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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...KY/TN... Thunderstorms are ongoing across central KY/middle TN. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon into a moist and increasingly unstable air mass over eastern KY/TN and eventually into western WV/VA. Most model guidance suggests that storms will intensify through the day, with an increasing risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Refer to MCD #902 for further details. ...AR into the TN Valley this afternoon/evening... In the wake of the aforementioned convection, rapid heating is occurring across eastern AR/west TN/northern MS. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s and steep mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and only a weak cap. This will lead to the development of multiple clusters of intense thunderstorms (including supercells) that will track eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. The initial storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. As the activity progresses eastward, the risk of damaging winds will increase with a persistent risk of tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Storms are expected to get as far east as northwest GA tonight before slowly weakening. ...MO/IL... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough and associated surface low over IA/MO. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds have transported mid 60s dewpoints into central IL, where strong heating is now occurring. This will result in moderate CAPE across the region and encourage rapid thunderstorm development over northeast and east-central MO by mid-afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms will track across IL and into central IN this evening. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...KY/TN... Thunderstorms are ongoing across central KY/middle TN. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon into a moist and increasingly unstable air mass over eastern KY/TN and eventually into western WV/VA. Most model guidance suggests that storms will intensify through the day, with an increasing risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Refer to MCD #902 for further details. ...AR into the TN Valley this afternoon/evening... In the wake of the aforementioned convection, rapid heating is occurring across eastern AR/west TN/northern MS. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s and steep mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and only a weak cap. This will lead to the development of multiple clusters of intense thunderstorms (including supercells) that will track eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. The initial storms will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. As the activity progresses eastward, the risk of damaging winds will increase with a persistent risk of tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Storms are expected to get as far east as northwest GA tonight before slowly weakening. ...MO/IL... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough and associated surface low over IA/MO. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds have transported mid 60s dewpoints into central IL, where strong heating is now occurring. This will result in moderate CAPE across the region and encourage rapid thunderstorm development over northeast and east-central MO by mid-afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms will track across IL and into central IN this evening. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/20/2025 Read more

MD 0901 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0901 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Areas affected...parts of Deep South Texas through middle Texas coastal areas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201440Z - 201645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated thunderstorm or two might still undergo further intensification across parts of Deep South Texas through middle Texas coastal areas into early afternoon. This could be accompanied by a risk for large hail and perhaps locally damaging wind gusts, but it currently appears unlikely that a severe weather watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have recently developed near/south and east of the San Antonio vicinity. This has occurred despite the presence of notable inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed layer air above a seasonably moist boundary layer. However, forcing for ascent accompanying a subtle mid/upper perturbation, and associated speed maximum within the subtropical westerlies, has apparently been sufficient to at least fleetingly weaken the mid-level capping. Based on the latest Rapid Refresh, it is not clear how long this will persist, given warming forecast around the 700 mb level across Deep South Texas and middle Texas coastal areas during the next few hours. But, given the strong deep-layer shear, and thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates and sizable mixed-layer CAPE, conditionally supportive of supercells capable of producing large to giant hail, it may not entirely be out of the question that vigorous convection could persist across middle Texas coastal areas through 16-18Z. ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28149720 28309825 29619870 29869627 29129457 27979566 27989633 28149720 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Due to the dry conditions, four Wyoming counties—Hot Springs, Crook, Niobrara and Platte—were under a Stage 1 fire ban, which prohibits fireworks and open fires. Campfires were only allowed at residences and established campsites with a fire ring. KWYY-FM (Casper, Wyo.), May 20, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 20 13:58:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID/DEEP SOUTH TO TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through this evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could be strong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and large to isolated significant severe hail will be possible. ...Mid/Deep South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a negatively tilted, large-scale mid to upper-level trough centered over the Dakotas southeastward through the mid MS Valley and Ozarks. Several thunderstorms clusters are ongoing within a larger corridor of convection from the OH Valley southwestward into the lower MS Valley. This activity is occurring to the east/southeast of a gradually filling cyclone forecast to move from the lower MO Valley eastward into the southwest Great Lakes by late tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook due in part to general consistency in model guidance and observational trends noted this morning. Richer low-level moisture from west-central KY southward into the Gulf Coast states will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by the early afternoon in areas void of recent convective outflow and associated cloud debris. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle. Forecast hodographs coupled with progged buoyancy will support a mix of supercells and line segments this afternoon. The initial supercell activity will potentially yield a threat for large to very large hail. It appears the greatest risk for supercell tornadoes may exist from northern MS east-northeastward into middle TN. Morning convection and associated destabilization concerns preclude higher tornado risk probabilities. However, models continue to indicate upscale growth into several bands will occur late this afternoon through the late evening as storms move east across the Enhanced (level 3) Risk area. Have enlarged severe/damaging wind probabilities across AL/GA to account for confidence in a continuation of a wind threat persisting through the evening. ...IL/IN... Within the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved mid to upper speed max, a dry slot and attendant corridor of steep lapse rates will likely evolve across portions of MO to IL/IN from midday into the afternoon. Destabilization will likely be less across the mid MS Valley eastward into IN, with the richer moisture confined south of residual outflow and warm frontal zone over the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the evening via a mix of shorter-lived supercells and organized multicells. Isolated to scattered coverage of severe and all hazards are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes during the evening. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/20/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Western and Northern Arkansas Missouri Far Eastern Oklahoma North-Central and Northeast Texas Southern Illinois * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Western and Northern Arkansas Missouri Far Eastern Oklahoma North-Central and Northeast Texas Southern Illinois * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A significant severe weather episode should continue tonight across parts of the South-Central States. Strong tornadoes, scattered to widespread damaging wind swaths, and very large hail remain possible. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more