginal and local in nature, and watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Flournoy/Guyer.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30658580 31088548 31308467 31258354 31088273 30378247 29808295 29678354 29718474 30148557 30658580 Read more

WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 184 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..FLOURNOY..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-389-413-435-443-451-461- 465-475-050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CONCHO CRANE CROCKETT IRION MCCULLOCH MENARD PECOS REAGAN REEVES SCHLEICHER SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 184 TORNADO TX 041930Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify rapidly this afternoon. Large to giant hail will accompany the more intense supercells. As the stronger supercells move east into richer low-level moisture in the Pecos Valley, a greater risk for a few tornadoes is forecast. The risk for a strong tornado may maximize during the late afternoon to early evening timeframe. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Fort Stockton TX to 15 miles north of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 183... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..FLOURNOY..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-050040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-033-049-059-081-083-115-135-151-165-169-173-207-227-253- 263-301-305-317-329-335-353-399-415-417-431-433-441-445-447-495- 501-050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD JONES KENT LOVING LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON WINKLER YOAKUM Read more

WW 183 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 041830Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West into Northwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon across portions of the Permian Basin east into the Texas Big Country. Elevated supercells will likely pose a large to very large hail risk. In closer proximity to the surface boundary, a risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may develop later today into the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Hobbs NM to 40 miles east of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Smith Read more

MD 0631 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 183...184... FOR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0631 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...Southwest Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...184... Valid 042047Z - 042245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183, 184 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of severe thunderstorm watch 183 and tornado watch 184 over west/southwest Texas. The greatest severe weather potential will likely be focused along and north of the I-10 corridor for the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...20 UTC surface observations and visible/radar imagery continue to show a cold front migrating south across western TX into a moderately to strongly buoyant air mass. Towering cumulus denoting substantial lift is noted along the boundary, which will maintain the potential for additional thunderstorm development heading into the late afternoon hours. Just behind/along the front, a well-organized supercell over Winkler County, TX appears to be displaced slightly to the cool side of the boundary. Although this cell may be slightly undercut by the front, temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s may still support sufficient surface-based buoyancy based on RAP forecast soundings. Northeasterly surface winds will help elongate low-level hodographs, promoting favorable helicity for storm organization and large/very large hail production and some tornado threat as the cell tracks east. Ahead of the front, discrete supercells that initiated off of the Davis Mountains continue to mature and become better organized as they migrate deeper into the warm sector. Daytime heating combined with elongating deep-layer hodographs ahead of an approaching upper disturbance will promote an increasingly favorable environment for severe convection. Consequently, further intensification of these cells is anticipated in the coming hours with the potential for very large hail (2-4 inches in diameter) and tornadoes. The expectation for the next couple of hours is that the greatest severe threat will be associated with (and downstream of) both the post-frontal Winkler county supercell and the open warm sector convection. Further to the northeast closer to the I-20 corridor (Big Country), clustered convection developing along the front will pose a severe hail risk, but the potential for destructive storm interactions may modulate the overall severe threat. ..Moore.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30390357 30950391 31470394 32050371 32270342 32530249 32699954 32589892 32139876 31599886 30939921 30479986 30300061 29880146 29870211 29990268 30110316 30390357 Read more

MD 0632 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN-EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0632 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma...northern Arkansas...and southern-east-central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042053Z - 042230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from eastern Oklahoma across northern Arkansas and into Misosuri. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of a cold front from eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and into Missouri. The airmass ahead of this cold front is moderately unstable with MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Effective shear is relatively weak (<30 knots per SPC mesoanalysis), but VWPs closer to the cold front (INX and SGF) are sampling greater 0-6 km shear between 25 and 30 knots. This, in addition to low-level convergence, will support more robust updrafts near the cold front. A few strong to isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon. However, height rises and broad synoptic scale subsidence should preclude a more organized severe weather threat and the need for a watch. ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34759676 36299458 37879291 38589225 38999092 38509013 35279027 34599085 34189229 34139574 34229611 34759676 Read more

WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 184 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631 ..FLOURNOY..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-389-413-435-443-451-461- 465-475-042240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CONCHO CRANE CROCKETT IRION MCCULLOCH MENARD PECOS REAGAN REEVES SCHLEICHER SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 184 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631 ..FLOURNOY..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-389-413-435-443-451-461- 465-475-042240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CONCHO CRANE CROCKETT IRION MCCULLOCH MENARD PECOS REAGAN REEVES SCHLEICHER SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631 ..FLOURNOY..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-042240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-033-049-059-081-083-115-135-151-165-169-173-207-227-253- 263-301-305-317-329-335-353-399-415-417-431-433-441-445-447-495- 501-042240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD JONES KENT LOVING LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL Read more

WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631 ..FLOURNOY..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 183 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-042240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-033-049-059-081-083-115-135-151-165-169-173-207-227-253- 263-301-305-317-329-335-353-399-415-417-431-433-441-445-447-495- 501-042240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD JONES KENT LOVING LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL Read more

WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 184 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631 ..MOORE..05/04/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-389-413-435-443-451-461- 465-475-042140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CONCHO CRANE CROCKETT IRION MCCULLOCH MENARD PECOS REAGAN REEVES SCHLEICHER SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 4 20:40:06 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An active fire weather pattern remains on track through at least midweek across the southern Rockies extending eastward into the southern High Plains. ... Monday/Day 3 to Wednesday Day 5: New Mexico into adjacent parts of Texas and Colorado ... A strong, negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains during the day on Monday. In its wake, strong mid-level flow will exist across New Mexico into the central Plains. The orientation of this flow will result in strong downslope flow across the region. The result will be surface winds approaching 30 mph in the presence of relative humidity beneath 15 percent. Extremely critical meteorological conditions will be possible across northeast New Mexico; fuel receptiveness will be the limiting factor for fire potential. By Tuesday into Wednesday, strong westerly mid-level flow will persist atop a dry boundary layer. This will continue the downslope flow, with winds around 20 mph. Relative Humidity will continue to fall into the single digits and teens resulting in continued fire weather concerns. Toward the latter half of the week, the mid-level flow will relax a bit. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions being met is less than in previous days. Trends will need to monitored as mesoscale details come more into focus. ..Marsh.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more