Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0804 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTH EASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0804 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...northern Arkansas...south eastern Missouri...southern Illinois...far western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162025Z - 162230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal wind and hail risk through the evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in coverage this afternoon and evening across portions of the Ozarks to the middle Mississippi Valley. A few more organized clusters and a supercell or two may be possible as forcing increases from a mid-level speed max moves across this region later in the evening amid MLCAPE increasing to around 1000-1500 J/kg. A few instances of severe hail and damaging wind will be possible. A watch is unlikely to be needed, as this threat will remain isolated. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 36659306 37139222 37939057 38098894 37728808 36998802 36698829 36228917 35639031 35439115 35309232 35389291 35669359 36319334 36659306 Read more

MD 0803 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0803 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161858Z - 162100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Threat of large hail and damaging wind to continue through the afternoon/evening. A watch will be possible in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm and supercell activity has increased across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Reports of hail up to 1.75" have been noted with storms near Synder, TX. Visible satellite shows continued development of cumulus across this region, with additional thunderstorm development expected through the afternoon. The environment in this region is characterized by MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg and 40-45 kts of deep layer shear. Forecast soundings across this region depict steep lapse rates throughout the profile. The VAD profile from MAF shows a largely linear and elongated hodograph. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to 80s with dew points in the upper 50s. Given these parameters, further development through the afternoon/evening will likely be capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A watch may be needed to encompass this threat this afternoon. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 30660153 30620118 31510067 32020038 32740005 33060007 33250081 33340115 33530194 33760374 33850507 33530522 33320530 32750537 31950494 31190277 31150267 30660153 Read more

MD 0802 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0802 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161812Z - 162045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop after 19Z from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. Large hail as well as damaging gusts will be likely, and a brief tornado will be possible as well. DISCUSSION...A line of storms stretching from central into northeast TX continues to shift east/southeast, with prominent outflow. Although the air mass ahead of this line continues to gradually destabilize due to heating, a surge of rich boundary layer moisture is moving in from the southwest, and this will provide a greater contribution. GPS PWAT values will increase rapidly by over 0.50" as the mid to upper 70s F dewpoints arrive. Indicative of this robust moisture are cells forming within the warm advection zone just off the LA Coast. Therefore, as the primary line of storms moves in from the northwest, strengthening may occur especially where the line intersects the warm front, with additional cells forming along the length of the warm front. Damaging hail and wind will be likely. Low-level shear along the warm front may support a brief tornado or two as well, with 0-1 SRH values above 100 m2/s2. ..Jewell/Jewell.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 29719336 29609406 29229485 29779632 30349664 30739639 31319562 31499525 31389406 31189334 30549240 29749104 29339081 29089100 29359182 29519244 29719336 Read more

WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0250 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0250 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0250 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. Read more