Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast through the extended forecast period, with multiple shortwave troughs advancing eastward across the CONUS. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern Plains from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. With a cold frontal intrusion expected into the northern Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return ahead of this upper trough should remain rather limited. While some potential for mainly elevated thunderstorms is apparent across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely owing to the weak instability forecast. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this shortwave trough will merge with another upper trough and amplify as it moves quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast from Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday. With an associated surface low progged to scrape along or just south of the Gulf Coast, severe potential will likewise tend to remain offshore where greater low-level moisture should exist. Another upper trough/low may advance quickly eastward from the Southwest across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late next week. But, the lack of appreciable low-level moisture over land suggests that overall severe potential should remain low through Day 8/Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast through the extended forecast period, with multiple shortwave troughs advancing eastward across the CONUS. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern Plains from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. With a cold frontal intrusion expected into the northern Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return ahead of this upper trough should remain rather limited. While some potential for mainly elevated thunderstorms is apparent across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely owing to the weak instability forecast. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this shortwave trough will merge with another upper trough and amplify as it moves quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast from Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday. With an associated surface low progged to scrape along or just south of the Gulf Coast, severe potential will likewise tend to remain offshore where greater low-level moisture should exist. Another upper trough/low may advance quickly eastward from the Southwest across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late next week. But, the lack of appreciable low-level moisture over land suggests that overall severe potential should remain low through Day 8/Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast through the extended forecast period, with multiple shortwave troughs advancing eastward across the CONUS. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern Plains from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. With a cold frontal intrusion expected into the northern Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return ahead of this upper trough should remain rather limited. While some potential for mainly elevated thunderstorms is apparent across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely owing to the weak instability forecast. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this shortwave trough will merge with another upper trough and amplify as it moves quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast from Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday. With an associated surface low progged to scrape along or just south of the Gulf Coast, severe potential will likewise tend to remain offshore where greater low-level moisture should exist. Another upper trough/low may advance quickly eastward from the Southwest across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late next week. But, the lack of appreciable low-level moisture over land suggests that overall severe potential should remain low through Day 8/Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast through the extended forecast period, with multiple shortwave troughs advancing eastward across the CONUS. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern Plains from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. With a cold frontal intrusion expected into the northern Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return ahead of this upper trough should remain rather limited. While some potential for mainly elevated thunderstorms is apparent across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely owing to the weak instability forecast. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this shortwave trough will merge with another upper trough and amplify as it moves quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast from Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday. With an associated surface low progged to scrape along or just south of the Gulf Coast, severe potential will likewise tend to remain offshore where greater low-level moisture should exist. Another upper trough/low may advance quickly eastward from the Southwest across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late next week. But, the lack of appreciable low-level moisture over land suggests that overall severe potential should remain low through Day 8/Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast through the extended forecast period, with multiple shortwave troughs advancing eastward across the CONUS. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern Plains from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. With a cold frontal intrusion expected into the northern Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return ahead of this upper trough should remain rather limited. While some potential for mainly elevated thunderstorms is apparent across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely owing to the weak instability forecast. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this shortwave trough will merge with another upper trough and amplify as it moves quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast from Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday. With an associated surface low progged to scrape along or just south of the Gulf Coast, severe potential will likewise tend to remain offshore where greater low-level moisture should exist. Another upper trough/low may advance quickly eastward from the Southwest across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late next week. But, the lack of appreciable low-level moisture over land suggests that overall severe potential should remain low through Day 8/Friday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast through the extended forecast period, with multiple shortwave troughs advancing eastward across the CONUS. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern Plains from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. With a cold frontal intrusion expected into the northern Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return ahead of this upper trough should remain rather limited. While some potential for mainly elevated thunderstorms is apparent across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely owing to the weak instability forecast. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this shortwave trough will merge with another upper trough and amplify as it moves quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast from Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday. With an associated surface low progged to scrape along or just south of the Gulf Coast, severe potential will likewise tend to remain offshore where greater low-level moisture should exist. Another upper trough/low may advance quickly eastward from the Southwest across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late next week. But, the lack of appreciable low-level moisture over land suggests that overall severe potential should remain low through Day 8/Friday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should progress eastward from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes across the OH/TN Valleys on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move over the southern Plains through the day, and eventually merge with the eastern CONUS upper trough Sunday night into early Monday morning. With dry and/or stable conditions expected to persist over a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal, with one possible exception. Some low-level moisture should return northward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and coastal TX late Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough. Enough weak MUCAPE may develop to support elevated thunderstorms from parts of the Upper TX Coast into LA through early Monday morning. ..Gleason.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should progress eastward from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes across the OH/TN Valleys on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move over the southern Plains through the day, and eventually merge with the eastern CONUS upper trough Sunday night into early Monday morning. With dry and/or stable conditions expected to persist over a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal, with one possible exception. Some low-level moisture should return northward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and coastal TX late Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough. Enough weak MUCAPE may develop to support elevated thunderstorms from parts of the Upper TX Coast into LA through early Monday morning. ..Gleason.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should progress eastward from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes across the OH/TN Valleys on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move over the southern Plains through the day, and eventually merge with the eastern CONUS upper trough Sunday night into early Monday morning. With dry and/or stable conditions expected to persist over a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal, with one possible exception. Some low-level moisture should return northward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and coastal TX late Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough. Enough weak MUCAPE may develop to support elevated thunderstorms from parts of the Upper TX Coast into LA through early Monday morning. ..Gleason.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should progress eastward from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes across the OH/TN Valleys on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move over the southern Plains through the day, and eventually merge with the eastern CONUS upper trough Sunday night into early Monday morning. With dry and/or stable conditions expected to persist over a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal, with one possible exception. Some low-level moisture should return northward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and coastal TX late Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough. Enough weak MUCAPE may develop to support elevated thunderstorms from parts of the Upper TX Coast into LA through early Monday morning. ..Gleason.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should progress eastward from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes across the OH/TN Valleys on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move over the southern Plains through the day, and eventually merge with the eastern CONUS upper trough Sunday night into early Monday morning. With dry and/or stable conditions expected to persist over a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal, with one possible exception. Some low-level moisture should return northward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and coastal TX late Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough. Enough weak MUCAPE may develop to support elevated thunderstorms from parts of the Upper TX Coast into LA through early Monday morning. ..Gleason.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should progress eastward from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes across the OH/TN Valleys on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move over the southern Plains through the day, and eventually merge with the eastern CONUS upper trough Sunday night into early Monday morning. With dry and/or stable conditions expected to persist over a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal, with one possible exception. Some low-level moisture should return northward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and coastal TX late Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough. Enough weak MUCAPE may develop to support elevated thunderstorms from parts of the Upper TX Coast into LA through early Monday morning. ..Gleason.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should progress eastward from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes across the OH/TN Valleys on Sunday. A separate shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move over the southern Plains through the day, and eventually merge with the eastern CONUS upper trough Sunday night into early Monday morning. With dry and/or stable conditions expected to persist over a large majority of the CONUS, thunderstorm potential should remain minimal, with one possible exception. Some low-level moisture should return northward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and coastal TX late Sunday night ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough. Enough weak MUCAPE may develop to support elevated thunderstorms from parts of the Upper TX Coast into LA through early Monday morning. ..Gleason.. 12/29/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Saturday across the country. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with afternoon RH minimums expected to fall into the low teens from NM into western TX. Mid-level flow will gradually become more zonal over the southern Rockies through the day, and may result in pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across central to eastern NM. However, winds are expected to remain sufficiently weak to confine fire weather conditions to the immediate lee of terrain features, and unreceptive fuels should further modulate the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today. Per recent surface observations, cool continental air continues to overspread the Plains into the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley behind an occluded surface low. Breezy northwest winds may coincide with diurnal RH reductions below 25% across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon. However, fuels are currently not receptive due to recent precipitation and cool conditions. ..Moore.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more