Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0680 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...EASTERN IN...WESTERN OH...FAR NORTHERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...southern Lower MI...eastern IN...western OH...far northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 072033Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...As supercells spread quickly east-northeast from southern Lower MI and northwest IN, an additional tornado watch/watches will be needed prior to 22Z. This may also include a combined/separate watch farther south in eastern IN/western OH ahead of supercells intensifying over the Wabash Valley. DISCUSSION...As mentioned in MCD 0679, an increasingly favorable setup for supercells, a couple of which may be long-tracked, is underway across northwest IN to the Wabash Valley. The northern storms may being to outpace the rapid boundary-layer warming/moistening that is occurring across northeast IN and northwest OH into southern Lower MI. Nevertheless, the intense mid-level jet will likely foster sustained supercells even as they become slightly elevated towards southeast Lower MI. With backed low-level flow and ample low-level shear (per IWX VWP data), the tornado threat will remain prominent with any supercells along and south of the surface warm front. A couple strong tornadoes are possible. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 42758544 42698458 41898367 41398340 40538329 38478394 38308491 38688589 41048526 42758544 Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW SLO TO 15 S CMI TO 15 NNW DNV TO 40 SW VPZ TO 25 NW VPZ TO 35 SSE RAC TO 25 ENE MKE. ..BENTLEY..05/07/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...IND...IWX...GRR...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-023-025-029-033-035-041-045-049-079-101-139-159-173-183- 072240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE MOULTRIE RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION INC005-007-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-039-045-049-053-055-057- 059-063-067-069-071-073-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099- 101-103-105-107-109-111-113-119-121-127-131-133-141-145-149-153- 157-159-165-167-169-171-181-183-072240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BENTON BOONE BROWN CARROLL CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/07/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-033-075-151-179-072240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD DE KALB JAY STEUBEN WELLS MIC015-023-025-037-045-059-065-067-075-091-115-072240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BRANCH CALHOUN CLINTON EATON HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA JACKSON LENAWEE MONROE OHC003-033-039-051-063-069-095-123-125-137-143-147-161-171-173- 175-072240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/07/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-033-075-151-179-072240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD DE KALB JAY STEUBEN WELLS MIC015-023-025-037-045-059-065-067-075-091-115-072240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BRANCH CALHOUN CLINTON EATON HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA JACKSON LENAWEE MONROE OHC003-033-039-051-063-069-095-123-125-137-143-147-161-171-173- 175-072240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0678 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0678 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071905Z - 072130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop by late afternoon, with a conditional threat of very large hail. A small Slight Risk is also being added to the 20Z convective outlook. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front from Dallas southwestward toward Del Rio, with generally weak wind convergence. Ample low-level moisture exists south and east of the boundary, with 70s F dewpoints and MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Convective inhibition continues to decrease due to heating, as temperature rise into the upper 80s to near 90 F. Visible imagery shows increasing CU fields west of the I-35 corridor from Austin to San Antonio, particularly along the west edge of a thicker but eroding cloud deck. Over the next few hours, isolated severe storms may form over this small region. Relatively long and straight hodographs along with the deepening moist boundary layer and very strong instability will conditionally support very large hail. Splitting cells may occur as well, with left movers also producing hail. ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30309952 30809874 31109823 31239787 31289741 30949691 30409700 29559766 29179831 29059965 29230010 29570021 29889996 30309952 Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0196 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0679 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 195... FOR EASTERN IL...IN...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 0679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...eastern IL...IN...and southwest Lower MI Concerning...Tornado Watch 195... Valid 071953Z - 072100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 195 continues. SUMMARY...Additional supercells are expected to develop and intensify from the Lake Michigan vicinity southward towards the Wabash Valley. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, with the tornado threat increasing as supercells mature into Indiana. DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells have been sustained along the IL/WI border and earlier across the south part of Chicagoland, both of which should weaken as they progress across southern Lake Michigan. Several additional updrafts are gradually maturing farther south over eastern into southern IL and northwest IN. Richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger low-level shear across the Wabash Valley portion of the region, all render increasing concern for one or two of these storms to become long-track supercells. Within an environment characterized by STP around 3-4, potential will exist for a strong tornado. A limiting factor though with southern extent is the degree of mid-level warmth/dryness south of the intense jet that is ejecting farther north across northern IL into southern Lower MI. This also renders uncertainty with how far south sustained supercell development will occur in the near-term over the Lower OH Valley. ..Grams.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 42318646 42628604 42458555 42098515 41288504 40068631 38648677 38168743 38428884 38798902 39958849 40768846 41468802 42318646 Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SPI TO 10 SW DEC TO 20 NW CMI TO 35 NE BMI TO 10 ENE MMO TO 30 SE RFD TO 5 S JVL TO 20 WNW JVL. ..BENTLEY..05/07/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...IND...IWX...GRR...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-049-053- 063-075-079-089-091-093-097-101-105-111-113-115-139-147-159-173- 183-197-072140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES COOK CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE KALB DE WITT DOUGLAS DUPAGE EDGAR EFFINGHAM FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS JASPER KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY MCLEAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION WILL INC005-007-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-039-045-049-053-055-057- 059-063-067-069-071-073-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099- 101-103-105-107-109-111-113-119-121-127-131-133-141-145-149-153- 157-159-165-167-169-171-181-183-072140- Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough will broaden and elongate across much of the CONUS on Wednesday. Mid-level winds, though weakening some, will still remain across the southern Rockies. The surface low will migrate southward into parts of Central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. With time, some colder air will push southward into New Mexico. ...Southwest and Trans-Pecos... Surface winds of 15-25 mph are expected again across the region. Coverage of these winds will likely be less given the weaker synoptic features. The area with the highest confidence for stronger winds of sufficient duration will be across southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Stronger winds also appear possible in northeast New Mexico, but the duration of these winds is not certain. RH will fall to 10-15% for most of the region. Elevated to critical fire weather will occur for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough will broaden and elongate across much of the CONUS on Wednesday. Mid-level winds, though weakening some, will still remain across the southern Rockies. The surface low will migrate southward into parts of Central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. With time, some colder air will push southward into New Mexico. ...Southwest and Trans-Pecos... Surface winds of 15-25 mph are expected again across the region. Coverage of these winds will likely be less given the weaker synoptic features. The area with the highest confidence for stronger winds of sufficient duration will be across southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Stronger winds also appear possible in northeast New Mexico, but the duration of these winds is not certain. RH will fall to 10-15% for most of the region. Elevated to critical fire weather will occur for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough will broaden and elongate across much of the CONUS on Wednesday. Mid-level winds, though weakening some, will still remain across the southern Rockies. The surface low will migrate southward into parts of Central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. With time, some colder air will push southward into New Mexico. ...Southwest and Trans-Pecos... Surface winds of 15-25 mph are expected again across the region. Coverage of these winds will likely be less given the weaker synoptic features. The area with the highest confidence for stronger winds of sufficient duration will be across southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Stronger winds also appear possible in northeast New Mexico, but the duration of these winds is not certain. RH will fall to 10-15% for most of the region. Elevated to critical fire weather will occur for a few hours during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more