Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the CONUS today, with mid-level moisture poised to pivot around the western extent of the ridge over portions of the northwestern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Here, high-based thunderstorms should develop atop a dry boundary layer, with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been issued given the presence of dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0555 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 555 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE DSM TO 35 ENE MCW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831. ..GRAMS..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 555 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-067-075- 083-089-095-097-099-103-105-107-113-127-131-157-171-183-191- 290740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD GRUNDY HARDIN HOWARD IOWA JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN MARSHALL MITCHELL POWESHIEK TAMA WASHINGTON WINNESHIEK WIC023-043-081-103-123-290740- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England, and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear likely, greater probabilities may be needed. ...Midwest... Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northeast... Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail. Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England, and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear likely, greater probabilities may be needed. ...Midwest... Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northeast... Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail. Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England, and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear likely, greater probabilities may be needed. ...Midwest... Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northeast... Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail. Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England, and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear likely, greater probabilities may be needed. ...Midwest... Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northeast... Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail. Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England, and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear likely, greater probabilities may be needed. ...Midwest... Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northeast... Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail. Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England, and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear likely, greater probabilities may be needed. ...Midwest... Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northeast... Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail. Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England, and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear likely, greater probabilities may be needed. ...Midwest... Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northeast... Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail. Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England, and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear likely, greater probabilities may be needed. ...Midwest... Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time. ...Northeast... Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail. Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating will be the primary threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...NEBRASKA...AND INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...Much of NE into IA... A cold front is likely to extend from northeast Co into northern NE and IA during the afternoon, while low pressure develops over western KS. Winds aloft will be relatively weak at these latitudes, only averaging near 15-20 kt. Winds below 500 mb will also be relatively weak, except for within the deeply mixed boundary layer with gusty south winds. Indications are that thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon across eastern CO and western NE, with increasing coverage and vigor near the stalled front across NE and into northern IA. Models indicate numerous storms during the evening, with a general eastward propagation. Given such weak winds below 500 mb, it appears widespread and potentially shorter lived convection will be possible. However, an eventual aggregation into an MCS is expected, which could yield greater overall coverage of strong to severe gusts. Isolated significant gusts cannot be ruled out as storms move into the strongly heated air mass/deeply mixed boundary layer. ...MT into WY... High pressure will exist over southern Canada with northeast surface winds across much of the northern Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F will remain with in this air mass from eastern MT into WY, and daytime heating will yield MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft will exist in the mid and upper levels, along with 20-30 kt westerlies. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the late afternoon, aided by upslope flow. Given the backed low-level wind fields, sufficient shear will favor large hail, perhaps into the 1.75 to 2.00" range in the strongest cells. Locally damaging gusts will also be likely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...NEBRASKA...AND INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...Much of NE into IA... A cold front is likely to extend from northeast Co into northern NE and IA during the afternoon, while low pressure develops over western KS. Winds aloft will be relatively weak at these latitudes, only averaging near 15-20 kt. Winds below 500 mb will also be relatively weak, except for within the deeply mixed boundary layer with gusty south winds. Indications are that thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon across eastern CO and western NE, with increasing coverage and vigor near the stalled front across NE and into northern IA. Models indicate numerous storms during the evening, with a general eastward propagation. Given such weak winds below 500 mb, it appears widespread and potentially shorter lived convection will be possible. However, an eventual aggregation into an MCS is expected, which could yield greater overall coverage of strong to severe gusts. Isolated significant gusts cannot be ruled out as storms move into the strongly heated air mass/deeply mixed boundary layer. ...MT into WY... High pressure will exist over southern Canada with northeast surface winds across much of the northern Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F will remain with in this air mass from eastern MT into WY, and daytime heating will yield MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft will exist in the mid and upper levels, along with 20-30 kt westerlies. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the late afternoon, aided by upslope flow. Given the backed low-level wind fields, sufficient shear will favor large hail, perhaps into the 1.75 to 2.00" range in the strongest cells. Locally damaging gusts will also be likely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...NEBRASKA...AND INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...Much of NE into IA... A cold front is likely to extend from northeast Co into northern NE and IA during the afternoon, while low pressure develops over western KS. Winds aloft will be relatively weak at these latitudes, only averaging near 15-20 kt. Winds below 500 mb will also be relatively weak, except for within the deeply mixed boundary layer with gusty south winds. Indications are that thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon across eastern CO and western NE, with increasing coverage and vigor near the stalled front across NE and into northern IA. Models indicate numerous storms during the evening, with a general eastward propagation. Given such weak winds below 500 mb, it appears widespread and potentially shorter lived convection will be possible. However, an eventual aggregation into an MCS is expected, which could yield greater overall coverage of strong to severe gusts. Isolated significant gusts cannot be ruled out as storms move into the strongly heated air mass/deeply mixed boundary layer. ...MT into WY... High pressure will exist over southern Canada with northeast surface winds across much of the northern Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F will remain with in this air mass from eastern MT into WY, and daytime heating will yield MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft will exist in the mid and upper levels, along with 20-30 kt westerlies. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the late afternoon, aided by upslope flow. Given the backed low-level wind fields, sufficient shear will favor large hail, perhaps into the 1.75 to 2.00" range in the strongest cells. Locally damaging gusts will also be likely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...NEBRASKA...AND INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...Much of NE into IA... A cold front is likely to extend from northeast Co into northern NE and IA during the afternoon, while low pressure develops over western KS. Winds aloft will be relatively weak at these latitudes, only averaging near 15-20 kt. Winds below 500 mb will also be relatively weak, except for within the deeply mixed boundary layer with gusty south winds. Indications are that thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon across eastern CO and western NE, with increasing coverage and vigor near the stalled front across NE and into northern IA. Models indicate numerous storms during the evening, with a general eastward propagation. Given such weak winds below 500 mb, it appears widespread and potentially shorter lived convection will be possible. However, an eventual aggregation into an MCS is expected, which could yield greater overall coverage of strong to severe gusts. Isolated significant gusts cannot be ruled out as storms move into the strongly heated air mass/deeply mixed boundary layer. ...MT into WY... High pressure will exist over southern Canada with northeast surface winds across much of the northern Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F will remain with in this air mass from eastern MT into WY, and daytime heating will yield MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft will exist in the mid and upper levels, along with 20-30 kt westerlies. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the late afternoon, aided by upslope flow. Given the backed low-level wind fields, sufficient shear will favor large hail, perhaps into the 1.75 to 2.00" range in the strongest cells. Locally damaging gusts will also be likely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...NEBRASKA...AND INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...Much of NE into IA... A cold front is likely to extend from northeast Co into northern NE and IA during the afternoon, while low pressure develops over western KS. Winds aloft will be relatively weak at these latitudes, only averaging near 15-20 kt. Winds below 500 mb will also be relatively weak, except for within the deeply mixed boundary layer with gusty south winds. Indications are that thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon across eastern CO and western NE, with increasing coverage and vigor near the stalled front across NE and into northern IA. Models indicate numerous storms during the evening, with a general eastward propagation. Given such weak winds below 500 mb, it appears widespread and potentially shorter lived convection will be possible. However, an eventual aggregation into an MCS is expected, which could yield greater overall coverage of strong to severe gusts. Isolated significant gusts cannot be ruled out as storms move into the strongly heated air mass/deeply mixed boundary layer. ...MT into WY... High pressure will exist over southern Canada with northeast surface winds across much of the northern Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F will remain with in this air mass from eastern MT into WY, and daytime heating will yield MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft will exist in the mid and upper levels, along with 20-30 kt westerlies. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the late afternoon, aided by upslope flow. Given the backed low-level wind fields, sufficient shear will favor large hail, perhaps into the 1.75 to 2.00" range in the strongest cells. Locally damaging gusts will also be likely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...NEBRASKA...AND INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...Much of NE into IA... A cold front is likely to extend from northeast Co into northern NE and IA during the afternoon, while low pressure develops over western KS. Winds aloft will be relatively weak at these latitudes, only averaging near 15-20 kt. Winds below 500 mb will also be relatively weak, except for within the deeply mixed boundary layer with gusty south winds. Indications are that thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon across eastern CO and western NE, with increasing coverage and vigor near the stalled front across NE and into northern IA. Models indicate numerous storms during the evening, with a general eastward propagation. Given such weak winds below 500 mb, it appears widespread and potentially shorter lived convection will be possible. However, an eventual aggregation into an MCS is expected, which could yield greater overall coverage of strong to severe gusts. Isolated significant gusts cannot be ruled out as storms move into the strongly heated air mass/deeply mixed boundary layer. ...MT into WY... High pressure will exist over southern Canada with northeast surface winds across much of the northern Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F will remain with in this air mass from eastern MT into WY, and daytime heating will yield MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft will exist in the mid and upper levels, along with 20-30 kt westerlies. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the late afternoon, aided by upslope flow. Given the backed low-level wind fields, sufficient shear will favor large hail, perhaps into the 1.75 to 2.00" range in the strongest cells. Locally damaging gusts will also be likely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...NEBRASKA...AND INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...Much of NE into IA... A cold front is likely to extend from northeast Co into northern NE and IA during the afternoon, while low pressure develops over western KS. Winds aloft will be relatively weak at these latitudes, only averaging near 15-20 kt. Winds below 500 mb will also be relatively weak, except for within the deeply mixed boundary layer with gusty south winds. Indications are that thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon across eastern CO and western NE, with increasing coverage and vigor near the stalled front across NE and into northern IA. Models indicate numerous storms during the evening, with a general eastward propagation. Given such weak winds below 500 mb, it appears widespread and potentially shorter lived convection will be possible. However, an eventual aggregation into an MCS is expected, which could yield greater overall coverage of strong to severe gusts. Isolated significant gusts cannot be ruled out as storms move into the strongly heated air mass/deeply mixed boundary layer. ...MT into WY... High pressure will exist over southern Canada with northeast surface winds across much of the northern Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F will remain with in this air mass from eastern MT into WY, and daytime heating will yield MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft will exist in the mid and upper levels, along with 20-30 kt westerlies. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the late afternoon, aided by upslope flow. Given the backed low-level wind fields, sufficient shear will favor large hail, perhaps into the 1.75 to 2.00" range in the strongest cells. Locally damaging gusts will also be likely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...NEBRASKA...AND INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa. Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over western areas. ...Much of NE into IA... A cold front is likely to extend from northeast Co into northern NE and IA during the afternoon, while low pressure develops over western KS. Winds aloft will be relatively weak at these latitudes, only averaging near 15-20 kt. Winds below 500 mb will also be relatively weak, except for within the deeply mixed boundary layer with gusty south winds. Indications are that thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon across eastern CO and western NE, with increasing coverage and vigor near the stalled front across NE and into northern IA. Models indicate numerous storms during the evening, with a general eastward propagation. Given such weak winds below 500 mb, it appears widespread and potentially shorter lived convection will be possible. However, an eventual aggregation into an MCS is expected, which could yield greater overall coverage of strong to severe gusts. Isolated significant gusts cannot be ruled out as storms move into the strongly heated air mass/deeply mixed boundary layer. ...MT into WY... High pressure will exist over southern Canada with northeast surface winds across much of the northern Plains. Dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F will remain with in this air mass from eastern MT into WY, and daytime heating will yield MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft will exist in the mid and upper levels, along with 20-30 kt westerlies. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the late afternoon, aided by upslope flow. Given the backed low-level wind fields, sufficient shear will favor large hail, perhaps into the 1.75 to 2.00" range in the strongest cells. Locally damaging gusts will also be likely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 07/29/2025 Read more

MD 1830 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553...555... FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...Far Northeast Iowa...Western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...555... Valid 290344Z - 290545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553, 555 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible over the next few hours across parts of southeast Minnesota, far northeast Iowa and western Wisconsin. Although a severe threat will likely persist, the threat should be too isolated to the east of the ongoing watches for new watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Minneapolis, Minnesota shows a well-developed severe line segment from western Wisconsin into southeast Minnesota. This line is located along the northeastern edge of a moderately unstable airmass, where MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s F. An isolated wind-damage threat may be maintained with the stronger segments within the line, as it tracks south-southeastward along the instability gradient over the next couple of hours. The latest RAP shows weaker instability present over far northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, suggesting that the line should gradually weaken as it moves further southeast. ..Broyles.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 43149024 43679019 44319048 44789089 45239150 45319201 45049274 44639296 44069240 43229170 42779114 42829063 43149024 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1828 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553...554... FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1828 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...Far Southeast South Dakota...Far Northeast Nebraska...Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...554... Valid 290239Z - 290445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553, 554 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. Gusts over 85 mph will be possible. Weather watch issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an MCS from south-central Minnesota extending southwestward into far northwest Iowa. The strongest part of the MCS is located between Sioux Falls and Sioux City, where indications suggest that a cold pool is starting to organize. From this part of the MCS, a bowing line segment is expected to continue forming, moving southeastward along a sharp gradient of strong instability. This severe line segment should affect parts of northwest and central Iowa over the next few hours. Along the track of this severe linear MCS, widespread damaging wind gusts may occur, with the strongest wind gusts near the apex of the bowing line segment. Significant wind gusts will be likely. ..Broyles.. 07/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 44039219 44299352 44289496 43909652 43229708 42659717 42299655 41649470 41349367 41369279 41989222 43169187 44039219 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more