Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0955 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0955 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Mississippi into central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252023Z - 252200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may continue to increase in both coverage and intensity along residual outflow. Some of the stronger storms may produce damaging gusts and perhaps some large hail. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Several strong thunderstorms, including multicells and potential transient supercells, have been gradually intensifying along a diffuse outflow boundary left behind by earlier storms. These storms are ingesting a very buoyant airmass, characterized by 90+/70+ F surface temperatures/dewpoints, where MLCAPE has reached 3000 J/kg. Coinciding this strong instability are elongated hodographs and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear, driven primarily by stronger mid-level flow. As such, these storms should continue to further intensify, potentially with damaging gusts and perhaps an instance or two of large hail. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 33639026 32998746 32458648 31838607 31618616 31518659 31788764 32358884 32848980 33639026 Read more

WW 0308 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 308 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 308 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-019-033-035-047-049-073-077-079-095-097-145-151-155- 173-185-191-252240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY EDWARDS ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-037-039-043- 045-047-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083- 085-087-093-095-099-103-107-109-113-117-119-123-125-129-133-137- 141-149-151-153-252240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON Read more

WW 0308 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 308 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 308 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-019-033-035-047-049-073-077-079-095-097-145-151-155- 173-185-191-252240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY EDWARDS ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-037-039-043- 045-047-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083- 085-087-093-095-099-103-107-109-113-117-119-123-125-129-133-137- 141-149-151-153-252240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON Read more

WW 0308 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 308 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 308 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-019-033-035-047-049-073-077-079-095-097-145-151-155- 173-185-191-252240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY EDWARDS ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-037-039-043- 045-047-049-051-053-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083- 085-087-093-095-099-103-107-109-113-117-119-123-125-129-133-137- 141-149-151-153-252240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON Read more

WW 308 TORNADO KS OK TX 252025Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southcentral Kansas Western and Central Oklahoma Extreme Northcentral Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorm development is expected to continue through this evening, with storms moving generally east across the watch area. The risk for strong, long-track tornadoes will exist, in addition to giant hail, possibly up to 5 inches in diameter. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 75 mph can also be expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Hutchinson KS to 60 miles west southwest of Sherman TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 306...WW 307... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0307 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 307 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 307 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-193-207-237-253-281-307- 333-353-363-399-411-417-429-441-447-451-503-252240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HAMILTON HASKELL JACK JONES LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MILLS NOLAN PALO PINTO RUNNELS SAN SABA SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0307 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 307 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 307 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-193-207-237-253-281-307- 333-353-363-399-411-417-429-441-447-451-503-252240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HAMILTON HASKELL JACK JONES LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MILLS NOLAN PALO PINTO RUNNELS SAN SABA SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0307 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 307 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 307 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-193-207-237-253-281-307- 333-353-363-399-411-417-429-441-447-451-503-252240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HAMILTON HASKELL JACK JONES LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MILLS NOLAN PALO PINTO RUNNELS SAN SABA SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 307 TORNADO TX 251915Z - 260200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms will move east across the watch area through early this evening. Very large hail, up to 4 inches in diameter, will be possible in addition to a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Abilene TX to 60 miles south southwest of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 306... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW AUO TO 40 WNW ABY TO 15 NE ABY TO 55 ENE ABY TO 10 SSW VDI TO 30 ENE VDI. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-067-069-109-252240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON PIKE FLC059-063-131-133-252240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC003-007-017-019-027-037-061-069-071-075-087-095-099-131-155- 161-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-271-273-275-277-279-287-309- 321-252240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0953 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0953 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...easter portions of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251922Z - 252115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong wind gusts or an instance of large hail may accompany the stronger storms, particularly those that can remain near sea-breeze boundaries. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple pulse-cellular thunderstorms have developed due to localized convergence along sea-breeze boundaries over the past few hours. Along the sea-breeze boundary, locally stronger deep-layer shear exists (per 19Z mesoanalysis). As such, any storm that can anchor to the sea-breeze for a longer period of time will be capable of becoming transient supercellular, perhaps accompanied with the risk of strong wind gusts or an instances or two of hail. Nonetheless, the localized and brief nature of the severe threat along the sea-breeze boundary precludes a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 28208086 27768034 26628002 25998012 25878050 26228090 27058107 27598117 27848123 28208086 Read more

WW 0308 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0308 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more