Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Friday - Southwest... A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest. These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains... As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Friday - Southwest... A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest. These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains... As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Friday - Southwest... A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest. These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains... As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Day 3/Friday - Southwest... A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, while a related belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow overspreads a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. This will promote a deepening surface low over the southern Great Basin, with a tightening pressure gradient across the Southwest. These factors will yield strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across much of AZ and NM, with the best chance for several hours of critical conditions over northeast AZ and northwest NM -- where fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southwest and southern High Plains... As the large-scale trough continues eastward across the western CONUS, a strong midlevel jet streak will cross the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will result in a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a sharpening dryline extending southward over the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support an expansive area of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH across NM into west TX. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels over much of the area, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Strong midlevel westerly flow trailing the aforementioned trough will persist across NM on Day 5/Sunday, where warm/dry conditions will persist. As a result, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected, before winds decrease across the region through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UOX TO 15 SSW MKL TO 20 WNW BNA. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC107-222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS KYC033-047-107-143-177-221-222240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CHRISTIAN HOPKINS LYON MUHLENBERG TRIGG MSC003-009-027-033-057-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-137-139-141- 143-145-222240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UOX TO 15 SSW MKL TO 20 WNW BNA. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC107-222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS KYC033-047-107-143-177-221-222240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CHRISTIAN HOPKINS LYON MUHLENBERG TRIGG MSC003-009-027-033-057-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-137-139-141- 143-145-222240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UOX TO 15 SSW MKL TO 20 WNW BNA. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC107-222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS KYC033-047-107-143-177-221-222240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CHRISTIAN HOPKINS LYON MUHLENBERG TRIGG MSC003-009-027-033-057-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-137-139-141- 143-145-222240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE Read more

WW 285 SEVERE TSTM AR KY MO MS TN 221645Z - 230000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southwest Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms that are forming over eastern Arkansas will intensify this afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible with the stronger cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Jonesboro AR to 30 miles south southeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 284... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DEQ TO 25 NNW DEQ TO 5 NE HRO. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-013-019-023-025-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-065- 067-069-071-075-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-113- 115-117-119-121-125-127-129-133-135-137-141-145-147-149- 222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL Read more

WW 284 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 221505Z - 222200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Western Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1005 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma will track across Arkansas through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west southwest of De Queen AR to 40 miles northwest of Batesville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0895 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... FOR WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KY...NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0895 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Western/Middle TN...Far Southwest/South-Central KY...Northern MS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285... Valid 222008Z - 222145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail continues from western/middle Tennessee into southwest/south-central Kentucky, with a corridor of greater potential for severe gusts from western into northern middle TN. Additionally, a downstream watch with the next hour. DISCUSSION...Upscale growth/linear transition has occurred with the cells that moved across far northeast AR into far western TN, with the resulting convective line now moving eastward/northeastward across western TN. Radar imagery shows a velocity signature indicative of a rear-inflow jet , with limited reflective behind this area indicative of a descending rear-inflow jet as well. Expectation is for this line to progress northeastward, with the ongoing storms preceding the line representing a favored corridor for propagation. This corridor also represents an area for greater damaging gust potential over the next hour or so. Overall progression of this line will likely necessitate the need for a downstream watch with the next hour. Farther south, the ongoing cluster across far east-central AR/northwest MS will continue to pose a risk for isolated hail and damaging gusts as it moves gradually eastward across northern MS this afternoon. ..Mosier.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36178974 36858831 37038587 35518568 35078736 34409025 36178974 Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 288 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E EKN TO 10 W HGR TO 15 N AOO TO 40 E BFD TO 10 NNE ELM TO 25 NNW ART. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898 ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-222240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-222240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE PRX TO 25 SW FYV. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 284 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-013-019-023-025-029-033-039-045-047-051-053-057-059-061- 063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-101-103-105- 109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133-135-137-141-145-147- 149-222240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0289 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0289 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0894 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...MUCH OF ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0894 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeast Oklahoma...Far Northeast Texas...Much of Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284... Valid 221903Z - 222030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging gusts remain possible from far southeast Oklahoma and far northeast Texas across much of Arkansas. Large hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. DISCUSSION...The earlier convection across northwestern AR weakened as it moved into central portions of the state, with limited thunderstorm activity over the past hour or so. Farther southwest, an elevated thunderstorm has undergone notable intensification/organization as it moves across southeast OK, maintaining a robust updraft over much of the last hour. Strong buoyancy and vertical shear exist within the airmass downstream of this cell, suggesting the severe threat will likely persist with this supercell as it moves from Pushmataha County eastward into southern Le Flore and northern McCurtain Counties. Additionally, thunderstorm development continues to progress northeastward into the region from north-central TX. The surface pattern is convoluted by the ongoing precipitation, but this activity appears to be mostly north of the preceding storm outflow but still south of the primary push of cold air. As such, the threat for surface-based storms still exists in this area (far southeast OK/southwest AR) for the next few hours, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. ..Mosier.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34159626 34799508 35259277 35009136 33649320 33499561 34159626 Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 288 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..05/22/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC005-013-021-031-043-510-222140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CARROLL FREDERICK MONTGOMERY WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NYC003-007-011-015-017-023-037-045-049-051-053-055-065-067-069- 075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-222140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND GENESEE JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was needed at 20Z. Large supercells are currently forming along the front across central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable and deep-sheared environment. To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see mesoscale discussions 893 and 894. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. Read more