Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Ongoing elevated thunderstorms across parts of eastern SD this morning are occurring in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough and related low-level warm advection. This activity has remained sub-severe through much of the early morning hours, but it could still pose an isolated hail threat in the short term given weak MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear. It remains unclear whether additional thunderstorm development will occur later this afternoon across parts of southern MN and vicinity as the shortwave trough continues eastward across the upper MS Valley. The airmass across this area will gradually destabilize through the day, but capping may tend to inhibit additional development. Still, a conditional threat for isolated severe hail/wind exists if robust thunderstorms can initiate, so have maintained the Marginal Risk across southern MN for this possibility. Thunderstorms across southern Manitoba this morning are expected to generally remain along/north of the international border as they continue eastward into western Ontario. A fairly strong mid/upper-level trough will progress eastward today across Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with the southern fringe of this perturbation glancing the northern Plains later today. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread ND and northern MN late this afternoon though tonight, while a surface cold front advances east-southeastward across the northern Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of the front, with evapotranspiration also aiding surface dewpoints potentially reaching into the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s by early evening. Ample daytime heating and steep lapse rates aloft will aid in the development of at least 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. The primary uncertainty regarding convective development along the front is a capped 850-700 mb layer and weak forcing with southward extent across the northern Plains, as the primary upper trough will remain across Canada through the period. Even so, low-level convergence along the front may become sufficient for cells to initiate by early evening, mainly across parts of eastern ND into northwest MN where MLCIN should be weakest. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some potential for upscale growth into clusters along the front remains apparent this evening into the early overnight hours, with greater severe wind threat. However, inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs; so, the severe wind threat remains uncertain. Finally, scattered high-based thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening farther south across parts of the central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may become capable of producing isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Ongoing elevated thunderstorms across parts of eastern SD this morning are occurring in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough and related low-level warm advection. This activity has remained sub-severe through much of the early morning hours, but it could still pose an isolated hail threat in the short term given weak MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear. It remains unclear whether additional thunderstorm development will occur later this afternoon across parts of southern MN and vicinity as the shortwave trough continues eastward across the upper MS Valley. The airmass across this area will gradually destabilize through the day, but capping may tend to inhibit additional development. Still, a conditional threat for isolated severe hail/wind exists if robust thunderstorms can initiate, so have maintained the Marginal Risk across southern MN for this possibility. Thunderstorms across southern Manitoba this morning are expected to generally remain along/north of the international border as they continue eastward into western Ontario. A fairly strong mid/upper-level trough will progress eastward today across Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with the southern fringe of this perturbation glancing the northern Plains later today. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread ND and northern MN late this afternoon though tonight, while a surface cold front advances east-southeastward across the northern Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of the front, with evapotranspiration also aiding surface dewpoints potentially reaching into the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s by early evening. Ample daytime heating and steep lapse rates aloft will aid in the development of at least 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. The primary uncertainty regarding convective development along the front is a capped 850-700 mb layer and weak forcing with southward extent across the northern Plains, as the primary upper trough will remain across Canada through the period. Even so, low-level convergence along the front may become sufficient for cells to initiate by early evening, mainly across parts of eastern ND into northwest MN where MLCIN should be weakest. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some potential for upscale growth into clusters along the front remains apparent this evening into the early overnight hours, with greater severe wind threat. However, inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs; so, the severe wind threat remains uncertain. Finally, scattered high-based thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening farther south across parts of the central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may become capable of producing isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Ongoing elevated thunderstorms across parts of eastern SD this morning are occurring in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough and related low-level warm advection. This activity has remained sub-severe through much of the early morning hours, but it could still pose an isolated hail threat in the short term given weak MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear. It remains unclear whether additional thunderstorm development will occur later this afternoon across parts of southern MN and vicinity as the shortwave trough continues eastward across the upper MS Valley. The airmass across this area will gradually destabilize through the day, but capping may tend to inhibit additional development. Still, a conditional threat for isolated severe hail/wind exists if robust thunderstorms can initiate, so have maintained the Marginal Risk across southern MN for this possibility. Thunderstorms across southern Manitoba this morning are expected to generally remain along/north of the international border as they continue eastward into western Ontario. A fairly strong mid/upper-level trough will progress eastward today across Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with the southern fringe of this perturbation glancing the northern Plains later today. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread ND and northern MN late this afternoon though tonight, while a surface cold front advances east-southeastward across the northern Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of the front, with evapotranspiration also aiding surface dewpoints potentially reaching into the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s by early evening. Ample daytime heating and steep lapse rates aloft will aid in the development of at least 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. The primary uncertainty regarding convective development along the front is a capped 850-700 mb layer and weak forcing with southward extent across the northern Plains, as the primary upper trough will remain across Canada through the period. Even so, low-level convergence along the front may become sufficient for cells to initiate by early evening, mainly across parts of eastern ND into northwest MN where MLCIN should be weakest. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some potential for upscale growth into clusters along the front remains apparent this evening into the early overnight hours, with greater severe wind threat. However, inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs; so, the severe wind threat remains uncertain. Finally, scattered high-based thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening farther south across parts of the central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may become capable of producing isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Ongoing elevated thunderstorms across parts of eastern SD this morning are occurring in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough and related low-level warm advection. This activity has remained sub-severe through much of the early morning hours, but it could still pose an isolated hail threat in the short term given weak MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear. It remains unclear whether additional thunderstorm development will occur later this afternoon across parts of southern MN and vicinity as the shortwave trough continues eastward across the upper MS Valley. The airmass across this area will gradually destabilize through the day, but capping may tend to inhibit additional development. Still, a conditional threat for isolated severe hail/wind exists if robust thunderstorms can initiate, so have maintained the Marginal Risk across southern MN for this possibility. Thunderstorms across southern Manitoba this morning are expected to generally remain along/north of the international border as they continue eastward into western Ontario. A fairly strong mid/upper-level trough will progress eastward today across Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with the southern fringe of this perturbation glancing the northern Plains later today. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread ND and northern MN late this afternoon though tonight, while a surface cold front advances east-southeastward across the northern Plains through the period. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of the front, with evapotranspiration also aiding surface dewpoints potentially reaching into the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s by early evening. Ample daytime heating and steep lapse rates aloft will aid in the development of at least 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. The primary uncertainty regarding convective development along the front is a capped 850-700 mb layer and weak forcing with southward extent across the northern Plains, as the primary upper trough will remain across Canada through the period. Even so, low-level convergence along the front may become sufficient for cells to initiate by early evening, mainly across parts of eastern ND into northwest MN where MLCIN should be weakest. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some potential for upscale growth into clusters along the front remains apparent this evening into the early overnight hours, with greater severe wind threat. However, inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs; so, the severe wind threat remains uncertain. Finally, scattered high-based thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening farther south across parts of the central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may become capable of producing isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/14/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge is forecast to build over the Plains and Rockies through Tuesday/D6, with the upper high retrograding from the central Plains to the Four Corners. East of the ridge axis, northwest midlevel flow of 20-30 kt will persist over the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, with a large area of moisture and instability roughly from MN/IA to IL/IN. This pattern should support corridors of thunderstorms in the low-level warm advection zone, or along the northern instability gradient through Tuesday/D6. While areas of strong wind gusts will be possible, the overall severe probably is less than the 15% threshold over this large zone. The upper ridge may flatten over the northern Rockies/Plains beyond D6, with perhaps an eventual northwest flow regime coinciding with residual instability, supporting at least minimal severe potential over the northern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge is forecast to build over the Plains and Rockies through Tuesday/D6, with the upper high retrograding from the central Plains to the Four Corners. East of the ridge axis, northwest midlevel flow of 20-30 kt will persist over the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, with a large area of moisture and instability roughly from MN/IA to IL/IN. This pattern should support corridors of thunderstorms in the low-level warm advection zone, or along the northern instability gradient through Tuesday/D6. While areas of strong wind gusts will be possible, the overall severe probably is less than the 15% threshold over this large zone. The upper ridge may flatten over the northern Rockies/Plains beyond D6, with perhaps an eventual northwest flow regime coinciding with residual instability, supporting at least minimal severe potential over the northern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge is forecast to build over the Plains and Rockies through Tuesday/D6, with the upper high retrograding from the central Plains to the Four Corners. East of the ridge axis, northwest midlevel flow of 20-30 kt will persist over the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, with a large area of moisture and instability roughly from MN/IA to IL/IN. This pattern should support corridors of thunderstorms in the low-level warm advection zone, or along the northern instability gradient through Tuesday/D6. While areas of strong wind gusts will be possible, the overall severe probably is less than the 15% threshold over this large zone. The upper ridge may flatten over the northern Rockies/Plains beyond D6, with perhaps an eventual northwest flow regime coinciding with residual instability, supporting at least minimal severe potential over the northern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge is forecast to build over the Plains and Rockies through Tuesday/D6, with the upper high retrograding from the central Plains to the Four Corners. East of the ridge axis, northwest midlevel flow of 20-30 kt will persist over the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, with a large area of moisture and instability roughly from MN/IA to IL/IN. This pattern should support corridors of thunderstorms in the low-level warm advection zone, or along the northern instability gradient through Tuesday/D6. While areas of strong wind gusts will be possible, the overall severe probably is less than the 15% threshold over this large zone. The upper ridge may flatten over the northern Rockies/Plains beyond D6, with perhaps an eventual northwest flow regime coinciding with residual instability, supporting at least minimal severe potential over the northern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge is forecast to build over the Plains and Rockies through Tuesday/D6, with the upper high retrograding from the central Plains to the Four Corners. East of the ridge axis, northwest midlevel flow of 20-30 kt will persist over the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, with a large area of moisture and instability roughly from MN/IA to IL/IN. This pattern should support corridors of thunderstorms in the low-level warm advection zone, or along the northern instability gradient through Tuesday/D6. While areas of strong wind gusts will be possible, the overall severe probably is less than the 15% threshold over this large zone. The upper ridge may flatten over the northern Rockies/Plains beyond D6, with perhaps an eventual northwest flow regime coinciding with residual instability, supporting at least minimal severe potential over the northern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge is forecast to build over the Plains and Rockies through Tuesday/D6, with the upper high retrograding from the central Plains to the Four Corners. East of the ridge axis, northwest midlevel flow of 20-30 kt will persist over the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, with a large area of moisture and instability roughly from MN/IA to IL/IN. This pattern should support corridors of thunderstorms in the low-level warm advection zone, or along the northern instability gradient through Tuesday/D6. While areas of strong wind gusts will be possible, the overall severe probably is less than the 15% threshold over this large zone. The upper ridge may flatten over the northern Rockies/Plains beyond D6, with perhaps an eventual northwest flow regime coinciding with residual instability, supporting at least minimal severe potential over the northern Plains. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills eastward to Wisconsin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of thunderstorms through the period. Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI, where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts. Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable, deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact corridor for isolated severe at this time. Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later updates. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills eastward to Wisconsin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of thunderstorms through the period. Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI, where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts. Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable, deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact corridor for isolated severe at this time. Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later updates. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills eastward to Wisconsin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of thunderstorms through the period. Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI, where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts. Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable, deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact corridor for isolated severe at this time. Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later updates. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills eastward to Wisconsin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of thunderstorms through the period. Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI, where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts. Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable, deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact corridor for isolated severe at this time. Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later updates. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more