Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Update... A few minor adjustments were made to the Elevated area for Thursday based on latest fuel receptiveness and trends in overall high resolution wind speed and RH model output. In general, the overall forecast and previous reasoning below remains relatively unchanged. The northern extent of the area was trimmed to exclude less widespread receptive fuels across west-central UT, and extended eastward over the Colorado Plateau of south-central UT where fuels continue to become more receptive. In addition to the hot, dry, and windy conditions expected over the aforementioned regions, a very small Isolated Dry Thunder area was considered for the northwestern Sierra Nevada Mountains of NV mainly east and southeast of Lake Tahoe. However, given the uncertainty of fuels within the area of question, dry thunder will not be included at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track slowly eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong deep-layer southerly flow overspreads the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. This will promote the development of a broad surface low over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its southern periphery. In response, around 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds will develop across portions of northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV -- where a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer and single-digit RH will be in place. Given increasingly dry fuels across these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening on Thursday. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to central Great Lakes... Increasing concern exists for a potentially intense severe weather episode, centered on the late afternoon to early evening across parts of the Midwest. A highly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic space should exist for significant severe hail and wind threats with supercells likely growing upscale into southeast-moving clusters/MCSs. Spatial confidence is only about average for the D2 time frame, rendering moderate uncertainty on the swaths of greatest threat. For now, have upgraded to level 3-ENH risk across the most likely corridor and broadened lower probabilities with added sig severe highlights surrounding it from eastern KS to northwest IN. A fast upper-level jet streak will become centered across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, as a series of embedded shortwave impulses track along the international border into parts of ON/QC. A surface cyclone attendant to the leading impulse should move across eastern ON into QC. A cold front will trail to the southwest, likely centered on southern WI to the KS/NE border area at 21Z. A secondary thermal low should form over the central Great Plains portion of the front with hot temperatures from 100-105 F west of the dryline. A plume of large to extreme buoyancy should develop amid very steep mid-level lapse rates and a corridor of enhanced boundary-layer moisture ahead of the impinging front. Guidance does differ somewhat on the spatiotemporal aspects of convective development near the frontal zone by late Thursday afternoon. 12Z CAMs such as the HRRR are farther east-northeast with their centroid of development along the Mid-MS Valley, while the NSSL-ARW would suggest a centroid farther west over the Mid to Lower MO Valley. Low-level convergence along the front should be fairly similar across both regions, suggesting either corridor may sustain intense storm development. Strong speed shear above 700 mb amid west-northwest flow will support an elongated hodograph. This coupled with ample instability should yield initial splitting supercells capable of very large hail. Orientation of the shear vector semi to nearly paralleling the front should yield upscale growth by early evening, especially with western extent where effective bulk shear is relatively weaker. Given the big MLCAPE, potential for intense downdrafts will exist with significant severe wind gusts of 75-95 mph possible. One or two convective wind swaths may surge southeastward briefly through about dusk. The eastern lobe of the pronounced elevated mixed layer should foster increasing MLCIN after dusk, suggesting that severe wind gust potential should wane Thursday night. ..Grams.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening on Thursday. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to central Great Lakes... Increasing concern exists for a potentially intense severe weather episode, centered on the late afternoon to early evening across parts of the Midwest. A highly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic space should exist for significant severe hail and wind threats with supercells likely growing upscale into southeast-moving clusters/MCSs. Spatial confidence is only about average for the D2 time frame, rendering moderate uncertainty on the swaths of greatest threat. For now, have upgraded to level 3-ENH risk across the most likely corridor and broadened lower probabilities with added sig severe highlights surrounding it from eastern KS to northwest IN. A fast upper-level jet streak will become centered across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, as a series of embedded shortwave impulses track along the international border into parts of ON/QC. A surface cyclone attendant to the leading impulse should move across eastern ON into QC. A cold front will trail to the southwest, likely centered on southern WI to the KS/NE border area at 21Z. A secondary thermal low should form over the central Great Plains portion of the front with hot temperatures from 100-105 F west of the dryline. A plume of large to extreme buoyancy should develop amid very steep mid-level lapse rates and a corridor of enhanced boundary-layer moisture ahead of the impinging front. Guidance does differ somewhat on the spatiotemporal aspects of convective development near the frontal zone by late Thursday afternoon. 12Z CAMs such as the HRRR are farther east-northeast with their centroid of development along the Mid-MS Valley, while the NSSL-ARW would suggest a centroid farther west over the Mid to Lower MO Valley. Low-level convergence along the front should be fairly similar across both regions, suggesting either corridor may sustain intense storm development. Strong speed shear above 700 mb amid west-northwest flow will support an elongated hodograph. This coupled with ample instability should yield initial splitting supercells capable of very large hail. Orientation of the shear vector semi to nearly paralleling the front should yield upscale growth by early evening, especially with western extent where effective bulk shear is relatively weaker. Given the big MLCAPE, potential for intense downdrafts will exist with significant severe wind gusts of 75-95 mph possible. One or two convective wind swaths may surge southeastward briefly through about dusk. The eastern lobe of the pronounced elevated mixed layer should foster increasing MLCIN after dusk, suggesting that severe wind gust potential should wane Thursday night. ..Grams.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening on Thursday. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to central Great Lakes... Increasing concern exists for a potentially intense severe weather episode, centered on the late afternoon to early evening across parts of the Midwest. A highly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic space should exist for significant severe hail and wind threats with supercells likely growing upscale into southeast-moving clusters/MCSs. Spatial confidence is only about average for the D2 time frame, rendering moderate uncertainty on the swaths of greatest threat. For now, have upgraded to level 3-ENH risk across the most likely corridor and broadened lower probabilities with added sig severe highlights surrounding it from eastern KS to northwest IN. A fast upper-level jet streak will become centered across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, as a series of embedded shortwave impulses track along the international border into parts of ON/QC. A surface cyclone attendant to the leading impulse should move across eastern ON into QC. A cold front will trail to the southwest, likely centered on southern WI to the KS/NE border area at 21Z. A secondary thermal low should form over the central Great Plains portion of the front with hot temperatures from 100-105 F west of the dryline. A plume of large to extreme buoyancy should develop amid very steep mid-level lapse rates and a corridor of enhanced boundary-layer moisture ahead of the impinging front. Guidance does differ somewhat on the spatiotemporal aspects of convective development near the frontal zone by late Thursday afternoon. 12Z CAMs such as the HRRR are farther east-northeast with their centroid of development along the Mid-MS Valley, while the NSSL-ARW would suggest a centroid farther west over the Mid to Lower MO Valley. Low-level convergence along the front should be fairly similar across both regions, suggesting either corridor may sustain intense storm development. Strong speed shear above 700 mb amid west-northwest flow will support an elongated hodograph. This coupled with ample instability should yield initial splitting supercells capable of very large hail. Orientation of the shear vector semi to nearly paralleling the front should yield upscale growth by early evening, especially with western extent where effective bulk shear is relatively weaker. Given the big MLCAPE, potential for intense downdrafts will exist with significant severe wind gusts of 75-95 mph possible. One or two convective wind swaths may surge southeastward briefly through about dusk. The eastern lobe of the pronounced elevated mixed layer should foster increasing MLCIN after dusk, suggesting that severe wind gust potential should wane Thursday night. ..Grams.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening on Thursday. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to central Great Lakes... Increasing concern exists for a potentially intense severe weather episode, centered on the late afternoon to early evening across parts of the Midwest. A highly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic space should exist for significant severe hail and wind threats with supercells likely growing upscale into southeast-moving clusters/MCSs. Spatial confidence is only about average for the D2 time frame, rendering moderate uncertainty on the swaths of greatest threat. For now, have upgraded to level 3-ENH risk across the most likely corridor and broadened lower probabilities with added sig severe highlights surrounding it from eastern KS to northwest IN. A fast upper-level jet streak will become centered across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, as a series of embedded shortwave impulses track along the international border into parts of ON/QC. A surface cyclone attendant to the leading impulse should move across eastern ON into QC. A cold front will trail to the southwest, likely centered on southern WI to the KS/NE border area at 21Z. A secondary thermal low should form over the central Great Plains portion of the front with hot temperatures from 100-105 F west of the dryline. A plume of large to extreme buoyancy should develop amid very steep mid-level lapse rates and a corridor of enhanced boundary-layer moisture ahead of the impinging front. Guidance does differ somewhat on the spatiotemporal aspects of convective development near the frontal zone by late Thursday afternoon. 12Z CAMs such as the HRRR are farther east-northeast with their centroid of development along the Mid-MS Valley, while the NSSL-ARW would suggest a centroid farther west over the Mid to Lower MO Valley. Low-level convergence along the front should be fairly similar across both regions, suggesting either corridor may sustain intense storm development. Strong speed shear above 700 mb amid west-northwest flow will support an elongated hodograph. This coupled with ample instability should yield initial splitting supercells capable of very large hail. Orientation of the shear vector semi to nearly paralleling the front should yield upscale growth by early evening, especially with western extent where effective bulk shear is relatively weaker. Given the big MLCAPE, potential for intense downdrafts will exist with significant severe wind gusts of 75-95 mph possible. One or two convective wind swaths may surge southeastward briefly through about dusk. The eastern lobe of the pronounced elevated mixed layer should foster increasing MLCIN after dusk, suggesting that severe wind gust potential should wane Thursday night. ..Grams.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening on Thursday. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to central Great Lakes... Increasing concern exists for a potentially intense severe weather episode, centered on the late afternoon to early evening across parts of the Midwest. A highly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic space should exist for significant severe hail and wind threats with supercells likely growing upscale into southeast-moving clusters/MCSs. Spatial confidence is only about average for the D2 time frame, rendering moderate uncertainty on the swaths of greatest threat. For now, have upgraded to level 3-ENH risk across the most likely corridor and broadened lower probabilities with added sig severe highlights surrounding it from eastern KS to northwest IN. A fast upper-level jet streak will become centered across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, as a series of embedded shortwave impulses track along the international border into parts of ON/QC. A surface cyclone attendant to the leading impulse should move across eastern ON into QC. A cold front will trail to the southwest, likely centered on southern WI to the KS/NE border area at 21Z. A secondary thermal low should form over the central Great Plains portion of the front with hot temperatures from 100-105 F west of the dryline. A plume of large to extreme buoyancy should develop amid very steep mid-level lapse rates and a corridor of enhanced boundary-layer moisture ahead of the impinging front. Guidance does differ somewhat on the spatiotemporal aspects of convective development near the frontal zone by late Thursday afternoon. 12Z CAMs such as the HRRR are farther east-northeast with their centroid of development along the Mid-MS Valley, while the NSSL-ARW would suggest a centroid farther west over the Mid to Lower MO Valley. Low-level convergence along the front should be fairly similar across both regions, suggesting either corridor may sustain intense storm development. Strong speed shear above 700 mb amid west-northwest flow will support an elongated hodograph. This coupled with ample instability should yield initial splitting supercells capable of very large hail. Orientation of the shear vector semi to nearly paralleling the front should yield upscale growth by early evening, especially with western extent where effective bulk shear is relatively weaker. Given the big MLCAPE, potential for intense downdrafts will exist with significant severe wind gusts of 75-95 mph possible. One or two convective wind swaths may surge southeastward briefly through about dusk. The eastern lobe of the pronounced elevated mixed layer should foster increasing MLCIN after dusk, suggesting that severe wind gust potential should wane Thursday night. ..Grams.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening on Thursday. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to central Great Lakes... Increasing concern exists for a potentially intense severe weather episode, centered on the late afternoon to early evening across parts of the Midwest. A highly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic space should exist for significant severe hail and wind threats with supercells likely growing upscale into southeast-moving clusters/MCSs. Spatial confidence is only about average for the D2 time frame, rendering moderate uncertainty on the swaths of greatest threat. For now, have upgraded to level 3-ENH risk across the most likely corridor and broadened lower probabilities with added sig severe highlights surrounding it from eastern KS to northwest IN. A fast upper-level jet streak will become centered across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, as a series of embedded shortwave impulses track along the international border into parts of ON/QC. A surface cyclone attendant to the leading impulse should move across eastern ON into QC. A cold front will trail to the southwest, likely centered on southern WI to the KS/NE border area at 21Z. A secondary thermal low should form over the central Great Plains portion of the front with hot temperatures from 100-105 F west of the dryline. A plume of large to extreme buoyancy should develop amid very steep mid-level lapse rates and a corridor of enhanced boundary-layer moisture ahead of the impinging front. Guidance does differ somewhat on the spatiotemporal aspects of convective development near the frontal zone by late Thursday afternoon. 12Z CAMs such as the HRRR are farther east-northeast with their centroid of development along the Mid-MS Valley, while the NSSL-ARW would suggest a centroid farther west over the Mid to Lower MO Valley. Low-level convergence along the front should be fairly similar across both regions, suggesting either corridor may sustain intense storm development. Strong speed shear above 700 mb amid west-northwest flow will support an elongated hodograph. This coupled with ample instability should yield initial splitting supercells capable of very large hail. Orientation of the shear vector semi to nearly paralleling the front should yield upscale growth by early evening, especially with western extent where effective bulk shear is relatively weaker. Given the big MLCAPE, potential for intense downdrafts will exist with significant severe wind gusts of 75-95 mph possible. One or two convective wind swaths may surge southeastward briefly through about dusk. The eastern lobe of the pronounced elevated mixed layer should foster increasing MLCIN after dusk, suggesting that severe wind gust potential should wane Thursday night. ..Grams.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening on Thursday. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to central Great Lakes... Increasing concern exists for a potentially intense severe weather episode, centered on the late afternoon to early evening across parts of the Midwest. A highly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic space should exist for significant severe hail and wind threats with supercells likely growing upscale into southeast-moving clusters/MCSs. Spatial confidence is only about average for the D2 time frame, rendering moderate uncertainty on the swaths of greatest threat. For now, have upgraded to level 3-ENH risk across the most likely corridor and broadened lower probabilities with added sig severe highlights surrounding it from eastern KS to northwest IN. A fast upper-level jet streak will become centered across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, as a series of embedded shortwave impulses track along the international border into parts of ON/QC. A surface cyclone attendant to the leading impulse should move across eastern ON into QC. A cold front will trail to the southwest, likely centered on southern WI to the KS/NE border area at 21Z. A secondary thermal low should form over the central Great Plains portion of the front with hot temperatures from 100-105 F west of the dryline. A plume of large to extreme buoyancy should develop amid very steep mid-level lapse rates and a corridor of enhanced boundary-layer moisture ahead of the impinging front. Guidance does differ somewhat on the spatiotemporal aspects of convective development near the frontal zone by late Thursday afternoon. 12Z CAMs such as the HRRR are farther east-northeast with their centroid of development along the Mid-MS Valley, while the NSSL-ARW would suggest a centroid farther west over the Mid to Lower MO Valley. Low-level convergence along the front should be fairly similar across both regions, suggesting either corridor may sustain intense storm development. Strong speed shear above 700 mb amid west-northwest flow will support an elongated hodograph. This coupled with ample instability should yield initial splitting supercells capable of very large hail. Orientation of the shear vector semi to nearly paralleling the front should yield upscale growth by early evening, especially with western extent where effective bulk shear is relatively weaker. Given the big MLCAPE, potential for intense downdrafts will exist with significant severe wind gusts of 75-95 mph possible. One or two convective wind swaths may surge southeastward briefly through about dusk. The eastern lobe of the pronounced elevated mixed layer should foster increasing MLCIN after dusk, suggesting that severe wind gust potential should wane Thursday night. ..Grams.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening on Thursday. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to central Great Lakes... Increasing concern exists for a potentially intense severe weather episode, centered on the late afternoon to early evening across parts of the Midwest. A highly favorable thermodynamic and kinematic space should exist for significant severe hail and wind threats with supercells likely growing upscale into southeast-moving clusters/MCSs. Spatial confidence is only about average for the D2 time frame, rendering moderate uncertainty on the swaths of greatest threat. For now, have upgraded to level 3-ENH risk across the most likely corridor and broadened lower probabilities with added sig severe highlights surrounding it from eastern KS to northwest IN. A fast upper-level jet streak will become centered across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, as a series of embedded shortwave impulses track along the international border into parts of ON/QC. A surface cyclone attendant to the leading impulse should move across eastern ON into QC. A cold front will trail to the southwest, likely centered on southern WI to the KS/NE border area at 21Z. A secondary thermal low should form over the central Great Plains portion of the front with hot temperatures from 100-105 F west of the dryline. A plume of large to extreme buoyancy should develop amid very steep mid-level lapse rates and a corridor of enhanced boundary-layer moisture ahead of the impinging front. Guidance does differ somewhat on the spatiotemporal aspects of convective development near the frontal zone by late Thursday afternoon. 12Z CAMs such as the HRRR are farther east-northeast with their centroid of development along the Mid-MS Valley, while the NSSL-ARW would suggest a centroid farther west over the Mid to Lower MO Valley. Low-level convergence along the front should be fairly similar across both regions, suggesting either corridor may sustain intense storm development. Strong speed shear above 700 mb amid west-northwest flow will support an elongated hodograph. This coupled with ample instability should yield initial splitting supercells capable of very large hail. Orientation of the shear vector semi to nearly paralleling the front should yield upscale growth by early evening, especially with western extent where effective bulk shear is relatively weaker. Given the big MLCAPE, potential for intense downdrafts will exist with significant severe wind gusts of 75-95 mph possible. One or two convective wind swaths may surge southeastward briefly through about dusk. The eastern lobe of the pronounced elevated mixed layer should foster increasing MLCIN after dusk, suggesting that severe wind gust potential should wane Thursday night. ..Grams.. 06/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC. ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM. These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist. Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC. ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM. These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist. Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC. ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM. These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist. Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC. ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM. These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist. Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC. ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM. These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist. Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC. ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM. These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist. Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC. ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM. These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist. Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC. ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM. These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist. Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC. ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM. These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist. Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1237 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 1237 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...South FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121509Z - 121715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible across south Florida for the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has revealed low-level rotation within some of the shallow, more cellular convection across southern FL, particularly near the intersection of Collier, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties. These showers and thunderstorms are being initiated by warm-air advection, but are quickly becoming surface based with the very moist and uncapped airmass across the region. Buoyancy is modest (i.e. around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE), promoted by shallow but vertically deep thermodynamic profiles. This buoyancy is more than sufficient for deep updrafts capable of lightning. Additionally, the AMX VAD profiles show notable low-level veering, with 20 to 25 kt of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity sampled recently. There may also be some ambient vertical vorticity within the low-level environment, given the presence of storm outflow and low-level convergence that is occurring, particularly to the south of the main precipitation shield. As result, there is likely a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential across from Mainland Monroe County northeastward into southern Palm Beach County. Water-loaded downbursts are also possible across much of south FL. ..Mosier/Goss.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... LAT...LON 25138100 25568138 25868172 26208222 26718212 27158120 27238021 26157992 24998038 25138100 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest late afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest... Bands/clusters of convection are ongoing at this time, from the Minnesota Arrowhead southward across northern Wisconsin, and southwestward across southern Minnesota into the Mid Missouri Valley region. This convection continues moving eastward, toward a less unstable airmass, which should temper severe risk over the next few hours. Greatest potential for a couple of marginally severe storms appears to exist over southwestern Minnesota and adjacent portions of southeastern South Dakota and northwestern Iowa, where the greatest instability resides. Greater severe risk is forecast to evolve later this afternoon, north of the ongoing storms. Here, daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front (associated with a low-amplitude short-wave trough embedded in fast westerly flow aloft, and moving eastward along the international border) will result in moderate to strong instability (2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) within the pre-frontal warm sector. Weakly veering but strengthening flow with height across the region will provide favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. Initial convection -- expected to initiate in the 12/20Z to 12/21Z time frame -- should quickly organize/become supercellular, with very large hail likely to be the initial/primary severe risk. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, though veered low-level flow should temper overall tornado risk. With time, storms are expected to cluster/grow upscale, with small-scale bowing expected, which should yield a gradual increase in damaging-wind potential. Storms will spread rather quickly eastward/southeastward with time, with some severe risk likely to linger through the evening before gradually diminishing overnight. ...South Florida... Widespread convection is ongoing across southern Florida, within a zone of low-level warm advection south of a weak cold front lying across central portions of the Peninsula. Modest lapse rates aloft, but a very moist/tropical boundary layer is resulting in deep CAPE, which will continue to support the widespread convection. While mid-level flow remains rather weak, flow veers/increases with height through the lower troposphere. This is providing ample shear for generally weak/transient updraft rotation. Given the associated potential for a brief tornado or two, low (2%) tornado probability/MRGL risk is being introduced across portions of South Florida. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #1237. ..Goss/Moore.. 06/12/2024 Read more