Severe Storms

WW 0355 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 355 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 355 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-031-069-081-085-119-310040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER TXC203-365-403-405-419-310040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON PANOLA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 355 SEVERE TSTM LA TX 302235Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 355 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Louisiana Northeast Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 535 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms over northeast Texas will track eastward across the watch area this evening, posing a risk of locally damaging winds and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of Shreveport LA to 15 miles north northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 352...WW 353...WW 354... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1083 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Central/East TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 353... Valid 302203Z - 302330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 353 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread across southern and eastern portions of ww353 over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of long-lived MCS has progressed across north-central TX and now arcs from the northeast corner of the watch into McLennan County in central TX. Numerous updrafts along this corridor are likely producing hail to near 1 inch along with gusty winds. This activity will continue advancing southeast into an air mass weakly inhibited and amply buoyant for sustaining strong/severe convection. ..Darrow.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30839848 32269849 32569446 31119444 30839848 Read more

MD 1082 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ARKLATEX REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...Arklatex Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302139Z - 302315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Convection will spread across the Arklatex region over the next few hours. Gusty winds along with marginally severe hail are expected. Some consideration is being given to a new watch immediately downstream of ww0353. DISCUSSION...Remnants of pre-dawn MCS that developed over the southern High Plains have propagated downstream into the Arklatex region. Diurnal heating and weak inhibition have contributed to renewed development along the leading edge of this long-lived MCS. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s ahead of this activity across northern LA/southern AR which is contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg within a modestly sheared environment. Additionally, latest water-vapor imagery/model guidance suggest a weak short-wave trough is associated with this convection which should encourage further advancement downstream into an air mass that will support robust updrafts. Current thinking is marginally severe hail is possible along with gusty winds. Some consideration is being given to a new watch immediately downstream of ww0353. ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV... LAT...LON 32779466 33179319 32719260 32209309 32199456 32779466 Read more

WW 0354 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 354 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 354 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-302340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-081-103-105-115-135-165-173-227-235-317-329-335-371- 383-413-415-431-435-443-451-461-465-475-495-302340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR GAINES GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0352 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 352 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 352 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-041-059-302340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-302340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-111-117-125-129-153-169-179-189- 191-195-205-219-233-263-279-303-305-341-345-357-359-369-375-381- 393-421-437-445-501-302340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN Read more

WW 0353 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 353 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BWD TO ACT TO 40 SSW TXK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083 ..DEAN..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 353 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-093-099-145-161-183-193-225-281-289- 293-309-313-331-333-347-395-401-423-455-459-302340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE COMANCHE CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GREGG HAMILTON HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MILLS NACOGDOCHES ROBERTSON RUSK SMITH TRINITY UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0355 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0355 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge building over the West mid to late next week resulting in temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of 90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend... West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of 5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile. BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday. Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida... A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central and south Florida and recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding days. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more