Severe Storms

WW 272 SEVERE TSTM IA MN 202345Z - 210500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and north central Iowa South central and southeast Minnesota * Effective this Monday night from 645 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this evening along a slow moving front across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. The storm environment will favor a mix of multicell clusters and storms with supercell structure capable of producing large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts up to 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles east of Rochester MN to 50 miles west of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 268...WW 269...WW 270...WW 271... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0858 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 269... FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 0858 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Colorado Concerning...Tornado Watch 269... Valid 210013Z - 210215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 269 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms may begin to consolidate into at least one increasingly prominent supercell across and east of the Akron CO vicinity of northeastern Colorado through 7-9 PM MDT. This may be accompanied by a risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, locally damaging wind gusts and increasing potential for a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms development has been slowly increasing to the north of the Palmer Ridge, with intensification initially slowed by rather modest boundary-layer instability. Downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing crossing the Intermountain West, cyclogenesis is underway to the lee of the southern Rockies. A corridor of strengthening warm advection centered around around the 700 mb level is becoming focused across northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska, and associated forcing for ascent may contribute to consolidation of ongoing storms approaching areas near/northwest of Akron CO through 01-03Z. At the same time, continued boundary-layer moistening on easterly low-level flow beneath steepening lapse rates may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear beneath a strong west-southwesterly jet nosing across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains will support substantive intensification as inflow into convection becomes increasingly unstable. It seems probable that this will include the evolution of at least one prominent supercell, which may tend to remain focused along the baroclinic zone as it propagates eastward within 30+ kt southwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow. ..Kerr.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 40300373 40720246 39970166 39580236 39750338 40300373 Read more

WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0273 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0273 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0269 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 269 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 269 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-121-123-125-210240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-210240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE NEC057-210240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY Read more

WW 0270 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 270 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 270 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-033-105-123-157-210240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-021-031-210240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0271 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 271 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 271 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC085-133-210240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON MONONA NEC001-011-019-021-023-025-035-037-039-053-055-059-061-067-077- 079-081-083-093-095-097-099-109-119-121-125-129-131-137-141-143- 151-153-155-159-163-167-169-173-175-177-181-185-210240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOONE BUFFALO BURT BUTLER CASS CLAY COLFAX CUMING DODGE DOUGLAS FILLMORE FRANKLIN GAGE GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON KEARNEY LANCASTER MADISON MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS OTOE PHELPS PLATTE POLK SALINE SARPY Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 Read more