Severe Storms

WW 269 TORNADO CO KS NE 202210Z - 210500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 269 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Extreme northwest Kansas Extreme southwest Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 410 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells are expected to form this evening across northeast CO, and the storms will then move east-northeastward toward extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas through late evening/early tonight. Very large hail to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main threats, though a gradual increase in low-level moisture later this evening will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 30 miles south southwest of Akron CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 268... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0853 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267... FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN IN...SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0853 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Areas affected...Western/central lower MI into northern IN...southern Lake Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267... Valid 202021Z - 202215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible as storms spread eastward late this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Occasionally organized convection is ongoing from Chicagoland into southern lower MI, in association with an MCV moving across WI/northern IL. Downstream moisture/instability across lower MI remains somewhat limited, though continued heating may eventually support MLCAPE of near 1000 J/kg. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow attendant to the MCV will support potential for modestly organized storms to spread eastward across the lake into lower MI late this afternoon into early evening. A nearly stationary front is draped across southern lower MI. Relatively clear skies are supporting diurnal heating on both sides of the front, though temperatures are notably warmer (well into the 80s F) to the south of the boundary. Some threat for locally damaging wind may accompany storms as they move into the region, especially near/south of the boundary where stronger heating/mixing has occurred this afternoon. Stronger embedded cells could also pose at least a transient hail threat. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 41418718 41768778 42858772 43868720 44228658 44408616 44388455 44218415 42728445 41978524 41648564 41518620 41468639 41418718 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the West, with the strongest midlevel flow confined to the northwestern CONUS. Along the southern periphery of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed air mass from the Southwest into the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected each afternoon, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels across the region. 40-percent Critical probabilities remain in place for these days, though confidence in any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday... On Day 5/Friday, west-southwesterly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Southwest, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given the strengthening midlevel flow and a modest surface pressure gradient, critical conditions are expected on Day 5/Friday over northeast AZ and northwest NM. Thereafter, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains on Day 6/Saturday. This will promote another day of dry/windy conditions across the region, with the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH atop receptive fuels expected over southern NM, where critical conditions are expected. Elevated to locally critical conditions will likely continue on Day 7/Sunday, though midlevel flow will be slightly weaker than days prior -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more