Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the central into eastern Gulf Coast States and portions of the northern Plains this afternoon through tonight. A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and hail all appear possible over the central/eastern Gulf Coast area. ...20Z Update... Greater (5%) tornado probabilities have been realigned/focused along an outflow boundary extending from parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. Recent surface observations and visible satellite imagery show heating is occurring on both sides of this boundary. But, it has moved little over the past couple of hours. Current expectations are for the overall severe threat to increase through the rest of the afternoon along/near this boundary, where low-level shear is maximized per recent VWPs from KEOX. A few tornadoes may occur with any supercell or small bowing cluster that spreads eastward through this evening, along with damaging winds and large hail. See Mesoscale Discussion 815 for more details on the short-term severe threat for this area. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the northern Plains. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 814 and recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 for more details. ..Gleason.. 05/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Morning satellite imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over western MT. This feature will track into the northern High Plains by mid-afternoon, where strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will be present. Low-level moisture will be limited with dewpoints only in the mid 40s. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern MT - spreading eastward across the Dakotas during the evening. High-based and fast-moving clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern. These storms may move into northwest MN before weakening. ...Gulf Coast and Southeast States... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from southern MS into southern AL/GA. Decreasing cloud cover to the south of the convection will aid in destabilization, with a general intensification of thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Strong deep-layer westerly winds aloft and sufficient CAPE will promote occasional storm intensification with locally damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Activity may spread as far east as southeast GA this evening. ...South TX into Southern LA... Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced southern-stream upper trough over west TX/northern Mexico. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max are expected to aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of northern Mexico, tracking into south TX. Widespread morning storms over south TX have greatly stabilized the air mass in this region, lending uncertainty to how numerous/intense these afternoon storms may become. Therefore will maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate later today. Whatever activity evolves across TX will track across the northwest Gulf and move into southern LA late tonight, with the potential for damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the central into eastern Gulf Coast States and portions of the northern Plains this afternoon through tonight. A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and hail all appear possible over the central/eastern Gulf Coast area. ...20Z Update... Greater (5%) tornado probabilities have been realigned/focused along an outflow boundary extending from parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. Recent surface observations and visible satellite imagery show heating is occurring on both sides of this boundary. But, it has moved little over the past couple of hours. Current expectations are for the overall severe threat to increase through the rest of the afternoon along/near this boundary, where low-level shear is maximized per recent VWPs from KEOX. A few tornadoes may occur with any supercell or small bowing cluster that spreads eastward through this evening, along with damaging winds and large hail. See Mesoscale Discussion 815 for more details on the short-term severe threat for this area. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the northern Plains. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 814 and recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 for more details. ..Gleason.. 05/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Morning satellite imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over western MT. This feature will track into the northern High Plains by mid-afternoon, where strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will be present. Low-level moisture will be limited with dewpoints only in the mid 40s. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern MT - spreading eastward across the Dakotas during the evening. High-based and fast-moving clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern. These storms may move into northwest MN before weakening. ...Gulf Coast and Southeast States... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from southern MS into southern AL/GA. Decreasing cloud cover to the south of the convection will aid in destabilization, with a general intensification of thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Strong deep-layer westerly winds aloft and sufficient CAPE will promote occasional storm intensification with locally damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Activity may spread as far east as southeast GA this evening. ...South TX into Southern LA... Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced southern-stream upper trough over west TX/northern Mexico. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max are expected to aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of northern Mexico, tracking into south TX. Widespread morning storms over south TX have greatly stabilized the air mass in this region, lending uncertainty to how numerous/intense these afternoon storms may become. Therefore will maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate later today. Whatever activity evolves across TX will track across the northwest Gulf and move into southern LA late tonight, with the potential for damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the central into eastern Gulf Coast States and portions of the northern Plains this afternoon through tonight. A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and hail all appear possible over the central/eastern Gulf Coast area. ...20Z Update... Greater (5%) tornado probabilities have been realigned/focused along an outflow boundary extending from parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA. Recent surface observations and visible satellite imagery show heating is occurring on both sides of this boundary. But, it has moved little over the past couple of hours. Current expectations are for the overall severe threat to increase through the rest of the afternoon along/near this boundary, where low-level shear is maximized per recent VWPs from KEOX. A few tornadoes may occur with any supercell or small bowing cluster that spreads eastward through this evening, along with damaging winds and large hail. See Mesoscale Discussion 815 for more details on the short-term severe threat for this area. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the northern Plains. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 814 and recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 for more details. ..Gleason.. 05/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Morning satellite imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over western MT. This feature will track into the northern High Plains by mid-afternoon, where strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will be present. Low-level moisture will be limited with dewpoints only in the mid 40s. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern MT - spreading eastward across the Dakotas during the evening. High-based and fast-moving clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern. These storms may move into northwest MN before weakening. ...Gulf Coast and Southeast States... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from southern MS into southern AL/GA. Decreasing cloud cover to the south of the convection will aid in destabilization, with a general intensification of thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Strong deep-layer westerly winds aloft and sufficient CAPE will promote occasional storm intensification with locally damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Activity may spread as far east as southeast GA this evening. ...South TX into Southern LA... Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced southern-stream upper trough over west TX/northern Mexico. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max are expected to aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of northern Mexico, tracking into south TX. Widespread morning storms over south TX have greatly stabilized the air mass in this region, lending uncertainty to how numerous/intense these afternoon storms may become. Therefore will maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate later today. Whatever activity evolves across TX will track across the northwest Gulf and move into southern LA late tonight, with the potential for damaging wind gusts. Read more

MD 0807 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0807 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162231Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to gradually increase across the lower MS Valley this evening. There is some consideration for a new watch across this region later this evening. DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection is focused across the lower MS Valley early this evening. An expansive MCS has evolved across east TX/northern LA and the leading edge of this activity is slowly sagging south, but spreading/developing east of ww249. Later this evening, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across the northwestern Gulf Basin into LA, and this will encourage convective overturning of a very moist/buoyant air mass south of the MCS. Marginally severe hail is possible with this activity but damaging winds may be the primary risk, especially if line segments are able to evolve. ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31249146 30218916 29088985 30129182 31249146 Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW LBX TO 30 N HOU TO 40 W POE. ..SPC..05/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-170140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-351-361-457-481-170140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NEWTON ORANGE TYLER WHARTON Read more

WW 249 TORNADO LA TX CW 161940Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and spread east-southeastward through early tonight along a composite outflow boundary sagging southward across east Texas. The potential for supercells with large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and a couple of tornadoes will increase with new storm development south of the outflow. Otherwise, embedded supercells and bowing segments will pose a threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph, as well as a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of College Station TX to 5 miles east southeast of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 250 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E FST TO 40 S MAF TO 20 SSE MAF TO 5 NE MAF TO 20 NNE MAF TO 45 NE BGS. ..BENTLEY..05/16/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 250 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC033-049-059-081-083-095-105-151-173-227-235-267-307-317-319- 327-329-335-353-383-399-411-413-415-431-435-441-451-461- 170140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT FISHER GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MARTIN MASON MENARD MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 250 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 162000Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 250 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas into the Edwards Plateau * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon/evening while spreading from southeast New Mexico into west Texas and the Edwards Plateau. The main threats will be large hail up to 2 inches in diameter with the more discrete supercells, while severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph will be possible as storms grow upscale into one or more line segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Hobbs NM to 60 miles northeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248...WW 249... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0807 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0807 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162231Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to gradually increase across the lower MS Valley this evening. There is some consideration for a new watch across this region later this evening. DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection is focused across the lower MS Valley early this evening. An expansive MCS has evolved across east TX/northern LA and the leading edge of this activity is slowly sagging south, but spreading/developing east of ww249. Later this evening, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across the northwestern Gulf Basin into LA, and this will encourage convective overturning of a very moist/buoyant air mass south of the MCS. Marginally severe hail is possible with this activity but damaging winds may be the primary risk, especially if line segments are able to evolve. ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31249146 30218916 29088985 30129182 31249146 Read more

WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 250 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE FST TO 40 ESE INK TO 30 WNW MAF TO 20 WSW LBB. ..BENTLEY..05/16/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 250 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-049-059-081-083-095-103-105-115-135-151-165-169-173- 227-235-267-305-307-317-319-327-329-335-353-383-399-411-413-415- 431-435-441-445-451-461-170040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION KIMBLE LYNN MCCULLOCH MARTIN MASON MENARD MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN REAGAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TERRY TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 250 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 162000Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 250 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas into the Edwards Plateau * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon/evening while spreading from southeast New Mexico into west Texas and the Edwards Plateau. The main threats will be large hail up to 2 inches in diameter with the more discrete supercells, while severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph will be possible as storms grow upscale into one or more line segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Hobbs NM to 60 miles northeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248...WW 249... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0805 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250... FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0805 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250... Valid 162155Z - 162330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for primarily large hail to continue into the evening. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have formed atop the outflow/composite front across eastern New Mexico/West Texas. These storms have shown some supercell structures but have not been overly organized or robust thus far. This is likely due to only moderate MUCAPE (1000 to 1500 J/kg) and deep-layer shear. While fixed-layer 0-6 shear would appear favorable, the inflow base on these storms is likely around 2km. 2-8km shear is only around 25 to 30 knots (per MAF VWP). This likely explains some of the somewhat sporadically organized nature of the convection. The storms farther south and east, closer to the better elevated instability (and 30-35 knots of effective shear per SJT VWP), are more robust and will likely pose the greatest large and potentially very large hail through the evening. ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31390380 32680360 33250285 32990048 31610036 30920145 31030230 31390380 Read more

MD 0806 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 249... FOR SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0806 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...Southeast TX...Southern LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 249... Valid 162156Z - 162330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 249 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually spread southeast across ww249 this evening. Damaging squall line may ultimately evolve over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Expansive MCS has evolved over much of central/east TX late this afternoon. Leading edge of this activity exhibits numerous robust updrafts, extending from ACP-JAS-CLL-3T5. MESH data suggests marginally severe hail is likely observed with the strongest cores, but convective outflow is likely undercutting much of this activity. As the cold pool continues to expand, there is reason to believe one or more bow-type surges could evolve then propagate across the upper TX Coastal Plain toward the lower Sabine River Valley. Latest radar data suggests a developing bow is beginning to accelerate into the northwestern portions of ww249. This squall line may grow upscale and become more efficient in producing damaging winds as it progresses across a very warm/moist air mass immediately downstream. ..Darrow.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30969684 30969189 29389189 29369683 30969684 Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N VCT TO 30 S CLL TO 30 NNE CLL. ..SPC..05/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-162340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC015-039-041-071-089-157-167-185-199-201-241-245-291-313-339- 351-361-373-407-457-471-473-477-481-162340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS CHAMBERS COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N VCT TO 30 S CLL TO 30 NNE CLL. ..SPC..05/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-162340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC015-039-041-071-089-157-167-185-199-201-241-245-291-313-339- 351-361-373-407-457-471-473-477-481-162340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS CHAMBERS COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 249 TORNADO LA TX CW 161940Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and spread east-southeastward through early tonight along a composite outflow boundary sagging southward across east Texas. The potential for supercells with large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and a couple of tornadoes will increase with new storm development south of the outflow. Otherwise, embedded supercells and bowing segments will pose a threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph, as well as a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of College Station TX to 5 miles east southeast of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more