Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a cold front exiting the South Atlantic coast on D3/Sunday, thunder potential appears minimal for several days as northwesterly low-level flow dominates across the Gulf. This regime will likely be further reinforced by a shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest and eventually the Southeast mid-week. Above-average agreement exists among ensemble/deterministic 00Z guidance with this scenario. Towards late week, a full-latitude longwave trough is progged to reach the West Coast, with low-probability thunder potential along coastal CA. Lee cyclone development adjacent to the southern Rockies should support modified return flow over the western Gulf beginning around D7/Thursday. This should yield increasing thunder potential in the southern Great Plains by D8-D9/next Friday-Saturday, with the possibility of a positive-tilt shortwave trough ejecting across the Southwest. Although guidance spread does increase by this time frame, overall severe potential appears low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...South Atlantic States... Consensus of 00Z non-NAM guidance indicates a slightly faster ejection of an amplifying shortwave trough on Sunday across the central to southern Appalachians to the East Coast by Sunday night. A swath of scattered, non-severe convection should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from VA arcing south to southwest into parts of north to west-central FL, within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the surface cold front. The spatiotemporal window appears very limited for weak destabilization ahead of the front in the eastern NC vicinity, prior to low-level hodographs substantially shrinking as flow becomes veered. As such, severe storm potential appears too negligible to warrant probabilities at this cycle. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ..Grams.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more