Severe Storms

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD TO 15 N ALI TO 50 ESE CRP. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-427-479-489-505-200940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-250-200940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S COT TO 10 SSE NIR TO 35 S PSX. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-409-427-479-489-505- 200840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-232-250-255-200840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will largely remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the desert southwest, keeping winds generally light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow. Continued widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across much of New Mexico and Arizona as remnant tropical moisture continues to be in place, with precipitable water generally 0.75-1.00 in and slow storm motions. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will largely remain low on Friday. High pressure will continue to build in across the desert southwest, keeping winds generally light outside of gusty thunderstorm outflow. Continued widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across much of New Mexico and Arizona as remnant tropical moisture continues to be in place, with precipitable water generally 0.75-1.00 in and slow storm motions. ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more