Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Dry conditions are noted across the northern Great Basin in morning surface observations with winds already increasing to around 20 mph through the Snake River Plain along and ahead of a passing cold front. Further south into NV and northwest UT, winds should begin to increase around 18-20 UTC as stronger flow above the nocturnal inversion (sampled in morning soundings and recent VWP observations) mixes to the surface. These trends are aligned well with the previous forecast outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the northern High Plains. A cold front will push into the Great Basin from the northwest. ...Northern Nevada into Snake River Plain... Winds ahead of and behind the surface boundary will intensify by the afternoon. RH during the afternoon is less than certain as there is some possibility of some higher-level cloud cover ahead of the trough as well as cumulus buildups within the terrain areas. However, it seems reasonable to expect 15-20% for most areas. Winds through the Snake Plain are likely to be stronger given the proximity to the mid-level jet. There, 20-25 mph will be possible. Into Nevada, 15-20 mph is more likely. With rainfall having occurred across central portions of Nevada, the elevated area has been adjusted to account for temporary fuel moistening. Within the Snake Plain, fuels are not yet critically dry and will not support an addition of critical highlights despite favorable meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Dry conditions are noted across the northern Great Basin in morning surface observations with winds already increasing to around 20 mph through the Snake River Plain along and ahead of a passing cold front. Further south into NV and northwest UT, winds should begin to increase around 18-20 UTC as stronger flow above the nocturnal inversion (sampled in morning soundings and recent VWP observations) mixes to the surface. These trends are aligned well with the previous forecast outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the northern High Plains. A cold front will push into the Great Basin from the northwest. ...Northern Nevada into Snake River Plain... Winds ahead of and behind the surface boundary will intensify by the afternoon. RH during the afternoon is less than certain as there is some possibility of some higher-level cloud cover ahead of the trough as well as cumulus buildups within the terrain areas. However, it seems reasonable to expect 15-20% for most areas. Winds through the Snake Plain are likely to be stronger given the proximity to the mid-level jet. There, 20-25 mph will be possible. Into Nevada, 15-20 mph is more likely. With rainfall having occurred across central portions of Nevada, the elevated area has been adjusted to account for temporary fuel moistening. Within the Snake Plain, fuels are not yet critically dry and will not support an addition of critical highlights despite favorable meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Dry conditions are noted across the northern Great Basin in morning surface observations with winds already increasing to around 20 mph through the Snake River Plain along and ahead of a passing cold front. Further south into NV and northwest UT, winds should begin to increase around 18-20 UTC as stronger flow above the nocturnal inversion (sampled in morning soundings and recent VWP observations) mixes to the surface. These trends are aligned well with the previous forecast outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the northern High Plains. A cold front will push into the Great Basin from the northwest. ...Northern Nevada into Snake River Plain... Winds ahead of and behind the surface boundary will intensify by the afternoon. RH during the afternoon is less than certain as there is some possibility of some higher-level cloud cover ahead of the trough as well as cumulus buildups within the terrain areas. However, it seems reasonable to expect 15-20% for most areas. Winds through the Snake Plain are likely to be stronger given the proximity to the mid-level jet. There, 20-25 mph will be possible. Into Nevada, 15-20 mph is more likely. With rainfall having occurred across central portions of Nevada, the elevated area has been adjusted to account for temporary fuel moistening. Within the Snake Plain, fuels are not yet critically dry and will not support an addition of critical highlights despite favorable meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Dry conditions are noted across the northern Great Basin in morning surface observations with winds already increasing to around 20 mph through the Snake River Plain along and ahead of a passing cold front. Further south into NV and northwest UT, winds should begin to increase around 18-20 UTC as stronger flow above the nocturnal inversion (sampled in morning soundings and recent VWP observations) mixes to the surface. These trends are aligned well with the previous forecast outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the northern High Plains. A cold front will push into the Great Basin from the northwest. ...Northern Nevada into Snake River Plain... Winds ahead of and behind the surface boundary will intensify by the afternoon. RH during the afternoon is less than certain as there is some possibility of some higher-level cloud cover ahead of the trough as well as cumulus buildups within the terrain areas. However, it seems reasonable to expect 15-20% for most areas. Winds through the Snake Plain are likely to be stronger given the proximity to the mid-level jet. There, 20-25 mph will be possible. Into Nevada, 15-20 mph is more likely. With rainfall having occurred across central portions of Nevada, the elevated area has been adjusted to account for temporary fuel moistening. Within the Snake Plain, fuels are not yet critically dry and will not support an addition of critical highlights despite favorable meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Dry conditions are noted across the northern Great Basin in morning surface observations with winds already increasing to around 20 mph through the Snake River Plain along and ahead of a passing cold front. Further south into NV and northwest UT, winds should begin to increase around 18-20 UTC as stronger flow above the nocturnal inversion (sampled in morning soundings and recent VWP observations) mixes to the surface. These trends are aligned well with the previous forecast outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the northern High Plains. A cold front will push into the Great Basin from the northwest. ...Northern Nevada into Snake River Plain... Winds ahead of and behind the surface boundary will intensify by the afternoon. RH during the afternoon is less than certain as there is some possibility of some higher-level cloud cover ahead of the trough as well as cumulus buildups within the terrain areas. However, it seems reasonable to expect 15-20% for most areas. Winds through the Snake Plain are likely to be stronger given the proximity to the mid-level jet. There, 20-25 mph will be possible. Into Nevada, 15-20 mph is more likely. With rainfall having occurred across central portions of Nevada, the elevated area has been adjusted to account for temporary fuel moistening. Within the Snake Plain, fuels are not yet critically dry and will not support an addition of critical highlights despite favorable meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Dry conditions are noted across the northern Great Basin in morning surface observations with winds already increasing to around 20 mph through the Snake River Plain along and ahead of a passing cold front. Further south into NV and northwest UT, winds should begin to increase around 18-20 UTC as stronger flow above the nocturnal inversion (sampled in morning soundings and recent VWP observations) mixes to the surface. These trends are aligned well with the previous forecast outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the northern High Plains. A cold front will push into the Great Basin from the northwest. ...Northern Nevada into Snake River Plain... Winds ahead of and behind the surface boundary will intensify by the afternoon. RH during the afternoon is less than certain as there is some possibility of some higher-level cloud cover ahead of the trough as well as cumulus buildups within the terrain areas. However, it seems reasonable to expect 15-20% for most areas. Winds through the Snake Plain are likely to be stronger given the proximity to the mid-level jet. There, 20-25 mph will be possible. Into Nevada, 15-20 mph is more likely. With rainfall having occurred across central portions of Nevada, the elevated area has been adjusted to account for temporary fuel moistening. Within the Snake Plain, fuels are not yet critically dry and will not support an addition of critical highlights despite favorable meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Dry conditions are noted across the northern Great Basin in morning surface observations with winds already increasing to around 20 mph through the Snake River Plain along and ahead of a passing cold front. Further south into NV and northwest UT, winds should begin to increase around 18-20 UTC as stronger flow above the nocturnal inversion (sampled in morning soundings and recent VWP observations) mixes to the surface. These trends are aligned well with the previous forecast outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the northern High Plains. A cold front will push into the Great Basin from the northwest. ...Northern Nevada into Snake River Plain... Winds ahead of and behind the surface boundary will intensify by the afternoon. RH during the afternoon is less than certain as there is some possibility of some higher-level cloud cover ahead of the trough as well as cumulus buildups within the terrain areas. However, it seems reasonable to expect 15-20% for most areas. Winds through the Snake Plain are likely to be stronger given the proximity to the mid-level jet. There, 20-25 mph will be possible. Into Nevada, 15-20 mph is more likely. With rainfall having occurred across central portions of Nevada, the elevated area has been adjusted to account for temporary fuel moistening. Within the Snake Plain, fuels are not yet critically dry and will not support an addition of critical highlights despite favorable meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Dry conditions are noted across the northern Great Basin in morning surface observations with winds already increasing to around 20 mph through the Snake River Plain along and ahead of a passing cold front. Further south into NV and northwest UT, winds should begin to increase around 18-20 UTC as stronger flow above the nocturnal inversion (sampled in morning soundings and recent VWP observations) mixes to the surface. These trends are aligned well with the previous forecast outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the northern High Plains. A cold front will push into the Great Basin from the northwest. ...Northern Nevada into Snake River Plain... Winds ahead of and behind the surface boundary will intensify by the afternoon. RH during the afternoon is less than certain as there is some possibility of some higher-level cloud cover ahead of the trough as well as cumulus buildups within the terrain areas. However, it seems reasonable to expect 15-20% for most areas. Winds through the Snake Plain are likely to be stronger given the proximity to the mid-level jet. There, 20-25 mph will be possible. Into Nevada, 15-20 mph is more likely. With rainfall having occurred across central portions of Nevada, the elevated area has been adjusted to account for temporary fuel moistening. Within the Snake Plain, fuels are not yet critically dry and will not support an addition of critical highlights despite favorable meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Dry conditions are noted across the northern Great Basin in morning surface observations with winds already increasing to around 20 mph through the Snake River Plain along and ahead of a passing cold front. Further south into NV and northwest UT, winds should begin to increase around 18-20 UTC as stronger flow above the nocturnal inversion (sampled in morning soundings and recent VWP observations) mixes to the surface. These trends are aligned well with the previous forecast outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the northern High Plains. A cold front will push into the Great Basin from the northwest. ...Northern Nevada into Snake River Plain... Winds ahead of and behind the surface boundary will intensify by the afternoon. RH during the afternoon is less than certain as there is some possibility of some higher-level cloud cover ahead of the trough as well as cumulus buildups within the terrain areas. However, it seems reasonable to expect 15-20% for most areas. Winds through the Snake Plain are likely to be stronger given the proximity to the mid-level jet. There, 20-25 mph will be possible. Into Nevada, 15-20 mph is more likely. With rainfall having occurred across central portions of Nevada, the elevated area has been adjusted to account for temporary fuel moistening. Within the Snake Plain, fuels are not yet critically dry and will not support an addition of critical highlights despite favorable meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Dry conditions are noted across the northern Great Basin in morning surface observations with winds already increasing to around 20 mph through the Snake River Plain along and ahead of a passing cold front. Further south into NV and northwest UT, winds should begin to increase around 18-20 UTC as stronger flow above the nocturnal inversion (sampled in morning soundings and recent VWP observations) mixes to the surface. These trends are aligned well with the previous forecast outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the Northwest and into the northern Rockies today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the northern High Plains. A cold front will push into the Great Basin from the northwest. ...Northern Nevada into Snake River Plain... Winds ahead of and behind the surface boundary will intensify by the afternoon. RH during the afternoon is less than certain as there is some possibility of some higher-level cloud cover ahead of the trough as well as cumulus buildups within the terrain areas. However, it seems reasonable to expect 15-20% for most areas. Winds through the Snake Plain are likely to be stronger given the proximity to the mid-level jet. There, 20-25 mph will be possible. Into Nevada, 15-20 mph is more likely. With rainfall having occurred across central portions of Nevada, the elevated area has been adjusted to account for temporary fuel moistening. Within the Snake Plain, fuels are not yet critically dry and will not support an addition of critical highlights despite favorable meteorological conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more