Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Sunday from east Texas extending eastward across Louisiana into southern and central Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will be possible. ...East Texas/Louisiana/Southern and Central Mississippi/Far Southwest Alabama... An upper-level low, and an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move into the southern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, a low will translate eastward across north Texas during the day. The moist sector will likely be located from east Texas extending eastward to the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. The low-level moisture combined with warming surface temperatures will result in weak destabilization over much of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast region. Thunderstorms may be ongoing in east Texas at the start of the period near the western edge of the moist sector. As a complex of convection organizes and intensifies, a severe threat is expected to develop across far east Texas and western Louisiana during the mid to late morning. The severe threat should persist into the afternoon, as a cluster of strong to severe storms moves across Louisiana and south-central Mississippi. During the afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across the western part of the moist sector in the Sabine River Valley. Forecast soundings in the Sabine River Valley have 0-6 km shear in the 65 to 75 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will likely support an isolated large hail threat with supercells that develop. Further east from central Louisiana into south-central Mississippi, low-level shear is forecast to increase during the mid to late afternoon as a low-level jet moves across the region. Forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity to near 300 m2/s2 by late afternoon. This will likely support a tornado threat within the eastward moving cluster, mainly with the more organized discrete rotating storms. The stronger cells within this eastward moving cluster should have a wind-damage threat, associated with supercells and short intense line segments. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Sunday from east Texas extending eastward across Louisiana into southern and central Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will be possible. ...East Texas/Louisiana/Southern and Central Mississippi/Far Southwest Alabama... An upper-level low, and an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move into the southern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, a low will translate eastward across north Texas during the day. The moist sector will likely be located from east Texas extending eastward to the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. The low-level moisture combined with warming surface temperatures will result in weak destabilization over much of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast region. Thunderstorms may be ongoing in east Texas at the start of the period near the western edge of the moist sector. As a complex of convection organizes and intensifies, a severe threat is expected to develop across far east Texas and western Louisiana during the mid to late morning. The severe threat should persist into the afternoon, as a cluster of strong to severe storms moves across Louisiana and south-central Mississippi. During the afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across the western part of the moist sector in the Sabine River Valley. Forecast soundings in the Sabine River Valley have 0-6 km shear in the 65 to 75 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will likely support an isolated large hail threat with supercells that develop. Further east from central Louisiana into south-central Mississippi, low-level shear is forecast to increase during the mid to late afternoon as a low-level jet moves across the region. Forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity to near 300 m2/s2 by late afternoon. This will likely support a tornado threat within the eastward moving cluster, mainly with the more organized discrete rotating storms. The stronger cells within this eastward moving cluster should have a wind-damage threat, associated with supercells and short intense line segments. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Sunday from east Texas extending eastward across Louisiana into southern and central Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will be possible. ...East Texas/Louisiana/Southern and Central Mississippi/Far Southwest Alabama... An upper-level low, and an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move into the southern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, a low will translate eastward across north Texas during the day. The moist sector will likely be located from east Texas extending eastward to the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. The low-level moisture combined with warming surface temperatures will result in weak destabilization over much of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast region. Thunderstorms may be ongoing in east Texas at the start of the period near the western edge of the moist sector. As a complex of convection organizes and intensifies, a severe threat is expected to develop across far east Texas and western Louisiana during the mid to late morning. The severe threat should persist into the afternoon, as a cluster of strong to severe storms moves across Louisiana and south-central Mississippi. During the afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across the western part of the moist sector in the Sabine River Valley. Forecast soundings in the Sabine River Valley have 0-6 km shear in the 65 to 75 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will likely support an isolated large hail threat with supercells that develop. Further east from central Louisiana into south-central Mississippi, low-level shear is forecast to increase during the mid to late afternoon as a low-level jet moves across the region. Forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity to near 300 m2/s2 by late afternoon. This will likely support a tornado threat within the eastward moving cluster, mainly with the more organized discrete rotating storms. The stronger cells within this eastward moving cluster should have a wind-damage threat, associated with supercells and short intense line segments. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more

Residents of Crystal were urged to use water wisely as the Mississippi Headwaters Watershed was in a drought phase. KSTP-TV ABC 5 Minneapolis/St. Paul (Minn.), Aug 11, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The high cost of hay and other items connected with showing livestock has made it difficult for FFA and 4-H students to raise an animal to show. The price of a bale of hay might range from $125 to $150. Consequently, fewer students were showing animals this year. KETK (Tyler, Texas), Feb 9, 2024

A dairy farmer in Genesee County left the cattle business because the cost of hauling water made milk production unprofitable. The farmer planned to continue growing crops. There was concern for other dairy farmers as wells have not recovered despite 14 inches of snow. No rain has fallen. More precipitation was desperately needed so there is moisture for the upcoming growing season. The Batavian (N.Y.), Feb 8, 2024

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated damaging wind gusts, hail and a marginal tornado threat, will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves through a trough in northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into south-central and southeast Texas. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development during the day on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the southeast of the front is forecast to contribute to weak destabilization, with MLCAPE generally peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg by afternoon. This, combined with 0-6 km shear forecast in the 60 to 70 knot range (evident on forecast soundings), should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across south-central and southeast Texas. The hail threat should be concentrated a bit further west over the southern Texas Hill Country where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Two negative factors on Saturday include the weak destabilization and a poorly timed shortwave, which is forecast to move away from the region on Saturday. For these reasons, any severe threat over south-central and southeast Texas is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated damaging wind gusts, hail and a marginal tornado threat, will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves through a trough in northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into south-central and southeast Texas. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development during the day on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the southeast of the front is forecast to contribute to weak destabilization, with MLCAPE generally peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg by afternoon. This, combined with 0-6 km shear forecast in the 60 to 70 knot range (evident on forecast soundings), should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across south-central and southeast Texas. The hail threat should be concentrated a bit further west over the southern Texas Hill Country where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Two negative factors on Saturday include the weak destabilization and a poorly timed shortwave, which is forecast to move away from the region on Saturday. For these reasons, any severe threat over south-central and southeast Texas is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated damaging wind gusts, hail and a marginal tornado threat, will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves through a trough in northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into south-central and southeast Texas. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development during the day on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the southeast of the front is forecast to contribute to weak destabilization, with MLCAPE generally peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg by afternoon. This, combined with 0-6 km shear forecast in the 60 to 70 knot range (evident on forecast soundings), should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across south-central and southeast Texas. The hail threat should be concentrated a bit further west over the southern Texas Hill Country where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Two negative factors on Saturday include the weak destabilization and a poorly timed shortwave, which is forecast to move away from the region on Saturday. For these reasons, any severe threat over south-central and southeast Texas is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more