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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNE AUS TO 35 ESE ACT TO 25 E CRS TO 45 ESE DAL. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-041-051-073-161-183-185-203-213-225-287-289-293-313- 331-347-365-395-401-419-423-455-467-471-111340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE FREESTONE GREGG GRIMES HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SHELBY SMITH TRINITY VAN ZANDT WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W AUS TO 15 WSW ACT TO 15 W CRS TO 20 SSE DAL. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-031-041-051-073-145-161-183-185-203-213-225-257- 287-289-293-309-313-331-347-349-365-395-401-419-423-453-455-467- 471-491-111240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE FALLS FREESTONE GREGG GRIMES HARRISON HENDERSON HOUSTON KAUFMAN LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SHELBY SMITH TRAVIS TRINITY VAN ZANDT WALKER WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W TPL TO 15 NNW ACT TO 25 S FTW. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-027-031-041-051-053-073-099-139-145-161-183-185-203- 213-217-225-251-257-281-287-289-293-309-313-331-347-349-365-395- 401-419-423-453-455-467-471-491-111140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CHEROKEE CORYELL ELLIS FALLS FREESTONE GREGG GRIMES HARRISON HENDERSON HILL HOUSTON JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SHELBY SMITH TRAVIS TRINITY VAN ZANDT WALKER WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 0122 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15...16... FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...central into northeastern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15...16... Valid 110920Z - 111115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15, 16 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will overspread the Interstates 35 and 45 into 20 corridors of central into northeastern Texas through 5-7 AM CST, with a few embedded stronger storms posing a risk for severe hail. DISCUSSION...As the primary mid-level jet streak (including 70-90 kt around 500 mb) continues to propagate across the Texas Big Bend into the Edwards Plateau through 11-13Z, relatively warm and/or warming lower/mid-tropospheric air appears likely to be maintained above potentially unstable boundary layer air now present across the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal plain. Stronger forcing for ascent and associated convective development probably will remain focused well to the north of the quasi-stationary to slow moving warm frontal zone, now roughly near/north of San Antonio through the College Station and Huntsville vicinities. To the north of the frontal zone, forecast soundings suggest that the cool near-surface layer remains stable with regard to potential for strong downdrafts to reach the surface. Furthermore, lower tropospheric wind fields preceding the convective cluster are rather modest in strength, and there is little indication of strong lower/mid-tropospheric rear-inflow developing, despite the organized character of the elevated convection. So the potential for strong convective wind gusts appears likely to remain low through at least 11-13Z. But elevated instability and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear may continue to support locally strong embedded supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail as convection spreads across the I-35/45 into I-20 corridors of central through northeastern Texas. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32319767 32999536 32169483 31279628 30309824 30309949 30879910 31439826 32319767 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow is forecast to develop across much of the continental United States on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At this time, high pressure is forecast to be dominant across the nation making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms could develop along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture. A severe threat is not expected due to limited instability. From Saturday into Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward across the Southeast. This dry and cold airmass should be unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the weekend. Read more