Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are modest. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central High Plains and southern/central FL. However, confidence in temporal and spatial coverage is low. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude mid-level troughs will slowly traverse the southern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting modest low-level moisture return for portions of the southern Plains and points east. Similar to today, modestly dry conditions will persist along the High Plains, but with relatively weak surface winds, which will limit significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0766 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0766 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235... Valid 131645Z - 131815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail will continue with ongoing supercells. Severe/damaging winds should become an increasing concern this afternoon as convection attempts to grow upscale into a bowing cluster. DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing to the south of the San Antonio TX metro as of 1635Z. With extreme instability present (4000+ J/kg MUCAPE), along with strong deep-layer shear of 45-50 kt, a supercell mode will likely be maintained in the short term. Steep mid-level lapse rates noted on area 12Z soundings from DRT/CRP/BRO will aid robust updraft accelerations and a threat for large to very large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. To the north of this supercell into central TX, destructive updraft interference/interactions have occurred, with a messier storm mode observed and a lesser threat for large hail. With time, expectations are for convection to gradually grow upscale into a small bowing cluster as activity continues eastward through the afternoon. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph should exist once this mode transition occurs. ..Gleason.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29369992 29849930 29949802 29829692 29259685 28799707 28559734 28679902 28679989 28990016 29369992 Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0237 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PNS TO 25 W PFN TO 30 N PFN TO 5 ESE MAI TO 25 ENE MAI. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-063-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-133- 131840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WASHINGTON GMZ730-750-752-755-765-131840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE TO MEXICO BEACH OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PNS TO 25 W PFN TO 30 N PFN TO 5 ESE MAI TO 25 ENE MAI. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-063-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-133- 131840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WASHINGTON GMZ730-750-752-755-765-131840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE TO MEXICO BEACH OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S DRT TO 50 SE DRT TO 30 W HDO TO 20 NNE HDO TO 45 NNW SAT TO 60 E JCT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766 ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-021-025-029-031-055-091-123-127-149-163-175-177-187-209- 255-259-283-285-287-297-311-323-325-453-463-469-479-493-507- 131840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BASTROP BEE BEXAR BLANCO CALDWELL COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES KENDALL LA SALLE LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA TRAVIS UVALDE VICTORIA WEBB WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S DRT TO 50 SE DRT TO 30 W HDO TO 20 NNE HDO TO 45 NNW SAT TO 60 E JCT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766 ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-021-025-029-031-055-091-123-127-149-163-175-177-187-209- 255-259-283-285-287-297-311-323-325-453-463-469-479-493-507- 131840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BASTROP BEE BEXAR BLANCO CALDWELL COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT FAYETTE FRIO GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES KENDALL LA SALLE LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA TRAVIS UVALDE VICTORIA WEBB WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will be located over the mid to lower MS Valley Tuesday morning, and will proceed toward the TN Valley by 00Z. Substantial westerly mid and high level winds will exist across the Gulf Coast states, aiding shear. Meanwhile, a mean warm front will likely extend from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across parts of northern FL and into southern GA early on Tuesday, with a northward progression expected into GA and SC during the day. The primary surface low will develop across the OH Valley, with a cold front into the MS Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southeastern States... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the position of early-day storms, possibly from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. However, the environment ahead of the expected morning MCS will be quite supportive of severe storms, including damaging wind and conditional tornado risk. A swath of damaging winds appears likely with the early MCS given strong mean wind speeds and expected eastward motion along the instability gradient. Depending on how far outflow from the early storms moves south, additional afternoon storms could develop along such a boundary. This activity would likely be more isolated as large-scale ascent shift northeast. To the north, additional daytime storms are likely beneath the upper trough where cooler temperatures aloft will exist, from parts of KY across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA. Marginal hail will be possible with these cells as MUCAPE rises to perhaps 1000 J/kg. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 Read more