Severe Storms

MD 0684 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0684 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072336Z - 080030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat appears to be increasing across the southern Ohio Valley this evening. New watch appears warranted and may be issued by soon. DISCUSSION...Persistent corridor of low-level confluence extends along the confluence of the MS/OH River into southern IN. Agitated cu field is gradually deepening across southern IL/IN into western KY where MLCAPE values are in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the strong, deep-layer shear across this region, robust updrafts may evolve over the next few hours. Supercell risk is increasing and a new ww appears warranted. ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38118851 38848542 38318387 37448453 36668753 37068870 38118851 Read more

MD 0683 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 196... FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...NORTHEAST IN...NORTHWEST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...Southern Lower MI...Northeast IN...Northwest OH Concerning...Tornado Watch 196... Valid 072246Z - 080015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 196 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells will spread northeast this evening. Tornado threat continues, along with large hail. DISCUSSION...Exit region of mid-level speed max is spreading across the central Great Lakes region early this evening. Approaching short wave/speed max is contributing to a slow northward advance of surface warm front that currently drapes across northern OH into southern MI. No less than half a dozen long-lived supercells are currently noted near this warm front, several of which are, or have been tornadic. Additionally, very large hail has been noted at times. This activity will continue spreading northeast over the next few hours. Greatest tornado threat will be near and just south of this warm front as buoyancy drops considerably north of the wind shift. A bit south of the warm front, discrete supercells are gradually increasing in intensity across eastern IN. Longer-lived updrafts will spread into the OH portion of ww196 in the next 1-2 hours. ..Darrow.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 40608515 43108537 43118340 40618326 40608515 Read more

MD 0684 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0684 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072336Z - 080030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat appears to be increasing across the southern Ohio Valley this evening. New watch appears warranted and may be issued by soon. DISCUSSION...Persistent corridor of low-level confluence extends along the confluence of the MS/OH River into southern IN. Agitated cu field is gradually deepening across southern IL/IN into western KY where MLCAPE values are in excess of 3000 J/kg. Given the strong, deep-layer shear across this region, robust updrafts may evolve over the next few hours. Supercell risk is increasing and a new ww appears warranted. ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38118851 38848542 38318387 37448453 36668753 37068870 38118851 Read more

MD 0683 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 196... FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...NORTHEAST IN...NORTHWEST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...Southern Lower MI...Northeast IN...Northwest OH Concerning...Tornado Watch 196... Valid 072246Z - 080015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 196 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells will spread northeast this evening. Tornado threat continues, along with large hail. DISCUSSION...Exit region of mid-level speed max is spreading across the central Great Lakes region early this evening. Approaching short wave/speed max is contributing to a slow northward advance of surface warm front that currently drapes across northern OH into southern MI. No less than half a dozen long-lived supercells are currently noted near this warm front, several of which are, or have been tornadic. Additionally, very large hail has been noted at times. This activity will continue spreading northeast over the next few hours. Greatest tornado threat will be near and just south of this warm front as buoyancy drops considerably north of the wind shift. A bit south of the warm front, discrete supercells are gradually increasing in intensity across eastern IN. Longer-lived updrafts will spread into the OH portion of ww196 in the next 1-2 hours. ..Darrow.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 40608515 43108537 43118340 40618326 40608515 Read more

MD 0682 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...Portions of upper Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072224Z - 080000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts are possible with storms in eastern Iowa, southwestern Wisconsin, and northwest Illinois. DISCUSSION...A very narrow warm sector has developed in the upper Mississippi Valley southeast of an occluded surface cyclone. Deep-layer shear is quite marginal, but a few semi-organized storms are possible over the next 1-3 hours. The threat should be short lived as the storms will likely move into outflow from storms along the warm front (particularly in Wisconsin). Furthermore, dewpoints have been mixing out over the last hour. Isolated marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43199188 43539166 43529071 42538984 41888980 40998989 40749042 40829095 41029125 43199188 Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/07/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-033-075-151-179-080040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD DE KALB JAY STEUBEN WELLS MIC015-023-025-037-045-059-065-067-075-091-115-080040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BRANCH CALHOUN CLINTON EATON HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA JACKSON LENAWEE MONROE OHC003-033-039-051-063-069-095-123-125-137-143-147-161-171-173- 175-080040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 196 TORNADO IN MI OH LE 072055Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Indiana Southern Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Erie * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely move into the Watch area through the late afternoon and evening. The more intense storms, including the possibility for several supercells, will pose a risk for large hail, severe gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Lansing MI to 40 miles southwest of Findlay OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/07/24 ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-031-035-041-047-065-079-115-135-137-139-155-161-177- 080040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN HENRY JENNINGS OHIO RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE KYC015-023-037-041-077-081-117-135-161-187-191-201-080040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRACKEN CAMPBELL CARROLL GALLATIN GRANT KENTON LEWIS MASON OWEN PENDLETON ROBERTSON OHC001-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-041-045-047-049-057-061- 065-071-073-089-091-097-107-109-113-129-131-135-141-145-149-159- Read more

WW 197 TORNADO IN KY OH 072200Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana Northern Kentucky Western Ohio * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 600 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered intense thunderstorms over central Indiana will track eastward through the evening, affecting the watch area. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible with this activity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Dayton OH to 45 miles south of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...WW 196... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE SLO TO 15 W HUF TO 15 ENE LAF TO 5 NE SBN TO 25 NE BEH TO MKG. ..BENTLEY..05/07/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...IND...IWX...GRR...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-025-033-079-101-159-080040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND INC005-011-013-017-021-023-027-039-049-053-055-057-059-063-067- 069-071-081-083-085-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-113- 119-121-133-141-145-153-159-167-169-183-080040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS ELKHART FULTON GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MARTIN MIAMI Read more

WW 195 TORNADO IL IN MI WI LM 071825Z - 080100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 195 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Northern Illinois Central and Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Southeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify this afternoon into the early evening. The environment will continue to destabilize through the mid to late afternoon across much of the Watch area. The stronger storms will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for large to very large hail, severe gusts, and tornadoes. A couple of the more intense supercells may yield the potential for a strong tornado. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Racine WI to 60 miles southwest of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0681 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0681 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...western/central North Carolina and western Virginia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072105Z - 072230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts are possible this evening. DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed over the mountains and are moving toward greater instability across central North Carolina this afternoon. Amid around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear (per SPC mesoanalysis), storms have been organized with some supercell structures apparent. Given the supercell storm mode and moderate to strong instability and increasing shear through the evening, there will be a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts with these storms. Height rises and synoptic scale subsidence should keep storm coverage isolated and end the threat by sunset which should preclude the need for a watch. ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 37418191 38018159 37587997 36887899 36137892 35657904 34847939 34828125 34998189 35368232 37418191 Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SLO TO 15 NNE MTO TO 10 NNE DNV TO 15 S VPZ TO 25 WSW BEH TO 40 W MKG. ..BENTLEY..05/07/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...IND...IWX...GRR...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-025-029-033-035-041-045-049-079-101-159-173-183-072340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION INC005-007-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-039-045-049-053-055-057- 059-063-067-069-071-081-083-085-087-091-093-095-097-099-101-103- 105-107-109-113-119-121-131-133-141-145-149-153-157-159-165-167- 169-171-181-183-072340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BENTON BOONE BROWN CARROLL CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS ELKHART FOUNTAIN FULTON GRANT GREENE HAMILTON Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0197 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more