Severe Storms

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AAF TO 10 W AAF TO 30 NNE AAF TO 10 SSE TLH TO 40 SSE VLD. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-037-067-123-129-132140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE FRANKLIN LAFAYETTE TAYLOR WAKULLA GMZ730-752-755-765-132140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AAF TO 10 W AAF TO 30 NNE AAF TO 10 SSE TLH TO 40 SSE VLD. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-037-067-123-129-132140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE FRANKLIN LAFAYETTE TAYLOR WAKULLA GMZ730-752-755-765-132140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AAF TO 10 W AAF TO 30 NNE AAF TO 10 SSE TLH TO 40 SSE VLD. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-037-067-123-129-132140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE FRANKLIN LAFAYETTE TAYLOR WAKULLA GMZ730-752-755-765-132140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AAF TO 10 W AAF TO 30 NNE AAF TO 10 SSE TLH TO 40 SSE VLD. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-037-067-123-129-132140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE FRANKLIN LAFAYETTE TAYLOR WAKULLA GMZ730-752-755-765-132140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AAF TO 10 W AAF TO 30 NNE AAF TO 10 SSE TLH TO 40 SSE VLD. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-037-067-123-129-132140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE FRANKLIN LAFAYETTE TAYLOR WAKULLA GMZ730-752-755-765-132140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AAF TO 10 W AAF TO 30 NNE AAF TO 10 SSE TLH TO 40 SSE VLD. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-037-067-123-129-132140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE FRANKLIN LAFAYETTE TAYLOR WAKULLA GMZ730-752-755-765-132140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 236 TORNADO FL CW 131550Z - 132300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 236 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of The Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1150 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster will continue eastward this afternoon across parts of the FL Panhandle, while posing a threat for a few tornadoes and scattered severe/damaging winds of 60-75 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Panama City FL to 70 miles east southeast of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 234...WW 235... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from south central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. No major changes to the existing outlook at 20Z. Scattered severe storms are currently threatening parts of the FL Panhandle, and over much of south-central into southeastern TX. A general west-east corridor of severe potential will remain from TX eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through tomorrow morning, with episodes of severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. Existing outflows have stabilized parts of the region, but some air mass recovery is possible overnight ahead of progressive storm clusters or MCSs. For more information see mesoscale discussion 768. ..Jewell.. 05/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ ...Northeast Gulf coast today... An MCS with embedded bowing segments is ongoing across the western FL Panhandle, with a history of measured severe gusts in the 54-71 kt range this morning. This convective system will likely persist while moving east-southeastward through the afternoon, along and immediately north of a surface warm front near the coast. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though embedded circulations could produce a couple of tornadoes. ...South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor very large hail near 3 inches in diameter as the primary threat through early afternoon. Some upscale growth in this convection is likely through the afternoon, as the storms spread generally eastward along a stalled front across Houston and Lake Charles, with a continued large hail threat and an increase in the potential for damaging winds of 60-80 mph. The storms could persist into the overnight hours while moving across southern LA, along the outflow-reinforced boundary in the wake of the ongoing storms over the FL Panhandle. Areas northeast of this outflow boundary have been largely overturned into MS/AL, with limited potential for destabilization prior to arrival of the storms from the west. ...Northeast TX/northern LA to AR/MO through early tonight... The primary midlevel trough will move eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR through this evening. Lingering moisture/lapse rates to the north of the Gulf coast convection will be sufficient for at least a low-end hail/wind threat with convection this afternoon/evening along/east of a weak cold front and in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. The eastward extent of any severe threat tonight will depend on recovery to the north of ongoing/expected convection near the Gulf coast, which is low confidence. Read more