Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-027-035-049-059-081-083-085-093-095-099-105-113-119-121- 133-139-143-145-147-161-181-193-213-217-221-223-231-235-251-257- 277-281-293-307-309-327-333-349-367-379-397-399-411-413-425-431- 435-439-451-467-222140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL CROCKETT DALLAS DELTA DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FANNIN FREESTONE GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT IRION JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MENARD MILLS NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SOMERVELL STERLING SUTTON TARRANT TOM GREEN VAN ZANDT Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC031-035-037-077-093-111-123-222140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT ST. FRANCIS KYC035-039-047-075-083-105-157-219-221-222140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN MARSHALL TODD TRIGG MSC003-009-033-093-137-139-143-222140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON DESOTO Read more

MD 0893 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... FOR FAR NORTHEAST AR...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0893 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Far Northeast AR...Western/Middle TN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285... Valid 221834Z - 222000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285 continues. SUMMARY...A transition to a more linear mode may be underway across far northeast Arkansas, with damaging gusts becoming the primary severe hazard across western/middle Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Ongoing severe thunderstorms across far northeast AR have undergone notable intensification and organization over the past hour, with some trends suggesting an organized MCS may be evolving. Recent surface observation at JBR sampled a 61 kt gust when the relatively small supercell moved over. This cell has continued eastward, maintaining a strong velocity signature while also trending towards a more forward-propagating structure. The cell to the west of NQA currently has a similar velocity signature, while also increasing its forward propagation as well. These trends, coupled with strengthening westerly flow aloft, appear to favor a transition to a more linear mode, perhaps relatively soon. This would also signal shift in the primary hazard from hail to damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35719085 36298980 36538863 36648778 36378736 35698761 34948904 34579098 35719085 Read more

MD 0892 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TX...CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...NORTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0892 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Southwest TX...Central/North-Central TX...Northeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221712Z - 221915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase quickly over the next hour or so. Environmental conditions support severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3-4" in diameter. One or more watches may be needed across this area to address the anticipated severe potential. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from just north of GYI in Grayson county southwestward to about 50 miles north of ABI and then more east-southeastward into the Permian Basin. Weak surface troughing precedes the cold front, demarcated by a wind shift from southerly south of the boundary to northerly north of it. This troughing was likely influential in the recent intensification of the cells in north-central TX. General expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to increase as these boundaries continue southward/southeastward throughout the day. The airmass from southwest TX into north-central/central and northeast TX is characterized by ample low-level moisture and very strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is over 3000 J/kg for this entire region. Vertical shear is quite strong too, with effective bulk shear values in the 50 to 60 kt. Some minimal convective inhibition likely remains, but this should erode quickly over the next hour or so, with robust thunderstorm development anticipated along and ahead of these boundaries. An initially more cellular mode should favor very large hail up to 3-4" in diameter as the primary risk. Given that discrete supercells are possible initially, some tornado potential exists as well. Over time, interactions between these storms and their cold pools should result in upscale growth into one or more convective line. Given the overall environment, these convective lines could produce severe gusts. One or more watches may be needed across this area to address the anticipated severe potential. ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32190117 33079892 33319812 33739637 32959514 31349718 30910140 32190117 Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0288 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0890 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST AR...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN...NORTHWEST MS...FAR SOUTHWEST KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0890 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Northeast AR...Western and Middle TN...Northwest MS... Far Southwest KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221626Z - 221830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated from northeast Arkansas into western and middle Tennessee, northwest Mississippi, and far southwest Kentucky this afternoon. Large hail and strong gusts are possible, and a watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown and increase in deeper convection across northeast AR, along and ahead of a southeastward-progressing cold front. Airmass preceding this front continues to destabilize, with recent surface observations sampling temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. This warm and moist low-level environment is helping to support strong buoyancy, despite relatively warm mid-levels and associated poor lapse rates. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is ranges from around 2500 J/kg across northeast AR to around 1000 J/kg over middle TN. Deep layer vertical shear over much of this region is currently modest, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear around 30 to 40 kt. Both buoyancy and vertical shear are forecast to increase throughout the afternoon, with the increase in buoyancy driven by continued heating and the increase in shear supported by increasing mid-level flow. General expectation is for the currently shallow convection ahead of the front to deepen over time, with thunderstorm development likely. Increasing deep layer shear should promote an organized storm mode, with supercells possible. Large hail up to 1.75" to 2" in diameter will likely be the primary risk with initial, more cellular storms. The ongoing activity over northwest AR is expected to continue eastward, with some interaction between this activity and the more cellular, pre-frontal development is anticipated. This interaction, coupled with the steady southeastward progression of the cold front, will likely promote the transition to a more linear mode. Given the strengthening westerly flow aloft and ample low-level moisture, the development of a forward-propagating MCS is possible. Damaging gusts would be the primary risk with any linear development. Given all of these factors, a watch will likely be needed soon to cover the severe potential. ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 35109187 36548997 36878848 36278737 34918840 34178997 34219091 35109187 Read more

MD 0891 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NEW YORK INTO PARTS UPPER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0891 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Western New York into parts upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221628Z - 221830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is possible for parts of western/central New York into the upper Ohio Valley. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. An isolated brief tornado and large hail may occur with the stronger, more organized activity. DISCUSSION...Convection has been most intense right ahead of an MCV tracking into northwest Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. Destabilization continues to occur ahead of this activity and farther south into western Pennsylvania and vicinity. Convection is likely to continue in close proximity to the MCV as well as additional development within the Allegheny Mountains. Buoyancy may be more limited into southeast Ohio/northern West Virginia due to cloud cover. Observed morning soundings from the region showed mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. Deep layer shear this far east will be weaker given the displacement from the primary synoptic wave in the Upper Midwest. However, some modest increase in shear should occur through the day. Storms will be capable of damaging winds primarily. Some risk for a brief tornado is also evident given modest low-level hodograph turning on area VAD profiles. Large hail could occur with the strongest storms, but weak upper-level flow will likely keep this threat more isolated. A watch may eventually be needed should convective trends warrant. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 42257981 43227850 43247715 41577734 40147813 39617857 39148007 38708090 38748142 38748174 39798164 42257981 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more