Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A more progressive upper-level pattern will emerge during the Day 4-8 period. A series of upper shortwave troughs will move through southern-stream flow across the southern tier of the U.S. during this time. The first shortwave will move across the southern Plains to the Southeast on Days 4-5/Sun-Mon. In response, a surface low will develop over Texas, moving east over the northern Gulf or very near the LA/MS/AL coast through Monday. Modest low-level moisture may return as far north as the TX coast eastward. However, given the forecast track of the low being very near the Gulf coast, or over the northern Gulf waters, better quality moisture is expected to remain further south, limiting severe potential inland. A cold front will dive southeast across the Gulf on Day 5/Mon. Strong surface high pressure in the wake of this system will develop over the Plains to the southeastern U.S. for much of the rest of the period, resulting a dry and stable conditions. Another shortwave may move across the same general area (southern Plains to Southeast) late in the period around Day 7/Wed or Day 8/Thu. Another surface low could then track across the Gulf, though medium-range guidance varies considerably in this scenario. Nevertheless, most guidance suggests any low that develops will likely remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A more progressive upper-level pattern will emerge during the Day 4-8 period. A series of upper shortwave troughs will move through southern-stream flow across the southern tier of the U.S. during this time. The first shortwave will move across the southern Plains to the Southeast on Days 4-5/Sun-Mon. In response, a surface low will develop over Texas, moving east over the northern Gulf or very near the LA/MS/AL coast through Monday. Modest low-level moisture may return as far north as the TX coast eastward. However, given the forecast track of the low being very near the Gulf coast, or over the northern Gulf waters, better quality moisture is expected to remain further south, limiting severe potential inland. A cold front will dive southeast across the Gulf on Day 5/Mon. Strong surface high pressure in the wake of this system will develop over the Plains to the southeastern U.S. for much of the rest of the period, resulting a dry and stable conditions. Another shortwave may move across the same general area (southern Plains to Southeast) late in the period around Day 7/Wed or Day 8/Thu. Another surface low could then track across the Gulf, though medium-range guidance varies considerably in this scenario. Nevertheless, most guidance suggests any low that develops will likely remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central California, mainly Saturday morning. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Pacific coast will continue to shift east through the period, becoming oriented over the Great Basin by Sunday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning near the central CA coast. This activity will likely continue into midday before thunderstorm chances diminish as the trough moves east. Dry and stable conditions across much of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central California, mainly Saturday morning. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Pacific coast will continue to shift east through the period, becoming oriented over the Great Basin by Sunday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning near the central CA coast. This activity will likely continue into midday before thunderstorm chances diminish as the trough moves east. Dry and stable conditions across much of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central California, mainly Saturday morning. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Pacific coast will continue to shift east through the period, becoming oriented over the Great Basin by Sunday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning near the central CA coast. This activity will likely continue into midday before thunderstorm chances diminish as the trough moves east. Dry and stable conditions across much of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central California, mainly Saturday morning. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Pacific coast will continue to shift east through the period, becoming oriented over the Great Basin by Sunday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning near the central CA coast. This activity will likely continue into midday before thunderstorm chances diminish as the trough moves east. Dry and stable conditions across much of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central California, mainly Saturday morning. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Pacific coast will continue to shift east through the period, becoming oriented over the Great Basin by Sunday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning near the central CA coast. This activity will likely continue into midday before thunderstorm chances diminish as the trough moves east. Dry and stable conditions across much of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity elsewhere. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the northern/central California coast on Friday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS on Friday with a trough slowly migrating across the eastern U.S., while an upper ridge shifts east across the Intermountain West/Rockies. The main feature of interest with regards to thunderstorm potential will be an upper trough over the eastern Pacific, shifting east toward the Pacific coast late in the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will bring increasing low- and mid-level moisture to coastal CA. Steepening midlevel lapse rates via cooling aloft will be sufficient for the development of weak instability Friday night/early Saturday morning. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along the northern and central CA coast, mainly after 00z. Severe storms are not expected. Dry and stable conditions across most of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the northern/central California coast on Friday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS on Friday with a trough slowly migrating across the eastern U.S., while an upper ridge shifts east across the Intermountain West/Rockies. The main feature of interest with regards to thunderstorm potential will be an upper trough over the eastern Pacific, shifting east toward the Pacific coast late in the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will bring increasing low- and mid-level moisture to coastal CA. Steepening midlevel lapse rates via cooling aloft will be sufficient for the development of weak instability Friday night/early Saturday morning. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along the northern and central CA coast, mainly after 00z. Severe storms are not expected. Dry and stable conditions across most of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the northern/central California coast on Friday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS on Friday with a trough slowly migrating across the eastern U.S., while an upper ridge shifts east across the Intermountain West/Rockies. The main feature of interest with regards to thunderstorm potential will be an upper trough over the eastern Pacific, shifting east toward the Pacific coast late in the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will bring increasing low- and mid-level moisture to coastal CA. Steepening midlevel lapse rates via cooling aloft will be sufficient for the development of weak instability Friday night/early Saturday morning. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along the northern and central CA coast, mainly after 00z. Severe storms are not expected. Dry and stable conditions across most of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the northern/central California coast on Friday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS on Friday with a trough slowly migrating across the eastern U.S., while an upper ridge shifts east across the Intermountain West/Rockies. The main feature of interest with regards to thunderstorm potential will be an upper trough over the eastern Pacific, shifting east toward the Pacific coast late in the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will bring increasing low- and mid-level moisture to coastal CA. Steepening midlevel lapse rates via cooling aloft will be sufficient for the development of weak instability Friday night/early Saturday morning. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along the northern and central CA coast, mainly after 00z. Severe storms are not expected. Dry and stable conditions across most of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Florida Keys and far south Florida today. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central and eastern states today. A broad area of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Southeast through tonight. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward today across the Gulf of Mexico and FL. A remnant cold front located over the FL Straits should tend to remain south of the Keys and south FL as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with most guidance showing northerly low-level winds prevailing across these areas. Still, enough MUCAPE should be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this morning. Some guidance shows a loosely organized band/cluster of convection approaching the FL Keys at the start of the period (around 12Z). This activity should generally remain elevated, especially with northward extent into south FL. Even so, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur over nearshore waters as these thunderstorms move quickly eastward over the FL Straits and towards the Bahamas through the day. Thunderstorm potential across the remainder of the CONUS appears minimal today and tonight. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Florida Keys and far south Florida today. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central and eastern states today. A broad area of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Southeast through tonight. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward today across the Gulf of Mexico and FL. A remnant cold front located over the FL Straits should tend to remain south of the Keys and south FL as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with most guidance showing northerly low-level winds prevailing across these areas. Still, enough MUCAPE should be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this morning. Some guidance shows a loosely organized band/cluster of convection approaching the FL Keys at the start of the period (around 12Z). This activity should generally remain elevated, especially with northward extent into south FL. Even so, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur over nearshore waters as these thunderstorms move quickly eastward over the FL Straits and towards the Bahamas through the day. Thunderstorm potential across the remainder of the CONUS appears minimal today and tonight. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Florida Keys and far south Florida today. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central and eastern states today. A broad area of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Southeast through tonight. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward today across the Gulf of Mexico and FL. A remnant cold front located over the FL Straits should tend to remain south of the Keys and south FL as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with most guidance showing northerly low-level winds prevailing across these areas. Still, enough MUCAPE should be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this morning. Some guidance shows a loosely organized band/cluster of convection approaching the FL Keys at the start of the period (around 12Z). This activity should generally remain elevated, especially with northward extent into south FL. Even so, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur over nearshore waters as these thunderstorms move quickly eastward over the FL Straits and towards the Bahamas through the day. Thunderstorm potential across the remainder of the CONUS appears minimal today and tonight. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Florida Keys and far south Florida today. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central and eastern states today. A broad area of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Southeast through tonight. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward today across the Gulf of Mexico and FL. A remnant cold front located over the FL Straits should tend to remain south of the Keys and south FL as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with most guidance showing northerly low-level winds prevailing across these areas. Still, enough MUCAPE should be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this morning. Some guidance shows a loosely organized band/cluster of convection approaching the FL Keys at the start of the period (around 12Z). This activity should generally remain elevated, especially with northward extent into south FL. Even so, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur over nearshore waters as these thunderstorms move quickly eastward over the FL Straits and towards the Bahamas through the day. Thunderstorm potential across the remainder of the CONUS appears minimal today and tonight. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Florida Keys and far south Florida today. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central and eastern states today. A broad area of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Southeast through tonight. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward today across the Gulf of Mexico and FL. A remnant cold front located over the FL Straits should tend to remain south of the Keys and south FL as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with most guidance showing northerly low-level winds prevailing across these areas. Still, enough MUCAPE should be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this morning. Some guidance shows a loosely organized band/cluster of convection approaching the FL Keys at the start of the period (around 12Z). This activity should generally remain elevated, especially with northward extent into south FL. Even so, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur over nearshore waters as these thunderstorms move quickly eastward over the FL Straits and towards the Bahamas through the day. Thunderstorm potential across the remainder of the CONUS appears minimal today and tonight. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some moderately breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday as the mid-level trough shifts eastward. However, temperatures will be cool and fuels remain moist across these areas. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, moist fuels are present across most of the CONUS which precludes any fire-weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some moderately breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday as the mid-level trough shifts eastward. However, temperatures will be cool and fuels remain moist across these areas. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, moist fuels are present across most of the CONUS which precludes any fire-weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some moderately breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday as the mid-level trough shifts eastward. However, temperatures will be cool and fuels remain moist across these areas. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, moist fuels are present across most of the CONUS which precludes any fire-weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some moderately breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday as the mid-level trough shifts eastward. However, temperatures will be cool and fuels remain moist across these areas. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, moist fuels are present across most of the CONUS which precludes any fire-weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 12/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more