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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more