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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fuels remain mostly moist across the CONUS. In addition, cool and/or dry conditions will prevail today across most of the CONUS. Therefore, fire-weather concerns remain minimal. Wetting rain and mountain snow is expected across Arizona today which will further delay any fire-weather concerns across the region despite ongoing long-term drought conditions. ..Bentley.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fuels remain mostly moist across the CONUS. In addition, cool and/or dry conditions will prevail today across most of the CONUS. Therefore, fire-weather concerns remain minimal. Wetting rain and mountain snow is expected across Arizona today which will further delay any fire-weather concerns across the region despite ongoing long-term drought conditions. ..Bentley.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fuels remain mostly moist across the CONUS. In addition, cool and/or dry conditions will prevail today across most of the CONUS. Therefore, fire-weather concerns remain minimal. Wetting rain and mountain snow is expected across Arizona today which will further delay any fire-weather concerns across the region despite ongoing long-term drought conditions. ..Bentley.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fuels remain mostly moist across the CONUS. In addition, cool and/or dry conditions will prevail today across most of the CONUS. Therefore, fire-weather concerns remain minimal. Wetting rain and mountain snow is expected across Arizona today which will further delay any fire-weather concerns across the region despite ongoing long-term drought conditions. ..Bentley.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona into far southwest New Mexico. Isolated hail and gusty winds are expected to be the primary hazards. ...Southwest... A mid/upper-level cyclone initially off the southern CA/Baja coast is forecast to move east-northeastward and eventually evolve into a shortwave trough, as it begins to interact with a northern-stream shortwave trough moving across the Northwest. Precipitation will likely be rather widespread during the morning across parts of Arizona, but some diurnal destabilization will be possible as colder temperatures aloft overspread modest low-level moisture. Two areas of possible strong-storm development are apparent. The first is across southeast AZ along the southern periphery of the early-day precipitation shield, where storms that develop in an area of somewhat stronger instability across northwest Sonora will move northeastward across the international border. While instability will likely remain weak in this region, favorable large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear may support a threat of isolated hail and/or gusty/damaging winds with the strongest storms, especially if a supercell or two can be sustained. The second area of possible strong-storm development will be closer to the ejecting low across southwest AZ. Cold temperatures aloft (at or below -20C at 500 mb) will compensate somewhat for marginal diurnal heating, with MLCAPE possibly increasing to around 500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with isolated hail potential, though backing flow aloft near the low may result in a quick evolution to linear or cluster mode. Late in the evening, convection will spread into parts of central/southern NM. While a stronger elevated storm or two will be possible overnight, diminishing instability will likely limit late-night severe potential. ..Dean/Bentley.. 12/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona into far southwest New Mexico. Isolated hail and gusty winds are expected to be the primary hazards. ...Southwest... A mid/upper-level cyclone initially off the southern CA/Baja coast is forecast to move east-northeastward and eventually evolve into a shortwave trough, as it begins to interact with a northern-stream shortwave trough moving across the Northwest. Precipitation will likely be rather widespread during the morning across parts of Arizona, but some diurnal destabilization will be possible as colder temperatures aloft overspread modest low-level moisture. Two areas of possible strong-storm development are apparent. The first is across southeast AZ along the southern periphery of the early-day precipitation shield, where storms that develop in an area of somewhat stronger instability across northwest Sonora will move northeastward across the international border. While instability will likely remain weak in this region, favorable large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear may support a threat of isolated hail and/or gusty/damaging winds with the strongest storms, especially if a supercell or two can be sustained. The second area of possible strong-storm development will be closer to the ejecting low across southwest AZ. Cold temperatures aloft (at or below -20C at 500 mb) will compensate somewhat for marginal diurnal heating, with MLCAPE possibly increasing to around 500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with isolated hail potential, though backing flow aloft near the low may result in a quick evolution to linear or cluster mode. Late in the evening, convection will spread into parts of central/southern NM. While a stronger elevated storm or two will be possible overnight, diminishing instability will likely limit late-night severe potential. ..Dean/Bentley.. 12/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona into far southwest New Mexico. Isolated hail and gusty winds are expected to be the primary hazards. ...Southwest... A mid/upper-level cyclone initially off the southern CA/Baja coast is forecast to move east-northeastward and eventually evolve into a shortwave trough, as it begins to interact with a northern-stream shortwave trough moving across the Northwest. Precipitation will likely be rather widespread during the morning across parts of Arizona, but some diurnal destabilization will be possible as colder temperatures aloft overspread modest low-level moisture. Two areas of possible strong-storm development are apparent. The first is across southeast AZ along the southern periphery of the early-day precipitation shield, where storms that develop in an area of somewhat stronger instability across northwest Sonora will move northeastward across the international border. While instability will likely remain weak in this region, favorable large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear may support a threat of isolated hail and/or gusty/damaging winds with the strongest storms, especially if a supercell or two can be sustained. The second area of possible strong-storm development will be closer to the ejecting low across southwest AZ. Cold temperatures aloft (at or below -20C at 500 mb) will compensate somewhat for marginal diurnal heating, with MLCAPE possibly increasing to around 500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with isolated hail potential, though backing flow aloft near the low may result in a quick evolution to linear or cluster mode. Late in the evening, convection will spread into parts of central/southern NM. While a stronger elevated storm or two will be possible overnight, diminishing instability will likely limit late-night severe potential. ..Dean/Bentley.. 12/22/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona into far southwest New Mexico. Isolated hail and gusty winds are expected to be the primary hazards. ...Southwest... A mid/upper-level cyclone initially off the southern CA/Baja coast is forecast to move east-northeastward and eventually evolve into a shortwave trough, as it begins to interact with a northern-stream shortwave trough moving across the Northwest. Precipitation will likely be rather widespread during the morning across parts of Arizona, but some diurnal destabilization will be possible as colder temperatures aloft overspread modest low-level moisture. Two areas of possible strong-storm development are apparent. The first is across southeast AZ along the southern periphery of the early-day precipitation shield, where storms that develop in an area of somewhat stronger instability across northwest Sonora will move northeastward across the international border. While instability will likely remain weak in this region, favorable large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear may support a threat of isolated hail and/or gusty/damaging winds with the strongest storms, especially if a supercell or two can be sustained. The second area of possible strong-storm development will be closer to the ejecting low across southwest AZ. Cold temperatures aloft (at or below -20C at 500 mb) will compensate somewhat for marginal diurnal heating, with MLCAPE possibly increasing to around 500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, with isolated hail potential, though backing flow aloft near the low may result in a quick evolution to linear or cluster mode. Late in the evening, convection will spread into parts of central/southern NM. While a stronger elevated storm or two will be possible overnight, diminishing instability will likely limit late-night severe potential. ..Dean/Bentley.. 12/22/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of southern California and Arizona, and also from north Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone off of the southern CA/Baja coasts is forecast to move eastward tonight. Most thunderstorm activity will likely remain offshore tonight in closer proximity to the low, but some threat for isolated thunderstorms will continue across near coastal areas of southern CA, and potentially expand into southeast CA/southern AZ overnight. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out near the coastline, but weak instability should limit the severe-thunderstorm threat. Convection may increase later tonight across parts of northern OK and southern KS, in association with a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across the central Plains. While instability will remain weak, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with the strongest convection. ..Dean.. 12/22/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of southern California and Arizona, and also from north Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone off of the southern CA/Baja coasts is forecast to move eastward tonight. Most thunderstorm activity will likely remain offshore tonight in closer proximity to the low, but some threat for isolated thunderstorms will continue across near coastal areas of southern CA, and potentially expand into southeast CA/southern AZ overnight. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out near the coastline, but weak instability should limit the severe-thunderstorm threat. Convection may increase later tonight across parts of northern OK and southern KS, in association with a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across the central Plains. While instability will remain weak, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with the strongest convection. ..Dean.. 12/22/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 21 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 21 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more