Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the extended period, though some fire weather concerns are anticipated over the upcoming weekend across the Great Basin as an upper trough (recently noted over the northeast Pacific in water-vapor imagery) approaches the West Coast. Heading into next week, upper-level ridging is anticipated over the West, which may lead to a period of relatively weak winds, but warm/dry conditions favorable for curing fuels. Elsewhere across the CONUS, recent rainfall and/or precipitation chances should limit critical fire weather potential. ...D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday - Great Basin... Surface pressure falls are anticipated across central NV on D3/Sat afternoon ahead of the approaching upper trough. Increasing southerly flow emanating out of the Mojave desert should advect dry air northward into eastern NV into western UT and support areas of dry/windy conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions, but most solutions suggest winds approaching 15 mph are likely with RH in the teens. This dry air mass will continue to spread northeast into northern UT and southwest WY by D4/Sun afternoon. A consolidating cyclone in the northern High Plains should bolster gradient winds across eastern NV into UT and WY ahead of an approaching cold front. The anticipation of a deepening cyclone, combined with at least one preceding day of warm/dry weather, lends higher confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions for Sunday afternoon. However, much of the risk area has recently received rainfall and/or may see rainfall over the next 24 hours. As such, fuel dryness may be modulated to some degree. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities, but rainfall and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. Beyond D4/Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions may emerge each day across the northern Great Basin as a zonal flow regime becomes established. However, confidence in critical conditions is too limited for additional risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1444 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1444 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into northeast South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271714Z - 271945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms will likely erupt along the length of a surface trough after about 18Z, with isolated severe gusts possible. DISCUSSION...A front currently extends from northeast NC into northern SD, with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints to the south and toward the coast. Visible satellite imagery show ample heating occurring, which will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and strong instability. Modified morning soundings indicate tall CAPE profiles with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, along with PWAT around 2 IN. Given the focused area for developing and favorable diurnal timing, a isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out with occasional wet microbursts. While shear is weak, sufficient westerlies aloft suggest storm that form inland will push across coastal areas later this afternoon, possibly remaining strong. ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... LAT...LON 33377879 33257934 33387972 33788011 34288019 34558002 34697940 35177809 35887656 36267569 35787536 35217546 34577645 33807796 33377879 Read more

WW 0474 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0474 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0473 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0473 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0473 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 27 18:46:01 UTC 2024.