Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

MD 1943 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1943 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0949 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Areas affected...Northern Nebraska into south-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 140249Z - 140445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will remain possible through the next several hours as an MCS continues to push southeast into Nebraska. However, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated. Downstream watch issuance is currently not expected, but conditions will be monitored. DISCUSSION...An outflow-dominant MCS continues to produce strong to severe winds across south-central SD and north-central NE and GOES IR imagery continues to show robust updraft development within the line. MRMS and regional WSR-88D imagery also shows strong segments within the line capable of producing strong/severe gusts in the near term. However, over the past 30-45 minutes, a gradual net warming of the MCS cloud-top temperatures has been noted, suggesting that the MCS is in the early stages of a weakening trend. The 00z LBF sounding sampled a substantial cap at around 700 mb. Recent RAP analyses hint that this warm layer likely extends northeastward ahead of the MCS within a west/southwest flow regime, and may be contributing to the weakening despite an increase in the 850 mb nocturnal jet. Recent CAM solutions appear to capture this trend as well, and suggest that the MCS will slowly weaken through the 04-06 UTC period. While some severe wind risk may linger beyond the 04 UTC expiration of WW 588, downstream watch issuance is currently not anticipated. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42230211 42360161 42540125 42710089 42850072 43190036 43410026 43600016 43720013 43859951 43369784 43169767 42999766 42789765 42469769 42149787 41719827 41569848 41459872 41369901 41309925 41319943 41359974 42230211 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S AIA TO 10 WNW VTN TO 35 S PIR TO 30 N PIR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1943 ..MOORE..08/14/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-031-075-089-091-103-149-171-140440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN CHERRY GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA ROCK THOMAS SDC015-023-053-065-085-123-140440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRULE CHARLES MIX GREGORY HUGHES LYMAN TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S AIA TO 10 WNW VTN TO 35 S PIR TO 30 N PIR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1943 ..MOORE..08/14/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-031-075-089-091-103-149-171-140440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN CHERRY GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA ROCK THOMAS SDC015-023-053-065-085-123-140440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRULE CHARLES MIX GREGORY HUGHES LYMAN TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 588 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 132045Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Nebraska Western and Central South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm cluster moving out of northeast WY is expected to continue southeastward over the next several hours. This cluster has already produced several gusts around 60 mph. The risk for strong to severe gusts should continue over the next several hours as the cluster moves southeastward into the more moist and unstable airmass downstream across western/central South Dakota and northern Nebraska. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Rapid City SD to 55 miles north northeast of Oneill NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CDR TO 50 WNW VTN TO 40 SSE MBG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942 ..MOORE..08/14/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-031-075-089-091-103-149-161-171-140340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN CHERRY GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS SDC015-023-053-065-075-085-095-121-123-140340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRULE CHARLES MIX GREGORY HUGHES JONES LYMAN MELLETTE TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CDR TO 50 WNW VTN TO 40 SSE MBG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942 ..MOORE..08/14/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-031-075-089-091-103-149-161-171-140340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN CHERRY GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS SDC015-023-053-065-075-085-095-121-123-140340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRULE CHARLES MIX GREGORY HUGHES JONES LYMAN MELLETTE TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 1942 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1942 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Areas affected...South-central South Dakota and north-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 140033Z - 140230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe winds are expected to persist across south-central South Dakota and north-central Nebraska for the next few hours. A supercellular hail threat may materialize ahead of the line, but confidence remains limited. DISCUSSION...The ongoing MCS across SD has become outflow dominant over the past 1-2 hours but continues to produce wind gusts between 55-65 mph per recent reports. Additionally, new updrafts are noted on northern portions of the squall line outflow, suggesting that the MCS is beginning to realize the higher MLCAPE environment downstream. In addition to moving into a more buoyant air mass, a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet over the next few hours will aid in low-level ascent along the outflow and help maintain MCS intensity - especially on the southern end of the line along and south of the NE/SD border. Because of this, the expectation is that a severe wind threat (most likely between 55-70 mph) should continue downstream. Ahead of the MCS, GOES imagery and lightning data continue to show attempts at sustained deep convection along a low-level confluence zone/surface trough. It remains unclear if a sustained storm can emerge from this activity before the arrival of the line, but the environment is conditionally favorable for supercells with an attendant threat for large hail and perhaps a brief tornado given around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH as sampled by the 00z ABR sounding. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 41850069 42410301 42590315 42810296 42980278 43430256 43910229 44510213 44790205 44920179 44639898 44519872 44049859 43339869 42139950 41869997 41810034 41850069 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1941 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1941 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota and adjacent portions of North Dakota and Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132351Z - 140145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota (and eventually far southeast North Dakota and far western Minnesota) will pose an isolated hail risk this evening. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually maturing across northeast SD over the past couple of hours with one weakly organized supercell noted near KABR. This activity has been fairly isolated over the past hour and has periodically intensified to severe limits. More recently, new convection has developed northward near the ND border as warm air advection in the lowest 3 km increases (per the KABR VWP). VWP observations have also sampled strong 0-6 km bulk shear, which should support organized storms given adequate buoyancy on the eastern fringe of the richer low-level moisture plume. The combination of continued ascent and strong shear will maintain some potential for strong to severe convection through the evening hours as the nocturnal low-level jet continues to intensify, though a marginal thermodynamic environment and unfavorable storm motions along the initiation zone (may hinder discrete storm modes) may modulate overall storm intensity. The primary hazard will most likely be large hail, but a few strong/severe wind gusts are also possible. Given the isolated nature of the threat, watch issuance is not expected. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45109856 45789882 46079867 46349837 46439804 46359771 45399637 45109617 44909615 44549645 44509671 44529704 45109856 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis, which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte, Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis, which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte, Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis, which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte, Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2025 Read more