Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe thunderstorm risk is anticipated on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible in the central High Plains and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The pattern will remain largely benign and unchanged on D3/Friday, with high pressure across the central US into the Northern Rockies and a cold front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. South of the cold front, very moist and unstable conditions will continue across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern US. Afternoon widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected along and south of the cold front as it slowly shifts southward. A stronger storm or two may be capable of strong to severe wind, particularly across the Carolinas into eastern, Georgia where some better low to mid-level lapse rates are progged. Overall, weak shear should preclude a more widespread organized severe threat. Across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along the high terrain and move into the lower elevations. A stronger storm or two may pose some isolated risk for damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Overall, shear profiles will be weaker than in previous days which would keep this threat too isolated for inclusion of risk areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

MD 1847 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...parts of south central/eastern Illinois into northwestern Indiana and southwestern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301702Z - 301930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may undergo gradual intensification with increasing potential for locally strong to severe wind gusts while advancing eastward around 20-30 kt, into and through mid to late afternoon (2-4 PM CDT/3-5 PM EDT). It is still not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development along a modest eastward propagating convective cold pool has undergone recent renewed intensification, likely aided by easterly low-level updraft inflow of destabilizing boundary-layer air characterized by seasonably high moisture content (including mid/upper 70s surface dew points). The boundary-layer moisture may be contributing to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, forecast soundings indicate that lapse rates in mid/upper-levels are modest to weak. Although a belt of southwesterly flow on the order of 30-40 kts in the 700-500 mb layer may be contributing to at least moderately strong deep-layer shear, deeper-layer mean flow remains a rather modest to weak 15-25 kts. Still, the shear and forcing for ascent associated with a supporting upstream mid-level trough may be sufficient to maintain ongoing activity through this afternoon. Gradually, further insolation, boundary-layer warming and steepening of low-level lapse rates could contribute to further intensification of convection development, with possible developing embedded mesoscale cyclonic circulations and a strengthening cold pool, accompanied by increasing potential for locally strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 41768740 41838540 40718550 38748726 38348881 38878987 39638908 40318882 41768740 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1846 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL MAINE...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 1846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...central Maine...portions of northern New Hampshire and Vermont Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301601Z - 301900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity developing over the next few hours may increasingly pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging wind gusts by 3-5 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...A corridor of stronger, but modest, destabilization is underway across parts of southeastern Ontario and adjacent Quebec through portions of central Maine. This is occurring in response to continuing insolation, beneath the southern periphery of a broad mid-level cold pool associated with upper troughing slowly digging across the eastern Canadian provinces. Forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air associated with broad, increasingly suppressed, ridging further aloft may limit the magnitude of developing CAPE, but thermodynamic profiles may still be sufficiently cool and unstable in mid-levels to support a risk for small to marginally severe hail. Although low-level wind fields are rather modest, deep-layer shear associated with a westerly jet in mid/upper-levels is strong. Flow on the order of 30-50 kt appears as low as the 700-500 layer, contributing to mean flow around 25-30 kts in the lowest 6 km AGL. This may gradually support modest east-southeast storm motions, and potential for locally strong to severe surface gusts, as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen and thunderstorm activity intensifies in peak afternoon destabilization. Deepening convective development is already underway off the higher terrain west of Houlton through northwest of Bangor, upstream into the upper St. Lawrence Valley. This likely will strengthen with the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity during the next few hours. ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... LAT...LON 45696719 44976870 44657152 44657252 45467339 45887244 46097044 46506854 46316779 45696719 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more