Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 Read more

MD 1056 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346... FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346... Valid 282305Z - 290100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk will concentrate across central and eastern portions of ww0346 over the next few hours. Hail remains the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Multiple storm mergers, and significant convective overturning, have stabilized portions of the southern TX Panhandle and southeast CO. Over the last hour or so, a significant cluster of storms has evolved over the western OK and northwestern TX Panhandles region. This activity may begin to propagate east into portions of ww0346 that have yet to experience significant convection, especially the northern TX Panhandle into the central OK Panhandle. Large hail is the primary threat. ..Darrow.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34550375 38310364 38310106 34550129 34550375 Read more

WW 0344 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 344 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 344 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269- 279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-290140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS FLOYD GARZA HALE HALL HOCKLEY KENT KING LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY PARMER STONEWALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0345 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 345 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 345 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-081-103-105-115-135-151-165-173-227-235-317-329-335- 353-371-383-413-415-431-435-443-451-461-465-290140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0346 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 346 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 346 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-061-099-290140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT KIOWA PROWERS KSC067-075-093-129-187-189-290140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT HAMILTON KEARNY MORTON STANTON STEVENS NMC009-021-037-041-290140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT Read more

WW 0347 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 347 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/29/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 347 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-290140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON KSC071-181-199-203-290140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1057 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345... FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 1057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345... Valid 282315Z - 290045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat of large hail and severe wind gusts will continue across portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau DISCUSSION...A right moving supercell, along with another deepening updraft on its western flank, will continue to progress eastward into Crockett and Val Verde Counties over the next hour. The downstream convective environment will remain favorable for updraft organization, with deep effective shear around 45-55 kt, and steep mid level lapse rates contributing to around 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Large hail around 1.5 to 2.5" will remain the main severe threat with these thunderstorms. However, severe wind gust potential may increase through the evening hours as a deeper cold pool develops with merging updrafts. ..Barnes.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30010201 30150211 30780225 31100225 31150144 30840081 30700007 30280014 29900042 29820081 29800110 29850172 30060210 30010201 Read more

MD 1057 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345... FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 1057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345... Valid 282315Z - 290045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat of large hail and severe wind gusts will continue across portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and Edwards Plateau DISCUSSION...A right moving supercell, along with another deepening updraft on its western flank, will continue to progress eastward into Crockett and Val Verde Counties over the next hour. The downstream convective environment will remain favorable for updraft organization, with deep effective shear around 45-55 kt, and steep mid level lapse rates contributing to around 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Large hail around 1.5 to 2.5" will remain the main severe threat with these thunderstorms. However, severe wind gust potential may increase through the evening hours as a deeper cold pool develops with merging updrafts. ..Barnes.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30010201 30150211 30780225 31100225 31150144 30840081 30700007 30280014 29900042 29820081 29800110 29850172 30060210 30010201 Read more