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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Wed Feb 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will be maintained over much of the central/eastern CONUS on Thursday, with multiple shorter wavelength impulses moving generally eastward across this region. Due to a prior frontal passage and surface high pressure remaining centered over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture is expected to remain quite meager over land. This will limit instability and the potential for thunderstorms across the CONUS on Thursday. ..Gleason.. 02/09/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 09 2022 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... An amplified large-scale pattern will persist with the continuance of mean longwave troughing east of the Rockies. The CONUS-wide prevalence of cool/stable conditions will likely preclude thunderstorm development. That said, a few thunderstorms will remain a possibility offshore near a front near/just east of the Florida Keys and south Florida. Elsewhere, across the Ohio Valley, while low/mid-level lapse rates will be rather steep (> 7 C/km) with daytime heating/mixing, low-level moisture will be quite limited within the continental polar air mass. The scenario should be insufficient for deep convection/lightning this afternoon/early evening across northern Kentucky and southern Ohio and vicinity. ..Guyer.. 02/09/2022 Read more

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for several prescribed burns to take place on E.O. Siecke State Forest land during 2022. Burn units identified as stands 1, 2, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 20, 21, 22, 31, 32 and 33 will be burned for a total of 640 acres. Stand 20 – 68 acresProposed burning dates: 11/15/2021 – 5/15/2022 Stands 1, 2, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17 – 335 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 – 5/1/2022 Stands 21, 31, 32 – 152 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2022 – 5/1/2022 Stand 33 – 17 acresProposed burning dates: 2/9/2022 Stands 22, 33 – 68 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2022 – 5/1/2022 These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including reducing the accumulation of hazardous fuels, improve forest health, improve access and visibility for forest management activities and improve wildlife habitat. Each prescribed burn unit has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each unit have a...

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for several prescribed burns to take place on Fairchild State Forest land during 2022. During the year, burn units identified as stands 3b, 4, 11b, 18, 19, 22b and Forage 7, 8, 9 will be burned for a total of 387.5 acres. These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including reducing the accumulation of hazardous fuels, improve forest health, improve access and visibility for forest management activities and improve wildfire habitat. Each prescribed burn unit has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each unit have a high potential for success. Texas A&M Forest Service personnel will monitor all prescribed burns to evaluate achievement of goals and help guide future prescriptions. Stand 3b – 10.5 acresProposed burning dates: 1/28/2022 Stand 4 – 33 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2021 – 4/29/2022 Stand 22b – 33 acresProposed burning dates: 1/28/2022 Forage 7, 8, 9 –...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Wed Feb 09 2022 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added for parts of the northeastern TX Panhandle, western and north-central OK, and south-central KS. Here, clear skies and downslope flow should favor deep boundary-layer mixing and RH reductions into the middle/upper teens to lower/middle 20s by this afternoon (based on modified AMA/DDC/OUN/LMN 12Z soundings). While a weak pressure gradient should generally limit sustained winds to around 10-15 mph across this area, a belt of fast flow aloft should favor frequent wind gusts of 20-25 mph as the boundary layer deepens to around 2-3 km. In addition, fuels are favorable for the development and spread of wildfires over the area, with ERCs in the 70th-80th percentile (aided by ongoing drought and a lack of substantial precipitation). Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains valid, with localized elevated conditions possible over north-central KS and the TX South Plains (see below). ..Weinman.. 02/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Feb 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will dominate the upper pattern across the central and eastern U.S. today as surface high pressure persists across the inter-mountain West. This high pressure will spill into the Plains states, fostering weak, dry northerly surface flow. Dry offshore flow will also persist across California. In the Plains states, fuels are very receptive to fire spread across most locales. However, Elevated conditions are expected to remain localized given the lack of a widespread, stronger surface wind field. The best chance for any Elevated conditions would be across the central Plains, where surface winds may exceed 15 mph and briefly coincide with minimum RH around 20-25 percent by afternoon peak heating. While winds will be weaker across western Texas, RH may drop into the 10-15 percent range, supporting localized wildfire-spread potential wherever gusty winds may occur. Elevated to Critical meteorological surface conditions are expected to accompany the offshore flow across southern California through the day tomorrow. However, high fuel moisture will limit widespread significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Mountainair Ranger District Plans Pile BurnStarting as early February 10th    Albuquerque, NM – February 8, 2022 – Cibola National Forest and National Grasslands fire crews are preparing to proceed with pile burning on the Mountainair Ranger District in the vicinity of Red Canyon Campground pending suitable conditions. The Capilla Project area is located within and adjacent to the Red Canyon Campground accessed by the NM Hwy 131 to FS Road 253. The Capilla Project Area is located approximately 5 miles southwest of the community of Manzano adjacent to the Red Canyon Campground.  The size of this project is 8 acres of dispersed piles.  Visitors should avoid the area during prescribed burn operations for their safety, and the safety of the firefighters. See attached project maps. Winter is an optimal time to burn piled slash and woody debris from earlier forest restoration work because snow on the ground keeps the fire from spreading to adjacent vegetation. Generally, pile burns...

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 8 13:18:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 8 13:18:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Tue Feb 08 2022 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous Unites States today. ...Southeast FL/Keys through tonight... A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf of Mexico to north FL overnight, while a quasi-stationary front persists just off the southeast FL coast and near/just south of the Keys. The stronger/deeper buoyancy will remain confined to the southeast Gulf of Mexico, and the threat for thunderstorms should remain a little west of the Keys. Shallow convection will also occur near or just off the southeast FL coast, but buoyancy profiles appear to be too shallow/warm to support any appreciable threat for lightning. ..Thompson.. 02/08/2022 Read more

Huron-Manistee National Forests 2022 Winter Prescribed FireThis winter, fire personnel on the Huron-Manistee National Forests will be engaged in prescribed under burning and pile burning treatment of forest vegetation. In order to meet future challenges in the most effective way possible, the Forests will continue to use prescribed burning as a tool in our mission to reduce the build-up of hazardous fuels, restore forest ecosystems, and improve the resiliency and safety of communities within the wildland urban interface.All prescribed fire projects will be conducted in accordance with an approved burn plan. Burn plans describe the specific conditions under which burns must be conducted including the weather, number of personnel, and opportunities to minimize smoke impacts. Some of our planned projects include burning piles of stacked materials and low to moderate intensity understory burns of vegetation on the forest floor. The main goals of these projects are to reduce the severity...

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers announced on Feb. 3 that there was insufficient water to carry out a special test flow of spring releases of water from Fort Peck Dam in Montana to encourage the viability of the endangered pallid sturgeon. Omaha World-Herald (Neb.), Feb 7, 2022 While the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers intends to test whether controlled water releases from Fort Peck Dam could aid the spawn of pallid sturgeon, there is not enough water to conduct such a study until there is more water in the system, which will likely not be in 2022. Billings Gazette (Mont.), Dec 1, 2021

Gov. Mark Gordon signed a second executive order easing rules on hay transport that will remain in effect through Feb. 28. Wyoming Business Report (Cheyenne, Wyo.), Jan 31, 2022 Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon signed an executive order allowing motor carriers transporting hay to operate outside of regular operating hours and to move larger loads due to drought conditions that have plagued the state this summer. Buckrail (Jackson, Wyo.), Sept. 23, 2021

Minimum water releases from Gavins Point Dam are scheduled this winter to conserve more water in the Missouri River Mainstem reservoir system while still meeting the needs of the municipal, industrial and powerplant water intakes along the lower river, according to the Corps. Billings Gazette (Mont.), Jan 6, 2022

Texas A&M Forest Service is planning for several prescribed burns to take place on Camp Maxey Texas Army National Guard land during 2022. Burn units identified as units 6 and 12 will be burned for a total of 1,494 acres. Unit 6 – 830 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2022 – 4/30/2022 Unit 12 – 664 acresProposed burning dates: 11/1/2022 – 4/30/2022 These burns are designed to meet multiple land management objectives including reducing the accumulation of hazardous fuels, improve forest health, improve access and visibility for forest management activities and improve wildlife habitat. Each prescribed burn unit has defined weather parameters and firing patterns to ensure the objectives for each unit have a high potential for success. Texas A&M Forest Service personnel will monitor all prescribed burns to evaluate achievement of goals and help guide future prescriptions. Nearby residents can expect some lingering smoke effects overnight after the burns and may see some...

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 4 15:23:01 UTC 2022.

MD 0130 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN PA...NORTHERN NJ...SOUTHERN NY...AND NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0920 AM CST Fri Feb 04 2022 Areas affected...Parts of far northeastern PA...northern NJ...southern NY...and New England Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 041520Z - 042115Z SUMMARY...A mix of sleet and freezing rain should continue through much of the day where surface temperatures fall below freezing. Freezing rain rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours appear possible. DISCUSSION...A broad swath of precipitation is ongoing this morning from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England associated with large-scale lift preceding an upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Latest surface analysis also shows a front extending from VA/MD northeastward to southern NY and coastal southern New England. The 12Z observed sounding from ALB showed a +2.7C warm nose centered around 825 mb and a deep sub-freezing layer from that level to the surface. This is supporting melting and then complete refreezing of hydrometeors aloft. Multiple sleet observations have been reported in a narrow corridor as a result, generally extending from parts of northeastern PA to eastern NY and southern NH. Latest RAP forecast soundings farther south into northern NJ, southern NY, and MA show a more pronounced warm nose. Indeed, mostly freezing rain is occurring across these areas where surface temperatures have fallen below freezing behind the front. Current expectations are for the front to continue advancing slowly southward through the day, with air temperatures gradually decreasing as well. This process should support a gradual transition from rain to freezing rain this morning and afternoon from parts of northeastern PA into northern NJ, southern NY, CT, RI, and much of MA. This includes the NYC metro area. Similarly, freezing rain that is ongoing farther north should gradually transition to sleet and perhaps even some snow as the warm nose aloft is slowly eroded with the approach of the upper trough. Given current radar reflectivity trends, freezing rain rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours appear plausible, with locally higher accretion rates to about 0.10 inch per hour possible. ..Gleason.. 02/04/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40597385 40597426 40797556 40937571 41607520 42247463 42827388 43217150 43117062 42557046 41597070 41367175 41207310 40597385 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Fri Feb 04 2022 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears minimal today over the conterminous U.S. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will trend toward eastern troughing again through the period, as two primary shortwave perturbations phase: 1. A northern-stream trough now over MN and the eastern Dakotas, forecast to dig southeastward to the central Appalachians and amplify by 12Z tomorrow. 2. A southern-stream trough evident in moisture-channel imagery from central KS across the TX Panhandle, south-central NM and southeastern AZ. This feature will maintain substantially positive tilt as it shifts eastward to GA, central AL, southern MS, and southwestern LA by the end of the period. A surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across northern VA, western NC, western GA, and the western FL Panhandle -- will move eastward to southeastward, offshore from New England by 00Z. At that time, the front should extend from the Hampton Roads region across the eastern Carolinas to near coastal GA, and over extreme northern peninsular FL. By 12Z, the front will have cleared all the Atlantic Coast except central FL, extending from there southwestward over the south-central Gulf. ...Coastal NC to northeastern FL... Widely scattered to scattered non-severe thunderstorms have been common just ahead of the front through the preceding overnight hours, over parts of GA, AL and the FL Panhandle. This convection should persist through the afternoon with minor intensification possible, until the front passes offshore from GA and the Carolinas. Isolated gusts approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out; however, the severe threat appears too weak to maintain an unconditional outlook over coastal GA. With large-scale ascent lagging the front and prefrontal convective band, temperatures aloft and related weak mid/upper-level lapse rates should not change much above the front at any given latitude. A pronounced stable layer in midlevels (500-600 mb) -- observed in 12Z TLH/CHS soundings, is forecast to remain along/ahead of the convective band through the afternoon. With northward extent, already modest low-level destabilization will weaken, and prefrontal surface winds should veer gradually with time, shrinking hodographs. A corridor of 200-700 J/kg MLCAPE is expected, amidst 20-30-kt effective-shear magnitudes and around 35-45-kt cloud-layer shear. ..Edwards/Goss.. 02/04/2022 Read more