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No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 10 23:46:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 10 23:46:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0117 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101920Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance remains unlikely in the short term. DISCUSSION...Convection across parts of central TX has recently shown some signs of intensification as a subtle mid-level vorticity maximum ejects northeastward over the southern Plains within a broad zone of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. This activity should tend to remain elevated this afternoon, being located generally along/north of a weak boundary evident in 19Z surface observations. Even though low-level moisture remains limited, modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates and filtered daytime heating beneath a thick cirrus deck have allowed around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE to develop across this region. Recent VWPs from KEWX/KGRK show weak low-level flow veering and strengthening with height above 3 km, and especially above 6 to 8 km, where a very strong southwesterly upper-level jet is present per latest mesoanalysis. Long, nearly straight hodographs through the cloud-bearing layer, with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear, should support supercells with associated threat for mainly severe hail this afternoon. Strong/gusty winds may also occur with any supercell near the front as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Regardless, large-scale ascent is fairly weak, and overall coverage of robust thunderstorms remains uncertain. This, coupled with only a marginally favorable thermodynamic environment, suggests that the overall severe threat will probably tend to remain fairly isolated over the next few hours. Therefore, watch issuance is unlikely in the short term. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29449997 30289963 31409872 31329796 30839710 30529697 30109717 29299824 29179886 29449997 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z In the wake of a seasonably strong mid-level low on Day2/Sunday, breezy northwesterly winds will overspread much of Texas on Monday. However, rainfall with the aforementioned trough should limit fuel receptiveness and maintain sufficient relative humidity to preclude the need for fire weather highlights. Throughout the remainder of the week, the mid-level flow should tend toward zonal flow and the development of a lee trough. Southerly surface winds across the Plains should increase within this pattern. However, forecast precipitation amounts associated with the current weekend system (Day 1 and 2) should preclude fuels from being too receptive to fire starts. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm areas based on observations. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. For more short-term information on central Texas see MCD #117. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a surface low will slowly deepen across Texas as a mid-level trough overspreads the region. Windy conditions are expected in vicinity of this surface low. Some of these stronger winds will overspread a dry airmass near the Rio Grande. In this vicinity, winds of 25 mph with relative humidity in the teens is expected. However, ERC percentiles remain above average in this region due to the wet pattern. Some increase in initial attack may occur, but large-fire potential is expected to be too minimal to warrant an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more