Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little chance of thunderstorms will exist across the country today. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-air pattern will persist today, with a trough exiting the East Coast, and another dropping south over the upper MS Valley. At the surface, relatively stable air will exist due to high pressure and offshore winds over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. To the west, a highly amplified upper trough near the West Coast will move east, eventually reaching UT/AZ early Sunday. While cool midlevel temperatures will exist beneath this trough, winds veering to westerly with its passage will result in downward motion and drying across much of the region. Precipitation chances will be maximized early in the day, and forecast soundings indicate little instability present to support thunderstorms within the north/south oriented precipitation band which is forecast to dwindle. As such, less than 10% thunderstorm probabilities are forecast for today. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday morning. Little change was needed at 01Z, as lightning activity is minimal across the CONUS. Cooling aloft will continue along the West Coast through tonight, and a few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible near a cold front as it affects parts of the northern and central CA coastal area. Weak instability and little low-level shear beneath the upper trough axis will preclude any severe weather threat. Elsewhere, lift associated with the eastern trough will continue to shift east off the Coast this evening. Scattered low-topped convective showers may produce isolated lightning flashes over southeast VA, prior to moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday morning. Little change was needed at 01Z, as lightning activity is minimal across the CONUS. Cooling aloft will continue along the West Coast through tonight, and a few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible near a cold front as it affects parts of the northern and central CA coastal area. Weak instability and little low-level shear beneath the upper trough axis will preclude any severe weather threat. Elsewhere, lift associated with the eastern trough will continue to shift east off the Coast this evening. Scattered low-topped convective showers may produce isolated lightning flashes over southeast VA, prior to moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is expected through Saturday morning. Little change was needed at 01Z, as lightning activity is minimal across the CONUS. Cooling aloft will continue along the West Coast through tonight, and a few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible near a cold front as it affects parts of the northern and central CA coastal area. Weak instability and little low-level shear beneath the upper trough axis will preclude any severe weather threat. Elsewhere, lift associated with the eastern trough will continue to shift east off the Coast this evening. Scattered low-topped convective showers may produce isolated lightning flashes over southeast VA, prior to moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/30/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 29 21:49:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 29 21:49:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are not expected during the extended forecast period, though locally elevated conditions are possible over the southern High Plains on D3/Sunday. ...D3 - Sunday/Southern High Plains... On D3 Sunday, a shortwave disturbance will move across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with an enhanced belt of westerly flow overspreading portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Poor recoveries are expected overnight D2 - Saturday into D3 - Sunday. The strengthening downslope regime will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 10-20 mph. A cool and wet period within the last seven days across this region has left fuels moist and less receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are not expected during the extended forecast period, though locally elevated conditions are possible over the southern High Plains on D3/Sunday. ...D3 - Sunday/Southern High Plains... On D3 Sunday, a shortwave disturbance will move across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with an enhanced belt of westerly flow overspreading portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Poor recoveries are expected overnight D2 - Saturday into D3 - Sunday. The strengthening downslope regime will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 10-20 mph. A cool and wet period within the last seven days across this region has left fuels moist and less receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are not expected during the extended forecast period, though locally elevated conditions are possible over the southern High Plains on D3/Sunday. ...D3 - Sunday/Southern High Plains... On D3 Sunday, a shortwave disturbance will move across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with an enhanced belt of westerly flow overspreading portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Poor recoveries are expected overnight D2 - Saturday into D3 - Sunday. The strengthening downslope regime will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 10-20 mph. A cool and wet period within the last seven days across this region has left fuels moist and less receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are not expected during the extended forecast period, though locally elevated conditions are possible over the southern High Plains on D3/Sunday. ...D3 - Sunday/Southern High Plains... On D3 Sunday, a shortwave disturbance will move across the Southwest into the southern High Plains with an enhanced belt of westerly flow overspreading portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Poor recoveries are expected overnight D2 - Saturday into D3 - Sunday. The strengthening downslope regime will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent with sustained winds around 10-20 mph. A cool and wet period within the last seven days across this region has left fuels moist and less receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Northern/central CA coast through Saturday morning... No changes to previous outlook. In association with a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward, a front and coincident rain band will spread inland over the central/northern CA coast late today into tonight. Gradual steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates as the mid levels cool will contribute to weak buoyancy rooted near the surface within and west of the frontal band. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible, primarily near the coast tonight through Saturday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Northern/central CA coast through Saturday morning... No changes to previous outlook. In association with a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward, a front and coincident rain band will spread inland over the central/northern CA coast late today into tonight. Gradual steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates as the mid levels cool will contribute to weak buoyancy rooted near the surface within and west of the frontal band. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible, primarily near the coast tonight through Saturday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Northern/central CA coast through Saturday morning... No changes to previous outlook. In association with a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward, a front and coincident rain band will spread inland over the central/northern CA coast late today into tonight. Gradual steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates as the mid levels cool will contribute to weak buoyancy rooted near the surface within and west of the frontal band. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible, primarily near the coast tonight through Saturday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Northern/central CA coast through Saturday morning... No changes to previous outlook. In association with a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward, a front and coincident rain band will spread inland over the central/northern CA coast late today into tonight. Gradual steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates as the mid levels cool will contribute to weak buoyancy rooted near the surface within and west of the frontal band. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible, primarily near the coast tonight through Saturday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made; see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 12/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/ ...Northern/central CA coast through Saturday morning... No changes to previous outlook. In association with a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward, a front and coincident rain band will spread inland over the central/northern CA coast late today into tonight. Gradual steepening of low-midlevel lapse rates as the mid levels cool will contribute to weak buoyancy rooted near the surface within and west of the frontal band. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible, primarily near the coast tonight through Saturday morning. Read more