Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most. ...Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8... Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast. Read more

MD 1961 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1961 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern SD into southwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594... Valid 160718Z - 160845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of severe gusts is possible overnight. DISCUSSION...An intensifying storm cluster across south-central SD recently produced a 79 mph gust in Tripp County, with other measured gusts 60-70 mph over the last hour. With strong to extreme downstream instability (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer shear, this cluster may become further organized and potentially evolve into a bowing MCS as it tracks from south-central into eastern SD overnight, to the north of a surface boundary near the SD/NE border. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs support this scenario. While MLCINH will tend to increase with time and eastward extent, favorable buoyancy and lapse rates will support potential for a swath of strong to severe gusts with an organized MCS, potentially near/above 75 mph on at least a localized basis. Isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest embedded updrafts, as well as with any semi-discrete cells that may develop within the low-level warm-advection zone in advance of the MCS. Given the organization and eastward acceleration of this system, eventual downstream watch issuance appears increasingly likely. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44499964 44919802 45089672 45099576 44269552 43569550 43369579 43299679 43219800 43169862 43129913 43109984 43319961 43689943 44009951 44499964 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0595 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-029-035-037-039-043-045- 049-051-053-057-059-061-067-069-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101- 107-111-115-125-160840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS BROWN BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLARK CODINGTON DAVISON DAY DEUEL DOUGLAS EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT GREGORY HAMLIN HAND HANSON HUTCHINSON HYDE JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY POTTER SANBORN SPINK TURNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 ..DEAN..08/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-029-035-037-039-043-045- 049-051-053-057-059-061-067-069-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101- 107-111-115-125-160840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS BROWN BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLARK CODINGTON DAVISON DAY DEUEL DOUGLAS EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT GREGORY HAMLIN HAND HANSON HUTCHINSON HYDE JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY POTTER SANBORN SPINK TURNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will likely be in place across parts of central and northern Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/16/2025 Read more