Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR EASTERN NEVADA...... Primary modification with this forecast update was to expand the Critical fire weather area farther northeast into portions of northeast Utah, far northwestern Colorado, and southwest Wyoming based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Several hours of hot, extremely dry (single digit RH), and windy (sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph) conditions are expected across the Critical fire weather area tomorrow (Monday) afternoon/evening. Fuels across this region remain extremely receptive to fire spread owing to lack of recent appreciable rainfall and subsequent ongoing moderate/severe drought conditions. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible along the interior coastal ranges and foothills of southern/central California and along the eastern slopes of the Sierra foothills. Though, at this time, conditions appear to be too brief/spotty to introduce an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on-track with only minor adjustments made. Please see the previous discussion below fore more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies on Monday. Between the shortwave trough and a midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest, moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin -- characterized by widespread single-digit RH. Over southern/central UT, deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These winds and low RH will lead to critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel trough will aid in high-based thunderstorm development across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies during the afternoon. Around 0.7 inch PW (inverted-V sounding) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across southeastern OR and southwestern ID. Given limited precipitation and receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible (along with strong outflow winds). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 3 18:53:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central/Northern Plains... A large upper ridge will be centered over the Southwestern states on Tuesday, with an upper trough rotating across the top of the ridge over the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing across the western Dakotas at the start of the forecast period, with precip and associated clouds weakening as they spread eastward through the day. Re-development of thunderstorms appears likely in the wake of the morning storms in areas that can destabilize, with a few strong/severe storms expected. Given multiple days of convection prior to Tuesday, confidence is low on favored areas of severe threat. Thus, will maintain a broad MRGL risk at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central High Plains. ...MT... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching the OR/CA coast. This feature will track northeastward and begin affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and western MT by mid-afternoon. These storms will become more numerous and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the evening. Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk at this time. ...High Plains... The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region southward to the OK/TX Panhandles. Any of one of these high-based storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail, but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any part of this corridor at this time. ..Hart.. 08/03/2025 Read more