Severe Storms

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT TO 15 ENE 3HT TO 80 SW GGW. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-037-065-069-071-087-103-111-290240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT TO 15 ENE 3HT TO 80 SW GGW. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-037-065-069-071-087-103-111-290240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT TO 15 ENE 3HT TO 80 SW GGW. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-037-065-069-071-087-103-111-290240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT TO 15 ENE 3HT TO 80 SW GGW. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-037-065-069-071-087-103-111-290240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT TO 15 ENE 3HT TO 80 SW GGW. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-037-065-069-071-087-103-111-290240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 551 SEVERE TSTM MT 281915Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Montana * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, including the potential for a few supercells. Large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible, while severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible with upscale growth into a cluster or two this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Helena MT to 75 miles east of Lewistown MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 550... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

MD 1826 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern South Dakota...Far Northern Nebraska...Western Minnesota...Far Northwest Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552... Valid 282249Z - 290045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours from much of central and eastern South Dakota southward into far northern Nebraska. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Severe weather watch issuance is expected early this evening to the east of the ongoing watch, as the severe threat moves eastward toward southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-res imagery from Sioux Falls, South Dakota shows three intense discrete supercells ongoing in south-central South Dakota. The storms are located to the west of a north-to-south moisture axis where surface dewpoints are in the lower 80s F. The low-level moisture is contributing to strong instability, with the RAP showing a pocket of MLCAPE in the 5000 to 6000 J/kg range. The storms are being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Dakotas. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is analyzed by the RAP over much of the northern Plains. The Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has a substantial amount of low-level directional shear, with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This will support continued supercell development. Tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will be likely with the more intense cells. Over the next several hours, convective coverage is expected to increase, as a gradual consolidation of convection occurs. In response, a fast-moving line of storms is expected to form by early to mid evening in eastern South Dakota, which will likely increase the wind-damage threat with bowing line segments along its leading edge. Wind gusts in the 80 to 100 mph will be possible. ..Broyles.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42549939 42650001 42860025 43190036 43750018 44559981 45359920 45969797 46099711 45989603 45499544 44589526 43999539 43309559 42659600 42359705 42549939 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N LVM TO 10 S LWT TO 30 NNW LWT TO 40 SSW HVR. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC015-027-033-037-045-065-069-071-107-290140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOUTEAU FERGUS GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS WHEATLAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more