Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Texas tonight in association with Tropical Storm Alberto. Otherwise, scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible over the New Mexico region. ...01z Update... Tropical Storm Alberto is propagating slowly west toward the Mexican Coast, and the center of circulation is forecast to track inland later tonight about 22N, or around 250 miles south of Brownsville TX. Widespread convection is rotating inland across coastal South TX, and low-level shear is forecast to increase through the evening hours. 00z sounding from BRO exhibited surface-3km SRH around 230 m2/s2, and this should strengthen as 850mb flow intensifies along the north side of the cyclone. Tornado threat should gradually increase with inland-moving supercells. Farther northwest, scattered strong/severe slow-moving thunderstorms are propagating north across south-central NM. Another small cluster of storms is drifting northeast off the higher terrain to the east of ABQ. Gusty winds and some hail threat linger with this activity until the boundary layer cools later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across south Texas tonight in association with Tropical Storm Alberto. Otherwise, scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible over the New Mexico region. ...01z Update... Tropical Storm Alberto is propagating slowly west toward the Mexican Coast, and the center of circulation is forecast to track inland later tonight about 22N, or around 250 miles south of Brownsville TX. Widespread convection is rotating inland across coastal South TX, and low-level shear is forecast to increase through the evening hours. 00z sounding from BRO exhibited surface-3km SRH around 230 m2/s2, and this should strengthen as 850mb flow intensifies along the north side of the cyclone. Tornado threat should gradually increase with inland-moving supercells. Farther northwest, scattered strong/severe slow-moving thunderstorms are propagating north across south-central NM. Another small cluster of storms is drifting northeast off the higher terrain to the east of ABQ. Gusty winds and some hail threat linger with this activity until the boundary layer cools later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/20/2024 Read more

MD 1336 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR LOWER/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1336 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...Lower/middle Texas Coast and deep south Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 192357Z - 200100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado risk to increase through the evening as outer bands of Tropical Storm Alberto move inland across the lower/middle Texas Coast. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown supercells developing in a band of convection just off the middle Texas Coast northeast Corpus Christi. At least transient rotation and supercell structures are expected to increase as low-level shear strengthens through the evening. Forecast soundings show greater low-level shear and curvature in hodographs after 00z across much of the area across south Texas and inland to the Rio Grande Valley. This will lead to an increase in embedded supercells within bands of deeper convection and potential risk for tornadoes. Isolated supercells also may develop over the Gulf and move ashore south of the primary band(s). A watch is likely to be needed in the next hour. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28629549 28739561 28969621 29039673 28949768 28759863 28419914 27769953 27389952 26749921 26459893 26229864 26099836 26019762 25879747 25929714 27049705 27499693 27969664 28259624 28449560 28629549 Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 4CR TO 40 N LVS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337 ..THORNTON..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-027-035-047-200140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE LINCOLN OTERO SAN MIGUEL TXC141-229-200140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0437 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 19 23:30:10 UTC 2024.

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-027-028-035-043-047-049-057-200040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE LINCOLN LOS ALAMOS OTERO SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE TORRANCE TXC141-229-200040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 436 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 192055Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and South-Central New Mexico Far West Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening over the Watch area. A few supercells and stronger multicells will potentially be capable of a risk for large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60 to 70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Santa Fe NM to 120 miles south southeast of Alamogordo NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-027-028-035-043-047-049-057-192340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE LINCOLN LOS ALAMOS OTERO SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE TORRANCE TXC141-229-192340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1335 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...portions of the middle to upper Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192058Z - 192230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may be capable of occasional damaging gusts this afternoon/evening. Limited potential for storm organization should keep the risk isolated. DISCUSSION...Across parts of the upper MS Valley, afternoon radar imagery shows scattered thunderstorms have developed near a slow-moving cold front stretching from southern WI to northern MO. Over the past hour, a few of these storms have intensified with a noted increase in lightning. Strong diurnal heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F ahead of the front have resulted in 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. While buoyancy will likely support additional storm development and occasional vigorous updrafts, vertical bulk shear is rather weak with area VADs sampling generally less than 20 kt. This, along with much of the stronger convection being confined near and behind the front suggests that storm organization will likely be limited. Steep low-level lapse rates in the lowest 2km may support occasional stronger downdrafts, especially with any more persistent storm clusters. The risk for isolated damaging gusts will likely continue into this evening as storm coverage slowly increases. However, the limited potential for storm organization suggests a weather watch is unlikely. ..Lyons.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 42048810 41888844 40219125 39249301 39489361 39829379 39929367 40539262 40929178 41649096 42968974 43768886 44038836 43968808 43768786 43348774 42778769 42048810 Read more

WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 436 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC019-027-028-035-043-047-049-057-192240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GUADALUPE LINCOLN LOS ALAMOS OTERO SANDOVAL SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE TORRANCE TXC141-229-192240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EL PASO HUDSPETH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1334 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM
Mesoscale Discussion 1334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...east-central NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191942Z - 192145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few drifting cells may congeal into a slow-moving cluster, centered on east-central New Mexico, through early evening. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Convective development has increased this hour near a residual outflow boundary and along on the higher terrain from the Sacramento Mountains northward. Adequate veering of the low-level wind profile with height from low-level east-southeasterlies turning to mid-level southwesterlies (as sampled by the FDX VWP) may support transient supercell structures. This would seemingly be most favored near the large-scale outflow boundary, but convection in this corridor has already shown a tendency to cluster quickly. While a more longer-lasting supercell could develop, the predominant expectation is for transient organization and slow-moving clustering into early evening. Isolated large hail from 1-1.75 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts from 55-70 mph appear possible. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34730623 35290521 35560439 35460364 34970320 33710330 33130455 32750525 32960567 33950610 34640624 34730623 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridge will build over the Southwest US late this week into this weekend. Expansive thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southwest Friday and Saturday due to remnant moisture from the westward-moving Tropical Storm Alberto off the TX/Mexico coast this afternoon. Through time, thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated into early next week. No IsoDryT probabilities have been added, as the robust nature of the moisture push should result in mostly wet thunderstorms. The threat for dry and windy conditions is expected to increase early next week, as an upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is expected to cross the Cascades with dry and breezy westerly flow in its wake. A mix of dry/cured and green fuels are present on the eastern Cascade foothills and the Columbia Basin. These marginally dry fuels are the primary precluding factor to greater Critical probabilities. However, some large-fire threat is expected, especially if a fire can begin/establish in the drier fuels. In addition to the Columbia Basin, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the dry and well-mixed airmass. Beyond this weekend, the ridge is expected to maintain across the Southwest with building heat and drying fuels. The pattern will remain favorable for shortwave trough passages through the Northwest, which will be monitored for increased fire weather potential. ..Bentley.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more