Severe Storms

WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0407 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1240 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1240 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...southern Wisconsin into far northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122151Z - 130015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A corridor of strong to locally damaging gusts may extend across the rest of southern Wisconsin, and perhaps into far northern Illinois. DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV is moving rapidly eastward across southwest WI, with periodically strong cores along the leading outflow. KOVS in southwest WI measured a 56 kt gust at 2107Z. Overall moisture and instability is weak. However, temperatures have warmed into the 90s F, with steep low-level lapse rates present. Visible imagery further shows Cu fields across IL, south of the cirrus to the north. Given southwesterly surface winds, sufficient warming may remain ahead of the MCV to support periodic upticks in intensity despite limited moisture. Strong gusts should continue to be the main threat, though a watch is not expected. ..Jewell.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43159020 42908776 42558767 42208790 42288834 42468964 42639032 42979045 43159020 Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FAR TO 40 ESE INL TO 30 NNW ELO TO 35 W AXN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-011-021-031-041-051-069-071-075-077-089-113-121-135-137- 149-153-155-159-130140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI BIG STONE CASS COOK DOUGLAS GRANT KITTSON KOOCHICHING LAKE LAKE OF THE WOODS MARSHALL PENNINGTON POPE ROSEAU ST. LOUIS STEVENS TODD TRAVERSE WADENA NDC067-099-130140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PEMBINA WALSH Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0406 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1243 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405... Valid 122331Z - 130030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405 continues. SUMMARY...A localized tornado threat is evolving over portions of central/eastern Minnesota. The area is being considered for a small tornado watch. DISCUSSION...Following several splitting supercells along a surface trough/wind shift over central/eastern MN, latest radar data shows dominant right-moving thunderstorms taking shape. This evolution is being aided by an increasingly large, clockwise-turning low-level hodograph (around 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per MPX VWP). Given this hodograph and favorable low-level moisture in place downstream of the intensifying storms, a localized tornado risk is possible for the next couple hours. The area is being considered for a small tornado watch. ..Weinman/Smith.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 46649407 47079295 47049249 46719207 46149253 45439387 45389472 45499529 45859514 46649407 Read more

MD 1242 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122317Z - 130145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated cells may produce locally damaging gusts and hail. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has led to an uncapped air mass near a surface trough extending from eastern NE into northwest KS. Visible imagery and radar indicate storms beginning to form near SUX, with additional towering Cu into NE along the boundary. Convergence near this boundary and the uncapped air mass where mid 90s F have been achieved may support isolated severe storms over the next 1-2 hours. This threat is likely to be short lived as capping eventually returns, however, moderate mid to high level northwesterlies will favor southeastward-moving cells capable of hail, and strong gusts cannot be ruled out given the hot and well-mixed boundary layer. ..Jewell/Smith.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40839691 41369688 41839685 42089671 42349646 42359624 41969573 41449554 40989559 40649570 40429604 40369670 40539680 40839691 Read more

MD 1241 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1241 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern and central Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405... Valid 122235Z - 130000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and locally damaging gusts are the main concerns across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405 for the next hour or so. Tornado and damaging-wind potential may gradually increase with time. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KDLH, KMVX, and KABR depict intense, semi-discrete splitting supercells evolving across portions of northern/central MN as of 2230Z. Several 1-1.5-inch hail reports have accompanied this activity. These storms are generally focused along/immediately ahead of a northeast/southwest-oriented surface trough/wind shift, with around 50-60 kt of effective shear oriented perpendicular to this zone of low-level mesoscale ascent. Given a long/mostly straight hodograph (sampled by DLH VWP data), a continuation of splitting semi-discrete supercells capable of very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and locally damaging gusts are the main concerns in the near-term. With time, these storms will continue east-southeastward into an area of larger low-level shear/hodograph curvature (see MPX 22Z sounding and VWP), which may favor an increasing tornado threat. In fact, one storm over far northeastern MN appears to be ingesting some of this streamwise vorticity and has recently developed an organized low-level mesocyclone. Convective trends will be monitored for the need for a targeted tornado watch southeast of the ongoing storms. ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 46199626 46799568 47109516 47839349 48059186 48029095 47729051 47269061 46819190 46189328 45359452 45369530 45599609 45909633 46199626 Read more

MD 1240 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1240 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...southern Wisconsin into far northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122151Z - 130015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A corridor of strong to locally damaging gusts may extend across the rest of southern Wisconsin, and perhaps into far northern Illinois. DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV is moving rapidly eastward across southwest WI, with periodically strong cores along the leading outflow. KOVS in southwest WI measured a 56 kt gust at 2107Z. Overall moisture and instability is weak. However, temperatures have warmed into the 90s F, with steep low-level lapse rates present. Visible imagery further shows Cu fields across IL, south of the cirrus to the north. Given southwesterly surface winds, sufficient warming may remain ahead of the MCV to support periodic upticks in intensity despite limited moisture. Strong gusts should continue to be the main threat, though a watch is not expected. ..Jewell.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43159020 42908776 42558767 42208790 42288834 42468964 42639032 42979045 43159020 Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0406 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 406 TORNADO MN WI 122355Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Minnesota Northwest Wisconsin * Effective this Wednesday evening from 655 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Several supercells will continue east-southeast and traverse a moist/unstable airmass in an environment with increasing low-level shear. Large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Saint Cloud MN to 100 miles east northeast of Saint Cloud MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 405... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 ..WEINMAN..06/12/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-009-011-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-051-057- 059-061-065-069-071-075-077-087-089-095-097-107-111-113-115-119- 121-125-135-137-141-145-149-153-155-159-167-122340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BENTON BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CHISAGO CLAY CLEARWATER COOK CROW WING DOUGLAS GRANT HUBBARD ISANTI ITASCA KANABEC KITTSON KOOCHICHING LAKE LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL MILLE LACS MORRISON NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON PINE POLK POPE RED LAKE ROSEAU ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN NDC017-035-067-077-097-099-122340- Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 ..WEINMAN..06/12/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-009-011-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-051-057- 059-061-065-069-071-075-077-087-089-095-097-107-111-113-115-119- 121-125-135-137-141-145-149-153-155-159-167-122340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BENTON BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CHISAGO CLAY CLEARWATER COOK CROW WING DOUGLAS GRANT HUBBARD ISANTI ITASCA KANABEC KITTSON KOOCHICHING LAKE LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL MILLE LACS MORRISON NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON PINE POLK POPE RED LAKE ROSEAU ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN NDC017-035-067-077-097-099-122340- Read more

WW 405 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD WI LS 122030Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of northern and central Minnesota eastern North Dakota far northeastern South Dakota northwestern Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by 4:30 PM or so across the eastern North Dakota/northwestern Minnesota area, with storms quickly becoming severe. Very large/destructive hail, and strong/damaging wind gusts are expected, with a tornado or two also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Fargo ND to 35 miles east of Duluth MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Goss Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more