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1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should
occur across parts of the northern/central High Plains this
afternoon and early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms
may also occur across portions of the Southeast and southern Plains
beginning this afternoon, where large hail and damaging winds will
be possible.
...Northern/Central High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery
over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today
over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over
eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through
early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the
central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward
through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High
Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the
front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s.
But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the
development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow
corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected
to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow
with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt
of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to
develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame.
Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but
quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably
lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves
quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The
relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity
should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent
across the northern/central High Plains.
...Southeast...
Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across
southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level
airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will
likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by
early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled
with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over
the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by
18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak
westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with
height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient
deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a
concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance
shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively
long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds
will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can
develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening.
Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL
and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage
will remain more isolated across these areas.
...Southern Plains...
A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is
evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted
in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX
Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High
Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain
later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the
southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the
front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow
and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to
yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level
shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to
variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized
across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this
scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated
supercells that can develop.
..Gleason/Moore.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should
occur across parts of the northern/central High Plains this
afternoon and early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms
may also occur across portions of the Southeast and southern Plains
beginning this afternoon, where large hail and damaging winds will
be possible.
...Northern/Central High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery
over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today
over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over
eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through
early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the
central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward
through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High
Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the
front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s.
But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the
development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow
corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected
to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow
with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt
of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to
develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame.
Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but
quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably
lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves
quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The
relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity
should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent
across the northern/central High Plains.
...Southeast...
Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across
southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level
airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will
likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by
early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled
with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over
the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by
18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak
westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with
height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient
deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a
concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance
shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively
long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds
will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can
develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening.
Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL
and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage
will remain more isolated across these areas.
...Southern Plains...
A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is
evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted
in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX
Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High
Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain
later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the
southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the
front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow
and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to
yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level
shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to
variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized
across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this
scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated
supercells that can develop.
..Gleason/Moore.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Please see the discussion
below for additional meteorological details. In addition, breezy
northwest winds around 15-25 mph will develop this afternoon in and
around the Sacramento and San Andres Mountains of NM via a localized
tight pressure gradient. However, cooler temperatures will only
yield minimum RH of 25-35 percent within these regions, precluding
the need for an Elevated area.
..Barnes.. 06/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions
across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While
these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface
winds and the overall fire-weather threat.
Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result,
locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps
over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally
elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
GA/SC...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across
portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible.
...GA/SC...
Morning surface analysis shows a surface cold front sagging slowly
southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level
airmass is present in vicinity of the boundary, where substantial
daytime heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE by early
afternoon. Most model guidance is in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, tracking
eastward and offshore by early evening. Low-level winds are
strongly veered and rather weak, but fast westerly flow aloft will
promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds
and hail.
...WY/NE/Dakotas...
Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over
western MT. This feature will track eastward today, with an
associated surface boundary becoming established from western ND
into eastern WY. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along
this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable
environment. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates,
veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear supportive
of supercell storms capable large hail and damaging winds. A
tornado or two is possible. Other more isolated but intense cells
may form in the deeply-mixed boundary layer farther west across
northern WY as well.
...West TX...
A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will
result in strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of
West TX today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a
southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon
and track across West TX through the evening. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates coupled with rather strong winds aloft will
pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest
cells. Given the consistent signal in recent CAM solutions, have
added a small SLGT for this scenario.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
GA/SC...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across
portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible.
...GA/SC...
Morning surface analysis shows a surface cold front sagging slowly
southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level
airmass is present in vicinity of the boundary, where substantial
daytime heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE by early
afternoon. Most model guidance is in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, tracking
eastward and offshore by early evening. Low-level winds are
strongly veered and rather weak, but fast westerly flow aloft will
promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds
and hail.
...WY/NE/Dakotas...
Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over
western MT. This feature will track eastward today, with an
associated surface boundary becoming established from western ND
into eastern WY. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along
this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable
environment. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates,
veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear supportive
of supercell storms capable large hail and damaging winds. A
tornado or two is possible. Other more isolated but intense cells
may form in the deeply-mixed boundary layer farther west across
northern WY as well.
...West TX...
A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will
result in strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of
West TX today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a
southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon
and track across West TX through the evening. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates coupled with rather strong winds aloft will
pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest
cells. Given the consistent signal in recent CAM solutions, have
added a small SLGT for this scenario.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
GA/SC...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across
portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible.
...GA/SC...
Morning surface analysis shows a surface cold front sagging slowly
southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level
airmass is present in vicinity of the boundary, where substantial
daytime heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE by early
afternoon. Most model guidance is in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, tracking
eastward and offshore by early evening. Low-level winds are
strongly veered and rather weak, but fast westerly flow aloft will
promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds
and hail.
...WY/NE/Dakotas...
Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over
western MT. This feature will track eastward today, with an
associated surface boundary becoming established from western ND
into eastern WY. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along
this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable
environment. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates,
veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear supportive
of supercell storms capable large hail and damaging winds. A
tornado or two is possible. Other more isolated but intense cells
may form in the deeply-mixed boundary layer farther west across
northern WY as well.
...West TX...
A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will
result in strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of
West TX today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a
southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon
and track across West TX through the evening. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates coupled with rather strong winds aloft will
pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest
cells. Given the consistent signal in recent CAM solutions, have
added a small SLGT for this scenario.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
GA/SC...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across
portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible.
...GA/SC...
Morning surface analysis shows a surface cold front sagging slowly
southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level
airmass is present in vicinity of the boundary, where substantial
daytime heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE by early
afternoon. Most model guidance is in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, tracking
eastward and offshore by early evening. Low-level winds are
strongly veered and rather weak, but fast westerly flow aloft will
promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds
and hail.
...WY/NE/Dakotas...
Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over
western MT. This feature will track eastward today, with an
associated surface boundary becoming established from western ND
into eastern WY. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along
this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable
environment. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates,
veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear supportive
of supercell storms capable large hail and damaging winds. A
tornado or two is possible. Other more isolated but intense cells
may form in the deeply-mixed boundary layer farther west across
northern WY as well.
...West TX...
A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will
result in strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of
West TX today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a
southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon
and track across West TX through the evening. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates coupled with rather strong winds aloft will
pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest
cells. Given the consistent signal in recent CAM solutions, have
added a small SLGT for this scenario.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
GA/SC...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across
portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible.
...GA/SC...
Morning surface analysis shows a surface cold front sagging slowly
southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level
airmass is present in vicinity of the boundary, where substantial
daytime heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE by early
afternoon. Most model guidance is in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, tracking
eastward and offshore by early evening. Low-level winds are
strongly veered and rather weak, but fast westerly flow aloft will
promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds
and hail.
...WY/NE/Dakotas...
Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over
western MT. This feature will track eastward today, with an
associated surface boundary becoming established from western ND
into eastern WY. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along
this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable
environment. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates,
veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear supportive
of supercell storms capable large hail and damaging winds. A
tornado or two is possible. Other more isolated but intense cells
may form in the deeply-mixed boundary layer farther west across
northern WY as well.
...West TX...
A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will
result in strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of
West TX today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a
southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon
and track across West TX through the evening. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates coupled with rather strong winds aloft will
pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest
cells. Given the consistent signal in recent CAM solutions, have
added a small SLGT for this scenario.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
GA/SC...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across
portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible.
...GA/SC...
Morning surface analysis shows a surface cold front sagging slowly
southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level
airmass is present in vicinity of the boundary, where substantial
daytime heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE by early
afternoon. Most model guidance is in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, tracking
eastward and offshore by early evening. Low-level winds are
strongly veered and rather weak, but fast westerly flow aloft will
promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds
and hail.
...WY/NE/Dakotas...
Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over
western MT. This feature will track eastward today, with an
associated surface boundary becoming established from western ND
into eastern WY. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along
this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable
environment. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates,
veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear supportive
of supercell storms capable large hail and damaging winds. A
tornado or two is possible. Other more isolated but intense cells
may form in the deeply-mixed boundary layer farther west across
northern WY as well.
...West TX...
A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will
result in strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of
West TX today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a
southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon
and track across West TX through the evening. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates coupled with rather strong winds aloft will
pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest
cells. Given the consistent signal in recent CAM solutions, have
added a small SLGT for this scenario.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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