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MD 0127 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...West to northwest Texas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111656Z - 112100Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow with snowfall rates approaching 1 in/hour should continue into the early afternoon hours across portions of west to northwest Texas. DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours across western TX have reported periods of visibility reductions down to 1/2 to 1/4 mile, indicative of moderate to heavy snowfall rates. This trend is expected to persist for the next few hours as lift within the left-exit region of an upper jet continues to coincide with a mid-level deformation zone at around 700 mb. While the dendritic growth zone is expected to remain somewhat shallow (around 50-100 mb deep), ascent through the 700-500 mb layer with lapse rates approaching 7-8 C/km should continue to promote moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1 inch/hour. Weak frontogenesis should limit the potential for long duration snow bands, but latest forecast guidance suggests that favorable overlap of mid/upper-level ascent will linger over west to northwest TX through early afternoon. ..Moore.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... LAT...LON 34730173 34740092 34680017 34519985 34249969 33939969 33649984 33430016 33410058 33370131 33440205 33490231 33740273 34070294 34370283 34610248 34730173 Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W POE TO 15 W MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-037-039-041-043-059-069-077-079-097- 107-115-125-127-112140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WEST FELICIANA WINN MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-075-077- 079-085-089-099-101-113-121-123-127-129-149-157-112140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MLU TO 55 SSE GLH TO 20 SE GWO TO 15 S UOX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC065-083-112140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE MADISON RICHLAND MSC007-019-025-051-087-097-103-105-155-159-163-112140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLAY HOLMES LOWNDES MONTGOMERY NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA WEBSTER WINSTON YAZOO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SABINE RIVER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms continues from far eastern Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Sabine Valley eastward into MS... Strong to severe cellular storms are ongoing near the Sabine River, while a larger cluster of semi-elevated storms races east across north-central MS. Surface analysis shows gradual warming and destabilization is taking place along the warm front from central LA into central MS, with the moist air mass generally uncapped. Favored areas for increasing severe hail and tornado risk will be with the activity near the Sabine River extending east/northeast along the warm front, and, perhaps near southern part of the north-central MS cluster as it accesses a more favorable air mass over time. Strong deep-layer shear will support long-lived severe storms, while modest SRH/low-level shear support a tornado risk with any robust supercells. For more information see mesoscale discussion 128. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. Read more