Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE. ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Friday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Friday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big Bend. Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. Read more