Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended range will primarily feature the potential for Northwest flow severe across the Plains. Moderate to strong instability is expected to build across the central Plains and into parts of the northern Plains. A mid-level trough off the California coast at the beginning of the period is forecast to move northward and eventually into southern Canada. Beyond this time, the forecast uncertainty increases. Both the ECMWF and GFS suggest some troughing will advance toward the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the amplitude varies. This will have significant impact on the potential locations of severe weather and the potential for the threat to extend east of the Plains/Upper Midwest. Regardless of the exact solution of the extended range pattern, moderate mid-level flow will likely overspread much of the northern Plains and potentially portions of the central Plains. Where this mid-level flow interacts with the developing instability and thunderstorms, some severe weather is possible. However, the uncertain timing and evolution of the pattern makes identification of these corridors challenging and precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended range will primarily feature the potential for Northwest flow severe across the Plains. Moderate to strong instability is expected to build across the central Plains and into parts of the northern Plains. A mid-level trough off the California coast at the beginning of the period is forecast to move northward and eventually into southern Canada. Beyond this time, the forecast uncertainty increases. Both the ECMWF and GFS suggest some troughing will advance toward the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the amplitude varies. This will have significant impact on the potential locations of severe weather and the potential for the threat to extend east of the Plains/Upper Midwest. Regardless of the exact solution of the extended range pattern, moderate mid-level flow will likely overspread much of the northern Plains and potentially portions of the central Plains. Where this mid-level flow interacts with the developing instability and thunderstorms, some severe weather is possible. However, the uncertain timing and evolution of the pattern makes identification of these corridors challenging and precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central High Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Discussion... Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central High Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Discussion... Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central High Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Discussion... Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central High Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Discussion... Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Friday. ...Discussion... Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more