Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ...Southeast... Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ...Southeast... Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ...Southeast... Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ...Southeast... Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ...Southeast... Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024 Read more

MD 1224 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR INTO NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1224 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0916 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Central/southern AR into northern MS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401... Valid 100216Z - 100345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401 continues. SUMMARY...A strong storm or two remains possible late this evening, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. DISCUSSION...Convection has generally weakened and become less organized this evening from central AR into northern MS, with a tendency for storms to be undercut by an outflow-reinforced front. However, relatively rich low-level moisture persists north of the outflow, and moderate buoyancy could still support a few stronger storms late this evening, with effective shear still marginally supportive of organized convection. Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late this evening, especially with any left-moving cell (such as the severe storm earlier in Lee County, MS). However, if current trends continue, additional watch issuance across the area after the expiration of WW 401 is not anticipated. ..Dean/Bunting.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34489443 34839324 35029233 34589038 34028907 33458856 33078865 32998914 33109057 34199444 34489443 Read more

WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 402 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 402 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-047-051-055-057-063- 065-073-075-081-091-093-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-127- 133-100340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE MARENGO MARION PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 402 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 402 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-047-051-055-057-063- 065-073-075-081-091-093-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-127- 133-100340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE MARENGO MARION PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 402 SEVERE TSTM AL 092300Z - 100600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northern Alabama * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 600 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east across the watch area this evening and tonight, with a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Tuscaloosa AL to 30 miles east southeast of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 401... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 401 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RUE TO 30 ESE RUE TO 25 ENE LIT TO 25 ENE CBM. WW 401 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224 ..DEAN..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC051-053-059-097-105-113-125-127-149-100300- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING MONTGOMERY PERRY POLK SALINE SCOTT YELL MSC011-015-019-025-043-083-087-097-103-105-133-155-159-100300- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAY GRENADA LEFLORE LOWNDES MONTGOMERY NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA SUNFLOWER WEBSTER WINSTON Read more

WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 401 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RUE TO 30 ESE RUE TO 25 ENE LIT TO 25 ENE CBM. WW 401 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224 ..DEAN..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC051-053-059-097-105-113-125-127-149-100300- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING MONTGOMERY PERRY POLK SALINE SCOTT YELL MSC011-015-019-025-043-083-087-097-103-105-133-155-159-100300- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAY GRENADA LEFLORE LOWNDES MONTGOMERY NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA SUNFLOWER WEBSTER WINSTON Read more

WW 401 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 092100Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 401 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Arkansas Northern Mississippi Far Southwest Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop and intensify late this afternoon and early evening while spreading slowly east-southeastward. Damaging winds of 55-70 mph may occur with any clusters, while severe hail of 1-2 inches in diameter appears possible with any discrete cells that can be maintained. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Russellville AR to 10 miles north northeast of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1223 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401...402... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN MS...AND SOUTHEASTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern AL...northern MS...and southeastern AR Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401...402... Valid 100019Z - 100145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401, 402 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watches 401 and 402. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from parts of southeastern AR eastward into northern AL -- generally focused along a sagging frontal boundary. While a warm/moist boundary layer and around 30-35 kt of unidirectional westerly deep-layer shear (per regional VWP) continue to support organized/transient supercell structures and small clusters, there has been a tendency for storms to be undercut by the southward-sagging boundary and outflow -- given the westerly storm motions and shear. This suggests that isolated large hail (up to 1.5 inches) will be the primary threat with any organized/sustained storms, though locally damaging gusts are also possible. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34139144 34369187 34599194 34809169 34739093 34478959 34308735 34268629 34118606 33738601 33468610 33258654 33218725 33478895 33739021 34139144 Read more

MD 1222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NC...NORTHWESTERN SC...AND FAR NORTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southwestern NC...northwestern SC...and far northeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092349Z - 100145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are possible through around 02Z. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is evolving along the leading edge of antecedent outflow over western NC as of 2340Z, though organization has been limited thus far. As these storms continue east-southeastward through around 02Z, there is some potential for the development of a loosely organized cluster (and perhaps transient supercell structures), given a warm/moist pre-convective boundary layer and around 40-50 kt of unidirectional effective shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates (contributing to a weak/skinny buoyancy profile), limited large-scale ascent, and time-of-day may tend to limit overall intensity/organization of storms. Nevertheless, locally damaging gusts (45-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (to near 1 inch) cannot be ruled out. Additional strong/loosely organized cellular development is also possible trailing southwestward into far northeastern GA, with a localized risk for strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Currently, the severe threat appears too localized and marginal for a watch, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 35338029 35578066 35688112 35678147 35458196 35278254 35068346 34968389 34748406 34508405 34318369 34288337 34338284 34218241 33928163 33878089 34258034 34638013 34988006 35338029 Read more

WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 402 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223 ..WEINMAN..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 402 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-043-047-051-055-057- 063-065-073-075-081-091-093-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-125- 127-133-100240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE MARENGO MARION PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 401 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RUE TO 45 WSW MEM TO 35 SW MSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223 ..WEINMAN..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-041-051-053-059-069-077-079-083-085-095-097-105-107-113- 117-119-125-127-149-100240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS DESHA GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PHILLIPS POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT YELL MSC011-013-015-017-019-025-027-043-057-071-081-083-087-095-097- 103-105-107-115-119-133-135-137-143-145-155-159-161-100240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAY Read more

MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OR INTO SOUTHWEST ID AND EXTREME NORTHERN NV
Mesoscale Discussion 1221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Southeast OR into southwest ID and extreme northern NV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092328Z - 100130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and severe gusts are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast OR and vicinity, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Pacific Northwest. MLCAPE of up to 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear are supporting occasionally organized storm structures, with a couple of stronger cells noted across Malheur County, Oregon. Those cells will eventually encounter stronger MLCINH to the northeast, but isolated hail and severe gusts will remain possible in the short term. Other less-organized convection is ongoing farther west into south-central OR, and also moving out of far northern NV. A stronger cell or two could develop across those areas as well, but even the ongoing less-organized convection could pose a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts, especially where the environment remains rather warm and well mixed. ..Dean/Bunting.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...MFR... LAT...LON 41641905 41901981 42172057 42612086 43252035 43541891 43971710 43851605 43151585 41951536 41731709 41631876 41641905 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more