Severe Storms

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE TCC TO 35 SSE DHT TO BGD TO 25 ENE BGD TO 50 ENE BGD TO 65 NW CSM TO 55 NW CSM TO 50 NNW CSM TO 50 SSW AVK. ..BENTLEY..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-129-031040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ROGER MILLS TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-211-359-375-381-393-483-031040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY HEMPHILL OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A large-scale mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central and western U.S during the mid week. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the central and northern Plains. Within the broader scale flow, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains from Wednesday into Thursday. In spite of relatively weak large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday as instability becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support a potential for isolated severe gust and hail. As the mid-level ridge moves eastward during the day on Thursday, flow is forecast to become southwesterly across the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms that develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota Thursday evening could be associated with a severe threat. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Model forecasts suggest an isolated severe threat will again be possible in the northern Plains on Friday, in the wake of the exiting ridge. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains, as flow remains southwesterly from the Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts develop a relatively large cluster of thunderstorms Saturday evening ahead of the trough from northwestern Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. The models also have strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear in place ahead of the trough within the favored convective zone. This could support a potential for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the steeper lapse rates are forecast to remain further south across the mid Missouri Valley, suggesting there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. On Sunday, the severe threat is forecast to shift southeastward as a front moves across the region. The favored corridor would be along an axis of moderate instability from northeast Nebraska to northwestern Wisconsin. This position of the front and instability axis should be determined by the timing of the mid-level system, which is still considerably uncertain. Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW DHT TO 30 ESE DHT TO 25 N BGD TO 45 NE BGD TO 65 ENE BGD TO 75 NNW CSM TO 35 WSW AVK. ..BENTLEY..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-045-129-030940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM ELLIS ROGER MILLS TXC011-065-087-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-375- 381-393-483-030940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability, forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have some organization. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. ..Broyles.. 08/03/2025 Read more